The Missing Middle Podcast

For years, the Missing Middle team has advocated for reducing the tax burden on new construction. With pre-construction sales down 95% in some GTA markets, the industry has hit a wall where it simply makes no financial sense to build.

In this week’s episode, we answer some of the questions and misconceptions we’ve read online about the new HST rebate on new homes. 

Beyond the rebate, they explore bigger structural challenges like land costs, zoning, and competition in development. The key question remains whether this policy can meaningfully increase supply in a market that is still not functioning normally.

If the goal is to improve affordability, the HST rebate may help, but it is only one part of a much larger housing problem.
Chapters:

00:00 - Gov Announces HST Rebate and Reduced Development Charges
01:22 - Overview of HST Changes
01:52 -  History of Previous Rental and Ownership Rebates
02:58 - Expanding Eligibility Beyond First-Time Buyers
05:32 - Addressing the "Demand Subsidy" Misconception
07:25 - Will Developers Pass Savings to the Buyer?
09:04 - The Impact on Land Values and the Need for Reform
10:05 - Historical Comparison of Government Taxes and Fees
11:26 - How Accurate are the Government Numbers?
12:42 - Projected Impact and the One-Year Program Limit
14:09 - Retroactive Eligibility and Final Thoughts

Research/links:
Doug Ford and Mark Carney to expand HST rebate to all new home buyers
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/exclusive-ford-and-carney-to-expand-hst-rebate-to-all-new-home-buyers/article_55543d47-86b9-466d-bd17-6155c4d62097.html

Doug Ford and Mark Carney to expand HST rebate to all new home buyers : r/canadahousing
https://www.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/comments/1s3a8cs/doug_ford_and_mark_carney_to_expand_hst_rebate_to/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

If inflation is only around 2–3%, why does everything feel so much more expensive?

In this episode, we break down how inflation is actually measured, and why your personal experience can feel completely disconnected from the official numbers. From grocery bills and gas prices to rent and mortgages, not all price increases hit the same way—and some matter a lot more than others.

We also dig into the hidden forces shaping your cost of living: shrinkflation, quality drops (“chocolatey” vs. chocolate), and the limits of how agencies like Statistics Canada track price changes. The result? A single inflation number that masks wildly different realities depending on how you live, spend, and earn.

In other words: there isn’t one inflation rate. There are millions.

Chapters 
00:00 Intro: Why We Underestimate Inflation
00:28 Official Stats vs. Public Perception
01:20 Breaking Down the "Spending Basket"
02:07 Why Every Family Experiences Inflation Differently
03:33 Why Reading & Media Prices are Dropping
04:04 Biggest Price Jumps & Surprises
05:56 The Reality of Shrinkflation at the Grocery Store
06:46 The Kraft Dinner Test: Smaller Sizes, Same Price
07:43 Cutting Ingredients: Chocolate vs. "Chocolaty"
09:03 Housing & Shelter Inflation
11:46 Boomers vs. Gen Z: Who Wins in High Interest Rates?
12:55 Final Thoughts: One Economy, Multiple Realities
Research Links:
Consumer Price Index and Inflation Perceptions in Canada: Can measurement approaches or behavioural factors explain the gap?
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/62f0014m/62f0014m2021017-eng.htm

Shrinking products, rising prices: Food-specific quantity adjustments in the Consumer Price Index
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-627-m/11-627-m2025016-eng.htm 

Greedy bastards. This just happened in the past few weeks.
https://www.reddit.com/r/loblawsisoutofcontrol/comments/1s116uj/greedy_bastards_this_just_happened_in_the_past/ 

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this episode of The Missing Middle, Cara Stern sits down with YouTuber Paige Saunders to discuss the one structural glitch that is sabotaging Canada’s economy, healthcare, and housing market: our electoral system.
While most democracies have moved on to Proportional Representation, Canada remains stuck with a model that empowers swing ridings and ignores millions of voters. Paige explains why this monopoly on power prevents real innovation and how a simple change in how we vote could lead to a 20% performance increase across the board.
In this video:
How our voting system benefits wealthy people
Which voting system would a villain choose?
Why Ranked Choice is a trap for multi-party democracies.
The path forward: Why we need a binding Citizens' Assembly.
Check out Paige Saunders' channel: https://www.youtube.com/@PaigeMTL
Chapters:
00:37 Intro: The hidden force behind Canada’s biggest problems
01:12 What’s broken about Canada’s voting system
01:48 How swing ridings control the country
04:03 Why politicians ignore entire groups of voters
05:26 Does proportional representation hurt suburbs?
06:59 Populism, power, and lack of accountability
08:59 Why this won’t magically fix housing
10:17 Why politicians refuse to change the system
11:11 Why most Canadians don’t even notice the problem
12:58 Is Canada heading down the US/UK path?
15:13 Why electoral reform keeps failing
19:40 The real barrier to change
24:24 The AI test: which system is worst?
29:12 “I was shocked Canada still uses this”
32:28 Is Canada falling behind on democracy?
36:03 Can anything actually force reform?
40:00 What a better system could look like
42:45 Final thoughts: a more Canadian democracy

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

You built equity, planned ahead, and did everything right, so why is the next step on the housing ladder completely out of reach?

Canada’s housing crisis is usually framed around first-time buyers struggling to get into the market. But a growing number of Canadians already made that leap and are now stuck. Couples who bought small condos with the expectation of eventually upgrading are discovering that the path forward has quietly disappeared.

In this episode, Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux unpack the rise of the “trapped” second-time homebuyer; households in their late 20s to early 40s who did everything right, built equity, and planned ahead, only to find that larger, family-sized homes are further out of reach than ever. With prices outpacing incomes, policy focused on first-time buyers, and a shortage of suitable homes, the traditional housing ladder no longer works.

What happens when an entire generation can’t move up, even after getting in? And what does it mean for family formation, economic mobility, and the future of Canada’s housing system?

Chapters:
00:00 The "Broken Ladder": Canada’s Second-Time Homebuyer Crisis
00:58 Trapped in the Starter Home:The Condo Squeeze
03:01 The Over-Focus on Shoebox Condos vs. Family Homes
04:13 How the Housing Dream Changed
05:44 Is the “Condo-to-Detached” Model a Ponzi Scheme?
06:39 The “Goldilocks” Scenario for Sustainable Housing Gains
08:16 Polling Data: What Ontarians Actually Care About
10:17 The Case for Extending HST Rebates Beyond First-Time Buyers
11:11 Policy Dorks vs. The Public: Finding Common Ground
14:00 Property Taxes: The "Political Third Rail"
15:45 Should Housing Rules Be Handled by the Province?
16:35 Why Down Payment Support Might Be Hurting More Than Helping
18:43 Renters’ Rights & The Future of Canadian Housing
Research Links:
New OREA survey finds Ontarians support change and transparency in housing costs and policies
Housing in Ontario: Perceptions, Impacts, And Solutions
Unlocking Homeownership: What Canadians Want from Housing Policy
A Blueprint to Restore Homeownership for Young Canadians
Is Ontario Ready to Spend $895M to Jumpstart Homebuilding?

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

Is Canada still a “land of opportunity,” or has your success become a function of who your parents are?
In this segment, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt dive into the uncomfortable reality of meritocracy in Canada. While Boomers largely believe hard work still pays off, Millennials and Gen Z are seeing a different story. We break down the latest Ipsos polling data and Statistics Canada research that shows social mobility is eroding.
From the "Housing Theory of Everything" to the widening gap between equal opportunity and equal outcomes, we explore why the rules of the game have changed, and what we need to fix to make Canada fair again.

Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
00:46 Defining Meritocracy
1:12 Is Canada a Meritocracy? 
02:41 Measuring Meritocracy Income and Polls
04:23 Generational Divide in Ipsos Poll
05:54 Fairness Equal Opportunity vs Outcomes
07:15 Economists on Eroding Social Mobility
09:07 Increasing Distrust in Institutions & Distrust of Politicians
09:47 Changing Minds Understanding New Realities
11:13 Housing Crisis and Social Mobility
12:45 The Role of Effort combined with Environment

Research/links:

Generational Disconnect In Canada Ipsos Equalities Index 2025 - A 31-country Global Advisor Study
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/publication/documents/2025-08/generational-disconnect-in-Canada.pdf

Trends in Intergenerational Income Mobility and Income Inequality in Canada
Trends in Intergenerational Income Mobility and Income Inequality in Canada

International Fairness Day 2024: Canada’s commitment to fairness for every generation is more than an empty slogan – but it’s not yet a reality
https://www.if.org.uk/2024/11/18/international-fairness-day-2024-canadas-commitment-to-fairness-for-every-generation-is-more-than-an-empty-slogan-but-its-not-yet-a-reality/

A retreat from opportunity: Is the Canadian dream still alive?
https://thehub.ca/2025/11/10/deepdive-a-retreat-from-opportunity-is-the-canadian-dream-still-alive/

Intergenerational income mobility in Canada: Research highlights from two recent studies
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2023012/article/00001-eng.htm

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.