Three Buddy Problem

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Three Buddy Problem - Episode 103: We dive into the U.S. government's takeover of frontier-model rollouts (Mythos, Fable, and OpenAI's Sol/Terra/Luna) and what it means when intelligence gets commoditized but access gets rationed.

Plus, Costin's all-Chinese open-weight stack, the economics of burning tokens, a fresh Salesforce OAuth breach, and jellyfish UFOs over Iran.

Cast: Juan Andres Guerrero-Saade, Ryan Naraine and Costin Raiu.

Timestamps:

0:00 — Introductory banter, Thinkst Canary sponsorship

2:55 — Why threat intel analysts are built for the AI moment

11:09 — Government takes the wheel: Mythos, Fable & the frontier labs

16:15 — Did the government go too far/not far enough?

25:42 — Anthropic's "best PR campaign in history"

31:52 — Alibaba, distillation & the model-router cartel

40:58 — Costin's stack: Chinese open-weight models & token economics

46:12 — Dumping, evals & the real work of AI engineering

1:04:32 — Soft power: how the world gets pushed toward China

1:14:43 — "The bullshit": over-refusal & the Opus 4.8 regression

1:32:03 — The trillion-dollar IPO endgame

1:35:49 — The Klue OAuth breach and secure-by-default

1:45:32 — Shout-outs: UAP jellyfish, LABScon 2026

(Presented by TLPBLACK: A cybersecurity intelligence platform focused on sharing curated, high-sensitivity threat insights and research with trusted security professionals.)

Three Buddy Problem - Episode 102: Software export controls expert Katie Moussouris joins the show to unpack the US government's abrupt move to suspend access to Anthropic's most powerful models over a so-called "jailbreak" that, on reading the paper, turned out to be a model doing exactly what defenders are supposed to do.

We dig into the export-control chaos, the chemical-weapons framing of cybersecurity, the China question, and why Microsoft just resurrected a disclosure term the industry buried fifteen years ago.

Cast: Katie Moussouris, Juan Andres Guerrero-Saade and Ryan Naraine. Costin is traveling.

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introductory banter

1:00 - Export Controls: Fable 5 and Mythos 5 suspended

3:40 - The Anthropic–USG relationship and USG’s surveillance claim

9:40 - Self-owns, doomsday cults, and why the guardrails are "so broad"

12:42 - What the Amazon paper actually says ("fix this code")

20:33 - The chemical-weapons framing problem

23:39 - The China question and the SK Telecom angle

41:17 - Why hasn't the paper been published?

57:01 - "Free Fable": are Chinese models only months behind?

1:00:13 - The unforgiving internet and the security poverty line

1:11:18 - Microsoft brings back "responsible disclosure" (and threatens researchers)

1:29:04 - Luta Security, the AI bug flood, and shout-outs

(Presented by TLPBLACK: A cybersecurity intelligence platform focused on sharing curated, high-sensitivity threat insights and research with trusted security professionals.)

Three Buddy Problem - Episode 101: We discuss Anthropic's Mythos 5 and Claude Fable 5 release and the bombshell that the company was silently downgrading paid users' results, sparking a heated debate over guardrails, gatekeeping, and whether elite AI reasoning is becoming a privilege for the few.

Plus, AI-generated N-day exploits killing the patch window, a record-shattering Patch Tuesday, Meta's latest court filing against spyware maker NSO Group, the return of cyber paleontology, and a detour into the new government UFO drops.

Cast: Juan Andres Guerrero-Saade, Ryan Naraine and Costin Raiu.

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introductory banter

3:22 - The Mythos 5 / Claude Fable 5 release

14:42 - Anthropic’s silent downgrade trust problem

26:18 - Anti-competitive behavior & the AV "stealing detection" parallel

32:29 - Distillation, China & the real motive

38:04 - "Too dangerous to release" & gatekeeping vs. guardrailing

45:53 - Is Mythos a threat to malware-analysis startups?

48:20 - Dario's AI regulation essay

56:48 - N-day exploits and death of the patch window

1:07:18 - Patch Tuesday and 10x vulnerability surge

1:10:34 - Meta catches NSO Group

1:14:45 - Cyber paleontology, Shadow Brokers leaks

1:28:29 - Moonlight Maze and learning from history

1:34:22 - UFOs, UAPs and Disclosure Day

(Presented by TLPBLACK: A cybersecurity intelligence platform focused on sharing curated, high-sensitivity threat insights and research with trusted security professionals.)

Three Buddy Problem - Episode 100: We cover AI eating reverse engineering, the death of the malware report, running local models on the DGX Spark, where Google DeepMind stands, and whether the frontier labs will stay in cybersecurity.

Plus, more on Anthropic's Mythos rollout and the thinly sourced Anthropic-NSA reports, the Fast16 sabotage of physics calculations, what researchers choose not to publish, Microsoft's bad Black Hat email, and Costin's Friday UFO files.

Cast: Juan Andres Guerrero-Saade, Ryan Naraine and Costin Raiu.

Timestamps:

0:00 - JAGS at InfoSecurity Europe

3:40 - Sponsor: TLPBLACK

5:54 - A roadmap for security after the AI revolution

11:01 - Stripe Atlas and how easy it is to start a company

15:00 - If anyone could reverse engineer anything for $5

19:49 - Layoffs at Google's Threat Intelligence Group

21:06 - The death of reading the report

27:53 - Pitting the AI models against each other

32:07 - Grok, local models, and the DGX Spark

39:27 - Where is Google DeepMind?

45:29 - Will the frontier labs stay in cybersecurity?

52:41 - Mythos, Project Glasswing, and the NSA deal

1:16:33 - FAST16, Stuxnet, and sabotaging Iran's bomb

1:57:52 - Microsoft, Black Hat, and the chilling effect

2:14:14 - Shout-outs, UFO files, and 100 episodes

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Three Buddy Problem - Episode 99: Microsoft is now threatening legal action against researchers who drop zero-days. We debate whether it's a fair line against extortion, or amateur-hour PR from a company that already torched its own research community? Costin plays reluctant defender, JAGS says the damage was done years ago, and Ryan reopens the long history of silent fixes and stolen bounties.

Plus, on the 10th anniversary of the Shadow Brokers leak, we discuss some enduring mysteries, theories on attribution and an interesting trail that leads to Edward Snowden.

We also unpack Rob Joyce's warning that China's cyber explosives are already planted in US infrastructure, and the Pope's warnings about around artificial intelligence.

Cast: Juan Andres Guerrero-Saade, Ryan Naraine and Costin Raiu.

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introductory banter

2:03 - The Pope's AI paper

3:35 - New sponsor: Brandon Dixon's Ent Security

9:34 - Costin's Chinese-model OSINT rabbit hole

13:34 - Codex, GPT-5.5, and the "American AI welfare state"

23:20 - Microsoft threatens vulnerability researchers

27:06 - Is it extortion or retribution? The disclosure fight

40:48 - How Microsoft's consultant class broke MSRC and MSTIC

48:42 - Silent fixes, stolen bounties, and the marketing machine

1:02:29 - Ten years of the Shadow Brokers

1:14:20 - The Snowden theory

1:32:34 - Rob Joyce: China's cyber explosives are in place

1:53:26 - Shout-outs