Dynasty Nerds Podcast | Dynasty Fantasy Football

Rich, Matt, and Garret kick off their 2026 rookie prospect reviews with the position that breaks the most hearts every year: quarterbacks. The group emphasizes how much draft capital and landing spot shape outcomes, but also why weak classes can create value pockets in Superflex, especially if a QB can buy fantasy points with rushing.

They start at the top with Fernando Mendoza, presenting him as the cleanest profile in the class and the safest Superflex bet. The discussion centers on accuracy, ball placement, decision-making, and leadership, with a debate on ceiling. One view sees him living as a reliable QB1 or high-end QB2 type. The other argues he can climb higher if the team build around him hits and the offense keeps evolving.

Next up is Garrett Nussmeier, framed as a tricky evaluation because the 2025 tape looks heavily impacted by injury, while the 2024 tape shows a much more live arm and a more confident, pro-style passer. The group keeps coming back to one key point: draft capital will tell the story. If he lands in the right range, he becomes a real swing worth taking in Superflex rookie drafts.

They move into Drew Allar as the “looks the part” quarterback that coaches will want to develop. The upside is obvious in the frame and arm talent, but the concerns show up when the pocket collapses and the processing speeds up. The consensus is that he needs time, structure, and the right coaching situation to see if the tools translate.

They then cover Diego Pavia, giving credit for competitiveness and production, but making it clear the size limitation creates a massive barrier to draft capital and long-term opportunity. For fantasy purposes, they frame it as the kind of player where any real playing-time window would likely be the sell window.

They also hit Taylen Green as the ultimate “tools vs quarterbacking” prospect. The athletic profile is wild and the rushing upside creates fantasy intrigue, but the concerns are about processing, mechanics, and whether he can consistently function as an NFL passer. The takeaway is that he is a pure swing pick, not a stable bet.

They close with Luke Altmyer, who gets credit for playing on time, protecting the ball, and being coach-friendly, but is framed as a capped-ceiling profile for fantasy. Even if he sticks in the NFL as a backup type, the upside is limited compared to the quarterbacks who can generate fantasy points with rushing.

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00:00:00 Start

00:06:51 Fernando Mendoza

00:26:00 Garrett Nussmeier

00:39:26 Drew Allar

00:49:27 FFPC

00:51:16 Roster Rescue is BACK!

00:52:19 Diego Pavia

01:02:07 Taylen Green

01:14:27 Luke Altmyer
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Garret Price and Andrew Mott shift from Combine takeaways into the real domino period: NFL free agency. The focus is how quickly dynasty value can swing based on tags, cap space, and surprise landing spots.

The quarterback section starts with Daniel Jones as the cleanest call to return. From there, they frame Kirk Cousins as more of a bridge or depth option than a true long-term starter, with potential fits depending on how a team wants to handle the next rookie class.

The most discussed “swing” outcome is Malik Willis. They see logical scenarios where he lands in a spot that gives him a chance to start sooner rather than later, but they also push back on the idea that he becomes a franchise saver. The upside is real for fantasy. The long-term NFL outlook is still more uncertain.

At running back, they spend time on the tension around Breece Hall, with the tag scenario creating downside risk for both fantasy managers and the player’s perceived freedom. Kenneth Walker is treated as more likely to stay put, but with enough uncertainty that it is worth tracking closely through the deadline.

From there, the conversation turns to possible landing spots and role fits. Travis Etienne is one of the biggest pieces on the board if he changes teams. Rachaad White gets framed as a committee and depth type of option rather than a clear starter. Rico Dowdle, Tyler Allgeier, and JK Dobbins round out the “next tier” of backs who could become important depending on how a backfield is built and how much money a team is willing to spend.

On the wide receiver side, they start with Alec Pierce as a clean field-stretcher fit for multiple teams. Mike Evans is the headliner name if the longtime situation finally changes, with a clear expectation that any move would be tied to chasing a title.

They also run through veteran and role-based fits, including Wan’Dale Robinson, Romeo Doubs, Jauan Jennings, and Christian Kirk, with the key point being that teams with cap space and obvious needs can reshape the entire room quickly.

They close the receiver discussion with Deebo Samuel and Rashid Shaheed, focusing on how either player could change an offense’s geometry depending on usage and price.

At tight end, they highlight David Njoku as the kind of addition that can immediately upgrade an offense that needs a true middle-of-the-field presence. Isaiah Likely is treated as a talented option whose market may not be as hot as fantasy managers expect. Cade Otton is discussed as a solid, reliable tight end piece who can fit multiple teams without needing to be the entire passing game.

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00:00 Start

01:23 Daniel Jones

02:10 Kirk Cousins

05:56 Malik Willis

10:14 Breece Hall

12:50 Kenneth Walker

17:34 Travis Etienne

19:09 Rachaad White

20:25 Rico Dowdle

24:35 Tyler Allgeier

28:06 JK Dobbins

29:22 Alec Pierce

32:59 Mike Evans

35:55 Wan'Dale Robinson

38:04 Romeo Doubs

39:12 Jauan Jennings

41:32 Christian Kirk

43:26 Deebo Samuel & Rashid Shaheed

47:26 David Njoku

48:40 Isaiah Likely

50:08 Cade Otton
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Jagger May and Andrew Mott are back with a post-Combine check-in on who helped themselves and who created new concerns. Their main point is consistent throughout the episode: testing is not the whole evaluation, but bad numbers and bad interview moments can matter a lot more than a great 40.

At running back, the conversation keeps coming back to how thin the class feels behind Jeremiyah Love. Mike Washington Jr. is the testing standout they spend the most time on, while Emmett Johnson is the most disappointing result, turning “interesting traits” into a much tougher projection based on how the numbers landed.

At quarterback, they treat Ty Simpson and Garrett Nussmeier as winners mostly because they did what they needed to do on the field and in interviews. On the other side, Diego Pavia is the clear cautionary tale of how quickly interviews can tank confidence.

At wide receiver, the biggest storyline is Makai Lemon, where the discussion is less about tape and more about the Combine week optics. They also note that some players did not test, which naturally creates skepticism until pro days.

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00:00:00 Start

00:07:19 WR Winners and Losers

00:18:04 QB Winners and Losers

00:28:16 RB Winners and Losers

00:34:35 EDGE Winners and Losers

00:41:06 Offensive Linemen Winners and Losers

00:45:47 TE Winners and Losers

00:51:37 Conspiracy Theory Time

00:53:48 IDL Winners and Losers

00:55:05 LB Winners and Losers

00:56:51 DB Winners and Losers
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Garret Price and Andrew Mott go full “Frankenstein mode” for Combine week, building the ultimate 2026 wide receiver by assigning one prospect to each key trait. The only rule is you can only use each player once, which forces some gamesmanship as they decide where each name has the most value.

They start with Malachi Fields as the easy winner for size, the receiver who “looks like WR1 getting off the bus.” For pure long speed, both land on Brenen Thompson, the track-speed bet who could be among the fastest in the class.

For yards after catch, they give the nod to Omar Cooper, emphasizing open-field playmaking and how that trait translates across offensive systems. When it comes to hands, they agree Makai Lemon brings the best mix of reliability and highlight-level catches. Route running is the one category they treat as a clear lock, selecting Jordan Tyson as the best separator and tempo-based technician in the class.

Contested catch goes to Denzel Boston, largely because of strength through contact and the ability to win at the catch point with “vice grip” hands. For the tougher “vibes” category, IQ, they settle on Skyler Bell, a player they credit for constantly being in the right place, understanding scramble drill rules, and winning with savvy rather than pure athletic dominance.

Pedigree goes to Carnell Tate, based on recruiting profile and the full “pipeline” context. For burst and early acceleration, they choose KC Concepcion, with a quick note that measurements and speed will be huge for how the NFL views the role.

They close physicality with Chris Bell, describing a tank-built receiver who plays with real edge and contact tolerance.

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00:00 Start

01:40 WR Size

03:48 Speed

05:41 YAC

07:48 Hands

10:33 Route Running

12:21 Contested Catch

14:18 Football IQ

19:27 Pedigree

21:41 Burst

23:29 Physicality
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Rich Dotson and Garret Price are back for one of their most popular yearly shows: the real value of rookie draft picks. With the Combine running and rookie drafts right around the corner, they break down where picks actually hit, where they turn into roster cloggers, and why “not worth a first” is meaningless unless you say which first.

Garret lays out the scoring tiers they track to define outcomes. A “hit” requires at least one Tier 1 season, or multiple Tier 2 seasons, with thresholds adjusted by position. Quarterbacks need top six seasons to count as Tier 1, running backs and wide receivers need top 12, and tight ends need top three. The point is simple: if a player never reaches at least Tier 2, that pick never truly helped your starting lineup.

After adding the 2024 class to the spreadsheet, they call out early hits already logged, including Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Drake Maye, Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., and Bo Nix, while noting plenty of names still need time to prove it.

The biggest takeaway is the stability at the very top. Since 2018, the 1.01 has a 100% hit rate in their sample, and top four picks hit about three quarters of the time, with even more value when you include “mid” outcomes. After that, the first round becomes far less differentiated, and they point out an odd recent trend where 1.09 to 1.12 has slightly better results than 1.05 to 1.08.

They dig into a possible reason: quarterbacks often get pushed into that 1.05 to 1.08 range in Superflex, and non-elite rookie quarterbacks are harder to “hit” by their definition. The broader lesson stays the same. Outside the top tier, it often makes sense to trade down, tier up into a proven veteran, or move picks into stronger future classes.

They hammer the second round value drop. Once you get into the 2.01 to 2.12 range, the hit rate collapses, and third round picks become true dart throws. Their advice for contenders is aggressive: if you can turn a first into multiple years of a proven producer, that is usually the winning bet because many late firsts never become lineup players.

Garret also tests a theory about late rookie drafts. If you trade late seconds and thirds for multiple fourths and fifths, the position most likely to return value is running back. Late-round running backs can become “ships to shore” quickly when injuries hit, and that short window can still flip into future seconds. They add that tight ends are often pushed down by the community chasing wide receivers, which can create value pockets in the late second and early third.

The data behind “hits” and why the top mattersWhat the hit rates say about trading picksWhy second round picks are the “Ponzi scheme”Late draft strategy: load up on running backs and tight ends.

00:00 Start

00:30 Why Rookie Picks Are Often Overvalued

03:23 Hit/Mid/Miss Definitions

10:42 Top Picks Hit Rates

16:21 Mid/Late Firsts & Second/Third Round Drop-Off

27:43 Trade Firsts for Proven Assets & Late-Round Targets

37:27 FFPC

38:46 2026 Rookie Class Outlook

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