Tom Nelson

Paul Burgess presents updates to his Burgess Oceanic Solar CO2 index, claiming it precisely matches satellite temperatures from 1982–2025 without changing its fixed formula, including UAH v6.1 and final 2024–2025 data despite a record-low PDO. He says the index is not a forecasting model and implies ECS is 1°C, with ~25% warming from CO2 and ~22–23% from human CO2 after outgassing. A second paper argues oceans drive low-cloud changes (1–3 year lag), with ~2% cloud decline explaining warming, challenging IPCC positive feedbacks. He previews an extension back to 1900 with ~0.96 correlation using a UHI adjustment (Connolly 2021) and invites critique by email.

00:00 Paul Burgess Returns: Introducing the Oceanic Solar CO₂ Index Update
00:24 How the Index Matches Satellite Temps (and Why That’s Unusual)
01:02 No Curve-Fitting: Validation, Critiques, and Why It’s Public
02:19 Completing 2024–2025 + Switching UAH v6.0 to v6.1
03:42 Index vs Model: Fixed Formula, Inputs, and What It Can (and Can’t) Forecast
05:01 CO₂ Contribution & ECS = 1°C: What the Index Implies
07:01 Paper #1 Results: Record-Low PDO Stress Test and Fit Metrics
11:43 From Statistics to Physics: Paper #2 on Oceans, Clouds, and Sunlight
13:03 Clouds as Earth’s Thermostat: The ~2% Low-Cloud Change Claim
15:58 Cloud Layers & Evidence: Low Clouds Drive the Signal
17:58 IPCC Feedback Story Explained (and Critiqued)
21:31 Chicken-and-Egg Problem: Ocean–Cloud Coupling and the 1–3 Year Lag
22:00 Paper #3 Teaser: Testing Water Vapor, Albedo, and Cloud Feedbacks
27:21 Key Takeaways: Albedo/Ice Changes Follow Warming + Better Cloud Observations
28:19 Cloud Cover vs. Shortwave Radiation: What the Satellite Data Shows
28:59 Takeaway #3: Low Clouds as an Ocean-Driven “Sunshade” (Not a Warming Amplifier)
29:37 Four Key Lessons: Ocean Leads Clouds, and the Radiative Effect Matches
30:57 Implications for Climate Sensitivity: Why Models May Overstate CO₂ Feedbacks
32:07 How to Critique the Framework: Falsification Tests and Evidence Chain
34:57 Extending the BOI Back to 1900: Data Limits, UHI Adjustments, and Out-of-Sample Logic
36:12 Sneak Peek Results: BOI 1900–2025 and the 0.96 Correlation Claim
40:23 Q&A: How the BOI Coefficients Were Built (Covariance Fitting, Weights, Inputs)
43:51 Testing and Next Steps: Volcano Signals, Ocean Mechanisms, and Future Projections
47:02 Forecast vs. IPCC + Wrap-Up: Cooling Possibility, Politics, and Contact Info

Email: [email protected]
Explaining Every Temperature Change from 1983 to 2025 - My Most Important Work Ever: https://substack.com/home/post/p-182701114
Linking Ocean Heat, Low Clouds, and Sunlight In Burgess Oceanic index: https://paulburgess3.substack.com/p/linking-ocean-heat-low-clouds-and
Testing Water Vapour, Albedo and Cloud Feedback with the Burgess Oceanic Index: https://paulburgess3.substack.com/p/testing-water-vapour-albedo-and-cloud

Climate Realism by Paul Burgess: https://www.youtube.com/@ClimateRealism
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Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries
My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1

Joseph Fournier presents “part two” on how Pacific Walker circulation controls Earth’s largest greenhouse effect: cloud longwave radiative forcing. He explains cloud radiative forcing terminology, cites literature claiming cloud greenhouse warming dwarfs CO2 forcing, and shows satellite-era links between trade winds, cloud shifts during ENSO, outgoing longwave radiation, and global/tropical temperature anomalies. He contrasts absorbed solar radiation, OLR, and Earth energy imbalance, arguing global averages can be dominated by regional Pacific dynamics. He reviews multidecadal “dimming/brightening” sunshine trends in Europe, Japan and the U.S., discusses aerosols vs natural drivers, and briefly addresses future uncertainty, AMO/IPO impacts, and solar/cosmic-ray hypotheses. 

00:00 Welcome Back: Joseph Fournier & Why This Is “Part Two”
02:15 Cloud Basics 101: Shortwave vs Longwave, Net Cloud Radiative Forcing
05:51 Albedo Matters: How Small Cloud Changes Rival CO₂ Forcing
08:40 Evidence in the Literature: Trendberth and Early Satellite Cloud Forcing Maps
14:28 Clouds vs CO₂ Since 2000: Step-Change in Cloudiness and OLR
16:56 Geography Over Global Averages: The Western Pacific Warm Pool Hotspot
20:12 Warm Pool Size, SST, and Real-World Impacts (Winters, ENSO Timescales)
22:48 Walker Circulation Explained: Where Deep Convection Sits in La Niña vs El Niño
25:34 Warm Pool “Thermal Capacitor”: Thermocline Slosh, Water Volume, and Cloud Shift
30:32 Sea Level Pile-Up and the Gravity-Driven Discharge During El Niño
32:36 Radiation Signatures of ENSO: DLW/OLR Links to Niño Indices
36:13 Cloud Forcing Ratios & Decadal Patterns: What El Niño Does to Warm Pool Clouds
40:34 Global Signals: OLR vs Global Air Temperature and the ENSO Lead–Lag
45:14 Trade Winds as the Control Knob: Linking Pacific Easterlies to Global OLR
47:44 Tropical temps, OLR & trade winds: Walker circulation link
48:42 Clouds as the “other knob”: absorbed shortwave (ASR) vs temperature
50:29 2023 El Niño cloud changes: low-cloud cover & shifting albedo
53:49 ASR vs OLR since 2000: the hiatus ends and the energy budget shifts
55:44 Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) vs GAT: why the correlation breaks
57:58 Seasonal cycle first: EEI swings, hemispheres, clouds & land–ocean contrast
01:00:10 Wrap-up: two greenhouse effects & a call for academics to test it
01:02:54 Sunshine hours & AMO: UK/Europe brightening over the 20th century
01:07:26 Aerosols vs clouds: modern satellite trends and the “brightening” debate
01:11:53 Global dimming/brightening goes global: Japan/China records & Pacific teleconnections
01:12:56 Natural vs human drivers: when aerosols don’t explain surface radiation
01:18:13 Forecasting the next decade: sun, AMO/IPO, cooling claims & big uncertainties
01:26:17 Closing remarks: slides, Substack, and the climate–energy–geopolitics link

More information about Joseph Fournier: https://co2coalition.org/teammember/joseph-fournier/
His 2024 presentation: https://youtu.be/P2hVW0R67CY
Joseph’s Substack: https://josephfournier.substack.com/
X: https://x.com/JosephF55175005
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Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries
My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1

Jamie Andrews discusses his journey from geology to virology, questioning the mechanisms and validity of virus transmission and pathogenic theories, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on historical and contemporary controlled human infection studies, Andrews suggests that viruses do not spread as traditionally believed and criticizes the reliance on PCR tests for diagnosing viral infections. He also questions the role of global institutions in shaping scientific narratives, proposing that environmental factors and industrial toxins may play a more significant role in disease than viruses.

00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome
00:20 Journey into Virology and 2020 Events
01:21 Geology Background and Climate Data
04:48 Skepticism and Investigations
10:28 Controlled Human Infection Models
11:25 Spanish Flu and Historical Experiments
15:42 Modern Virology and Contagion Studies
31:36 Court Cases and Legal Battles
39:01 Realizing the Potential of Independent Research
40:21 Crowdsourcing and Engaging CROs
41:16 Following Standard Laboratory Protocols
41:56 Unexpected Findings in Cell Cultures
45:22 Microscopy and Viral Morphologies
49:36 Challenges with Mainstream Virology
54:58 Genetic Sequencing and Future Research
01:02:05 Debating Historical Disease Outbreaks
01:10:20 Concluding Thoughts and Future Directions

https://x.com/JamieAA_Again
https://substack.com/@controlstudies
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Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries
My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1

Joseph Hickey from CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest discusses findings on Canada’s temperature records, revealing a unique stepwise increase in 1998 that accounts for all the country’s warming since 1948. This anomaly challenges the prevailing CO2-driven warming paradigm, suggesting potential influences from natural climate variability, such as ocean oscillations. Hickey also highlights issues of data adjustments and inconsistencies in Environment Canada’s records.

00:00 Introduction and Guest Introduction
00:23 Overview of Correlation Research
02:13 Joseph Hickey's Background
03:53 Initial Observations on Temperature Data
08:18 Stepwise Increase in Temperature Data
11:12 Geographical Spread of Temperature Steps
18:31 Analysis of Temperature Trends Post-1998
27:24 Potential Causes of Temperature Steps
34:09 Conclusion and Future Research
35:19 Q&A Session

https://x.com/josephmhickey
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Joseph-Hickey-5
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Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries
My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1

Jonathan Cohler and Willie Soon present a rebuttal to assertions made by Ned Nikolov about the physical meaning of global mean surface temperature (GMST). They argue that GMST is a physically meaningless statistical construct that cannot represent the Earth's thermal state or energy content due to its basis in non-equilibrium thermodynamics. They emphasize that temperature is an intensive property and its aggregation across different systems is fundamentally flawed from both mathematical and thermodynamic perspectives.

00:00 Introduction and Guest Introduction
00:38 Global Temperature: Physically Meaningless
01:28 Thermodynamics and Its Importance
02:26 Disagreement in Science
02:58 Essex Etal 2007 Paper Discussion
04:25 Defining Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST)
08:04 Temperature and Energy Relationship
15:43 Critique of Nikolov's Claims
34:26 Averaging Methods and Their Flaws
49:28 Debunking Global Temperature Myths
49:48 The Flaws in Global Temperature Estimation
51:23 Classical Realism and Thermodynamics
53:06 Critique of GMST and Climate Models
54:23 The Paris Agreement and GMST
55:47 Misconceptions in Climate Science
01:14:21 The Role of AI in Climate Research
01:20:03 Concluding Thoughts and Future Work

https://jonathancohler.com/
https://x.com/cohler
DDP July 2025 presentation: “The Father of Lies: Hijacking Climate Science - Jonathan Cohler”: https://youtu.be/o_YJgD5cy1I
DDP July 2025 presentation: How well can we measure the Earth’s energy budget? Willie Soon, Ph.D.: https://youtu.be/tI0qmV2Bbc8
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Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries
My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1