Canada’s political environment appears to be in flux, as the threats of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, the resignation of Justin Trudeau and the resulting Liberal leadership race have jostled what had been a steady trendline in the polls. What to make of the diverging numbers and how do parties have to adjust their strategy as everything shifts beneath their feet?Plus, we also discuss the writ drop in Ontario. Has Doug Ford made the right call in calling an early election, or has he taken a big risk?Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns. Dan is also hosting the Race to Replace limited podcast series on the Liberal leadership contest.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
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47:46
Ep. #137: Freeland is out. Is Trudeau next?
Chrystia Freeland’s resignation as finance minister on Monday has thrown Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government into chaos. What should we make of this unpredictable week in Canadian politics, and where do Trudeau and the Liberals go from here?There’s a lot to unpack, and this week I’m joined by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and The Globe and Mail’s Stephanie Levitz to try to make some sense of it.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:* Apple Podcasts* Spotify* Overcast* Pocket Casts* Podcast Addict* YouTube Music* RSS Feed This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
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37:48
The Numbers: Polls go from bad to sad for the Liberals
Four new polls put the Liberals and New Democrats within zero to two points of each other — and behind the Conservatives by margins of 19 to 23 points. We delve into the numbers and what they mean for each of the parties. Has Justin Trudeau’s promised GST holiday helped or hurt his chances?We also discuss provincial polls coming out of Ontario and Quebec, where two incumbent premiers (Doug Ford and François Legault) face two very different futures.Note to listeners: I suggest transitioning over to the dedicated podcast feed for The Numbers, as in the new year I intend to reserve this feed for episodes of The Writ Podcast. You can follow The Numbers on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, PodcastAddict or wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes will still be sent out via email to subscribers of The Writ, but it will be embedded in the email, rather than sent to the podcast feed.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
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37:45
The Numbers: A shock poll and a PC wave
A new poll, employing a new methodology, has the Conservatives at their highest and the Liberals at their lowest levels of support in years — maybe even a decade. What to make of it?On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we also break down Tim Houston’s PC landslide in the Nova Scotia election and take a look at some recent polls out of Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island.Note to listeners: I suggest transitioning over to the dedicated podcast feed for The Numbers, as in the new year I intend to reserve this feed for episodes of The Writ Podcast. You can follow The Numbers on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, PodcastAddict or wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes will still be sent out via email to subscribers of The Writ, but it will be embedded in the email, rather than sent to the podcast feed.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
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43:18
The Numbers: Liberals, NDP tied in new poll — again
A new poll by Abacus Data puts the Liberals and NDP neck-and-neck in national voting intentions, well behind the Conservatives. But this isn’t the first time it’s happened. Is it a blip or another worrying sign for Justin Trudeau?On this episode of The Numbers, we take a look at the federal polling landscape. We then discuss some new numbers out of Quebec before taking a deep-dive into the Nova Scotia provincial election. Could anything put a big win by Tim Houston’s PCs in doubt, and who has the inside track on forming the official opposition?Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
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