Tom Nelson

Paul Burgess presents his “Oceanic Index” model of climate change, arguing oceans regulate low cloud cover that acts as Earth’s thermostat, explaining satellite-era temperatures (1982–2025) with high accuracy and extending the approach back using proxies. He accepts anthropogenic CO2 and a direct ECS near 1–1.2°C per doubling, estimating about 0.6°C warming from CO2 since 1850, but rejects IPCC feedbacks and says a ~2.4% reduction in low clouds can account for additional warming, consistent with CERES radiation data where ocean changes lead cloud changes and then temperature. He discusses mechanisms from meteorology (marine inversion changes), historical periods (Little Ice Age, Roman/Medieval warmth) as largely natural, critiques temperature records and climate messaging, and briefly comments on Lindzen’s iris effect and energy policy debates.

00:00 Cloud Thermostat Intro
01:25 Oceanic Index Basics
03:16 What I Accept
04:45 Out of Sample Proof
06:00 ECS Debate Explained
07:32 Ocean Cloud Mechanism
09:16 CERES Sunshade Evidence
12:59 Small Cloud Drop Big Warming
14:26 Back to 1695
16:34 Holocene Lessons
17:40 Oceans Through Minima
20:57 Warm Periods Without CO2
22:03 Mediterranean Cloud Check
24:51 Extending Index to 1800s
28:02 Connolly Adjustment Fit
29:49 El Nino 1870s Peak
30:55 El Niño Context
31:22 ECS Assumptions
31:52 Clouds Fill The Gap
33:32 Feedback Claim Rebuttal
34:57 Frozen Formula Validation
36:02 CERES Versus IPCC
38:04 Scorecard Evidence
40:12 Cloud Mechanism Explained
41:07 Kid Friendly Ocean Cycle
44:21 Alarmism And Propaganda
50:49 Iris Effect Question
52:40 Net Zero Cost Reality
55:27 Closing Thoughts

Climate Realism by Paul Burgess: https://www.youtube.com/@ClimateRealism
Main paper: https://paulburgess3.substack.com/p/how-the-sun-via-the-oceans-controls
The paper on comparing the  Mediterranean study: https://paulburgess3.substack.com/p/a-mediterranean-study-of-the-effect
The Paper On The  Holocene as far as LIA: https://paulburgess3.substack.com/p/holocene-to-the-little-ice-age-a
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Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries
My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1

Ed Hoskins presents slides comparing renewables (onshore/offshore wind, solar PV, plus biomass and hydro) with gas, coal/lignite, and nuclear on productivity, EROEI, CO2 embedded in construction, land use, materials, build time, service life, and costs adjusted for capacity factors. He cites European capacity factors since 2010 (offshore ~32%, onshore ~20s, solar ~11%), a combined renewables average near 15% and declining since 2020, and a 2023 wind lull leaving large multi-day deficits. He argues storage to cover such gaps is infeasible, renewables require backup and expanded grids, wear out faster, and become far costlier once productivity is included; nuclear is most energy-productive. He criticizes Germany’s nuclear shutdown and questions CO2-driven policy.

00:00 Renewables Reality Check
02:17 Capacity Factors Since 2010
05:33 Dispatchability And Grid Backup
08:42 Wind Drought Case Study
11:43 Storage Costs And Scale
13:25 Energy Return On Investment
16:19 Germany Nuclear Shutdown
17:35 Embedded CO2 And Biomass
21:38 Land Use And Grid Sprawl
25:01 Build Times And Lifespans
29:16 Cost Comparisons With Productivity
41:00 2025 Installations And Conclusions
46:48 CO2 Warming Diminishing Returns
49:34 Q&A Grid Reliability And China
56:06 Wrap Up And Resources

About Ed: https://edmhdotme.wpcomstaging.com/
https://edhoskins.substack.com/
CO2 concentration Ed Hoskins 2014: https://edmhdotme.wpcomstaging.com/co2-concentration-ed-hoskins-2014/
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Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries
My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1

Dr. Randall Bock, a primary-care physician and author of Overturning Zika, argues that public-health research and media often fuel panic to secure funding, citing Peter Hotez’s warnings about dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and a “lights out” U.S. yellow fever scenario. Bock says U.S. sanitation and mosquito control limit these risks and that vaccines could be ramped up quickly. He contends the 2015–16 Brazil Zika–microcephaly crisis was driven by inconsistent microcephaly definitions, weak testing, and miscounting, noting Zika later persisted without microcephaly. He criticizes Zika human challenge trials and Fauci-era spending, discusses “science under siege” rhetoric, and briefly shares cautious views on childhood vaccination timing.

00:00 Why Non-Scary Viruses
01:29 Who Am I
03:09 Hotez Warning Yellow Fever
05:46 Climate Link Tomatoes Analogy
07:37 Yellow Fever Reality Check
08:35 COVID Vaccine Warp Speed
11:25 Zika Forecasts Fell Flat
16:11 Microcephaly Counting Mess
20:42 Vaccines and Zika Trials
26:37 Science Under Siege Critique
30:15 Dark Money and mRNA Push
32:56 Mann Lawsuit and Hygiene
35:14 Hygiene and Dengue
36:01 McNeil and Zika Panic
39:53 Microcephaly Metrics
42:08 Hotez and Fauci Reboots
44:37 Soviet Science Rhetoric
47:53 Yellow Fever Scares
50:12 Ghost Babies Fallout
59:22 Vaccines Parenting Choices

https://x.com/@DrRandallBock
https://dailysceptic.org/2026/09/28/the-experts-are-still-trying-to-scare-us-with-non-scary-viruses/
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Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries
My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1

John Costella, a former physicist turned data scientist and software engineer, recounts how watching climate-skeptic films, then reading leaked “Climategate” emails in 2009, changed his trust in climate science. He edited, annotated, and published selected emails, producing a 180-page color book printed by Australia’s Lavoisier Group, arguing the core group was small, politicized, PR-driven, and statistically sloppy, with bullying (including by Michael Mann). He says inquiries cleared wrongdoing but standards were low for policies with huge economic stakes. He then warns AI is already conscious and smarter than him, replacing white-collar jobs, inflating bubbles, and likely triggering a major economic crash soon, with unclear survival strategies.

00:00 Meet John Costella
00:23 Trusting Climate Consensus
01:10 Sally Challenges Belief
03:10 Skeptic Film Turning Point
04:34 Climategate Emails Leak
05:53 Publishing The Email Archive
07:54 Talks And Printed Book
09:57 Rethinking Scientific Standards
16:02 How Long The Book Took
17:48 Climate Science Complexity
22:45 PR Spin And Zealotry
31:04 Small Core Group Problem
32:40 Proxies Data And Peer Review
36:42 Gatekeeping Climate Journals
38:27 Data and Code Transparency
39:56 Sloppy Data Provenance
41:07 Statistics and Trust Collapse
43:19 Models and Feedback Loops
46:02 PR Versus Scientific Method
49:16 Skepticism and Pandemic Parallels
52:54 Bullying and Cult Dynamics
55:23 AI Consciousness and Job Loss
01:00:21 Skynet Risks and Data Centers
01:05:17 Simulation Theory and AI Rights
01:08:39 Economic Crash Survival Talk
01:13:39 Wrapping Up and Links

https://johncostella.com/
https://www.lavoisier.com.au/articles/greenhouse-science/climate-change/climategate-emails.pdf
ClimateGate repository: https://x.com/TomANelson/status/2078198047453143181
My ClimateGate blog posts: https://tomnelson.blogspot.com/p/climategate_05.html
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Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries
My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1

Steve Andrews presents an “extension to the cosmic ray hypothesis” for climate change, building on Svensmark and Shaviv’s idea that galactic cosmic rays influence low clouds and cooling, modulated by solar and Earth magnetic fields. Using UAH satellite temperature anomalies (1979–present), CERES, and Oulu neutron counts, he claims monthly warming-rate peaks occur near equinoxes, varies by region, and differs over land vs ocean. He links this to the Russell–McPherron effect: equinox magnetic alignment increases geomagnetic storms, solar-energy input heats and expands the thermosphere, shifting where cosmic-ray energy is dissipated, altering cloud height (higher clouds warming). He argues CO2-driven warming is unsupported, cites CERN CLOUD evidence for cloud nuclei, and suggests declining geomagnetic strength may matter.

00:00 Steve Returns and Topic
00:25 Feynman Quotes and Credentials
01:19 Cosmic Ray Climate Basics
04:13 Heliosphere and Magnetosphere
07:50 Evidence and Correlations
13:28 New Solar Oscillations
16:43 Why Satellite Data Matters
20:33 Monthly Warming Rate Method
22:26 Equinox Peaks in Warming
25:58 Exceptions Canada Australia
29:33 Land Minus Ocean Signal
32:05 Geomagnetic Storm Explanation
35:59 Auroras and Equinox Effect
36:20 Cloud Height Climate Lever
36:47 Thermosphere Heating Mechanism
39:20 Thermosphere Expansion Evidence
40:08 Tropics and Cosmic Ray Patterns
42:14 Climate Impact Summary
43:40 Cloud Data and Correlations
45:06 Challenges and Magnetic Field
49:48 Solar Flux and Altitude Signals
53:22 QBO Link to Solar Cycles
56:38 Satellite Cloud Height Trends
59:12 Long Records and Big Claims
01:03:43 Renewables Cost Anecdote
01:05:47 Q and A CERN and Aerosols
01:11:39 Closing Remarks

Stephen Andrews Substack: https://substack.com/@stephen938
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Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries
My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1