The Missing Middle Podcast

Canada’s fertility rate has fallen to just 1.25 children per woman, one of the lowest in the developed world. But what’s actually driving the decline? Are fewer Canadians having children, or are the ones having kids simply choosing to have fewer of them?
In this episode of DemograFix, ⁠Mike Moffatt and ⁠Cara Stern break down the data behind Canada’s collapsing birth rate. They explore why more women are remaining childless, why one-child families have become the norm, and how housing costs, delayed parenthood, childcare, culture, and changing lifestyles are reshaping family formation across the country.
Topics discussed:
Why Vancouver and Victoria have some of the world’s lowest fertility rates
The surprising link between housing affordability and birth rates
Why millennials and Gen Z still say they want kids
How family sizes changed from the 1980s to today
Whether education actually reduces fertility
Why cities are losing young families
The growing gap between the number of children Canadians want and the number they actually have
If Canada wants higher birth rates, what would it actually take to make raising children affordable again?
#Canada #HousingCrisis #FertilityRate #BirthRate #Millennials #GenZ #Economy #Housing #Population #Parenting #Childcare #CanadianPolitics #Demographics #TheMissingMiddle
Chapters:
00:00 Introduction: Canada’s Ultra-Low Fertility Rate
01:08 What Fertility Rates Measure — And Why Canada Is Different
01:59 Housing Costs, Cities, and Why Young Families Are Leaving
03:49 Are Fewer Women Having Children?
04:32 Delayed Parenthood and The Rise In Childlessness
06:01 Marriage, Religion, Immigration, and Fertility Trends
08:03 Does Higher Education Actually Reduce Birth Rates?
10:24 From Three-Child Families To One-Child Households
12:26 Housing Costs, Bedrooms, and Raising Kids In Canada
14:22 Canadians Still Want More Children
17:28 From Overpopulation Fears To Population Collapse
19:44 The Growing Gap Between Family Goals and Reality
20:05 What Governments Could Do To Make Raising Kids Easier

Research/links:
Proportion of women aged 20 to 49 without children, by age group and selected sociodemographic characteristics, 2024
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260126/t001a-eng.htm

‘One and Done’ is the new norm: inside Canada’s growing one-child family trend
https://www.babycenter.ca/a25053886/one-and-done-is-the-new-norm-inside-Canadas-growing-one-child-family-trend 

Living arrangements of children in Canada: A century of change
https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2014/statcan/75-006-x/75-006-2014001-4-eng.pdf

Fertility in Canada, 1921 to 2022
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91f0015m/91f0015m2024001-eng.htm 

Credits:
Mike Moffatt https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt
https://bsky.app/profile/mikepmoffatt.bsky.social

Cara Stern https://x.com/carastern
https://bsky.app/profile/carastern.bsky.social

Meredith Martin  https://twitter.com/meredithmartin
https://bsky.app/profile/meredithmartin.bsky.social

Sean Foreman @seanegertonforeman
https://bsky.app/profile/seanforeman.bsky.social

University of Ottawa Co-op Student,  Kelly Hoban

Brought to you by the Missing Middle Initiative https://www.missingmiddleinitiative.ca/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/

Why are Canadians allowed to sell their homes tax-free while profits from stocks and investments get taxed? And is that policy making Canada’s housing crisis even worse?
In this episode of Classonomics Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt break down Canada’s capital gains exemption on primary residences, why it exists, why politicians are terrified to touch it, and whether it’s contributing to skyrocketing home prices and inequality between homeowners and renters.
They explore the history of the tax exemption, why attempts to change it spark political outrage, how other countries handle housing taxes, and whether taxing home profits would actually make housing more affordable. Plus, they discuss property taxes, downsizing, investor advantages, generational inequality, and why even “common sense” housing reforms have become politically impossible in Canada.
Topics covered:
Canada’s capital gains exemption on homes
Housing affordability and inequality
Why homeowners are politically powerful
How other countries tax housing wealth
Property taxes and downsizing
Investors vs families in the housing market
The politics of housing reform in Canada
Why fixing housing has become so difficult
#Canada #HousingCrisis #RealEstate #Taxes #HousingMarket #CanadianPolitics #Economics #TheMissingMiddle

Chapters:
00:00 Why Canada Doesn’t Tax Gains on Your Primary Home
01:17 Why Politicians Won’t Touch the Primary Residence Exemption
04:06 The History of Canada’s Capital Gains Exemption
05:28 How Other Countries Handle Housing Capital Gains
07:25 Does the Exemption Actually Worsen the Housing Crisis?
10:39 The Case Against Taxing Primary Residences
13:26 Better Alternatives: Tax Fairness Without Capital Gains Reform
16:06 Why Even Good Housing Policy Can Be Politically Impossible

Research:
Canada should look to Australia on eliminating barriers to downsizing for seniors
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/article-housing-baby-boomers-suburban-homes-young-families/

CBC article from a few years ago: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/the-conservatives-misleading-claims-about-a-secret-liberal-housing-tax-1.5312873 

26 of 40:
https://view.asiae.co.kr/en/article/2022032109551988175 

History of cap gains taxes:
https://www.ctf.ca/EN/EN/Newsletters/Perspectives/2021/3/210304.aspx

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/

What if companies could figure out the exact maximum you’re willing to pay, and charge you exactly that?

That’s the promise of surveillance pricing: using your personal data, purchase history, location, online behavior, and even financial information to tailor prices specifically to you.

In this episode, Cara Stern talks with Vass Bednar, managing director of the Canadian Shield Institute and author of The Big Fix, about why this issue is suddenly on the political agenda in Canada, and what it means for consumers.

They discuss:
What surveillance pricing is, and how it differs from ordinary dynamic pricing
How companies use your data to predict your “willingness to pay”
Why two people could see different prices for the exact same product
The real-world examples already happening with apps, airlines, and delivery platforms

Why 83% of Canadians say this practice should be banned or regulated
What governments can actually do to stop it

Chapters:

Research/links:

Everything Costs More Because the Algorithm Says So | The Walrus
https://thewalrus.ca/everything-costs-more-because-the-algorithm-says-so/
How Corporate Consolidation is Ruining Everything: Discussion with Denise Hearn and Vass Bednar
https://youtu.be/Uz5DkpZPH2k?si=M_c-2GX4dS7wKF9l

Canadians Are Skeptical of Algorithmic Pricing - Abacus Data
https://abacusdata.ca/canadians-are-deeply-skeptical-of-algorithmic-pricing-and-want-governments-to-intervene/

AI-Driven Pricing May Be the Next Shock to Canadian Grocery Shoppers
https://retail-insider.com/retail-insider/2025/12/ai-driven-pricing-may-be-the-next-shock-to-canadian-grocery-shoppers/

Algorithms are raising prices for everything. This must stop - The Globe and Mail
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-algorithms-are-raising-prices-for-everything-this-must-stop/

Avi Lewis is smart to shed light on surveillance pricing | Canada's National Observer: Climate News
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2026/04/24/news/avi-lewis-ndp-surveillance-pricing

Algorithmic pricing: Poll finds half of Canadians against
https://www.cp24.com/news/canada/2026/03/18/most-canadians-want-to-ban-or-regulate-algorithmic-pricing-poll-shows/?lid=8z3lanxo654a
Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/

Canada is launching a new sovereign wealth fund, but what exactly is it, and why is Prime Minister Mark Carney betting big on it?
In this episode of Classonomics, Mike Moffatt and Meredith Martin break down the proposed Canada Strong Fund, how sovereign wealth funds work, and why comparisons to Norway’s famous $2 trillion oil fund may not tell the full story. They explore whether debt-financed infrastructure investing can actually grow the economy, why critics are calling it a “sovereign debt fund,” and what this could mean for housing, ports, transit, energy infrastructure, and future generations of Canadians.
Topics covered:
• What sovereign wealth funds actually are
• How Norway built its trillion-dollar oil fund
• Why Canada is creating the Canada Strong Fund
• The debate over debt-financed infrastructure
• How infrastructure investment affects housing and economic growth
• The risks, criticisms, and unanswered questions surrounding the fund
Chapters: 
00:00 Introduction to Sovereign Wealth Funds
00:41 What is a Sovereign Wealth Fund?
01:29 Norway’s Two Sovereign Wealth Funds Explained
03:19 Why Norway Created a Second Fund
05:13 How Canada’s Fund Differs From Norway’s
06:28 Criticism Over Debt Financing
08:22 Will the Fund Benefit Future Generations?
09:58 Why the Announcement Confused Canadians
12:03 Final Thoughts And Outro

Research/links:

The Canada Strong Fund: Nation-Building or State Venture Capitalism?
https://www.asiapacific.ca/publication/canada-strong-fund-nation-building-or-state-venture-capitalism

What Canada can learn from Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund
https://www.mjemcgill.com/articles/what-canada-can-learn-from-norways-sovereign-wealth-fund

Our pension funds must be sovereign wealth funds, too – even if pensioners take a hit
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-our-pension-funds-must-be-sovereign-wealth-funds-too-even-if/

Canada's spring budget projects economy to grow and deficit to fall
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz0278zyznjo

Neither Norway nor Singapore: Decoding Canada’s new sovereign wealth fund
https://globalnews.ca/news/11825911/norway-singapore-canada-sovereign-wealth-fund/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/

Ontario has started cutting development charges. But is this the breakthrough Ontario’s housing market needs, or just the first step?
In this episode of The Missing Middle Podcast, Mike Moffatt sits down with Kim Fairley, President of Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), to unpack what Ontario’s new development charge reforms mean for homebuyers, builders, and municipalities – and what still needs to happen next.
They discuss:
 • Why development charges can add up to $200,000 to the cost of a new home in Ontario
 • How some Ontario cities have raised DCs by 1,000%–5,000% since 2000
 • Why Sault Ste. Marie has no development charges—and what other cities can learn from it
 • Whether recent provincial and federal reforms will actually improve affordability
 • What Ontario’s housing market could look like over the next 6–18 months

Chapters:

00:00 Intro: Ontario’s new development charge deal: what changes?
03:55 Is housing finally getting more affordable? 
05:14 Northern Ontario’s housing market: a different reality
07:09 Sault Ste. Marie has no development charges
08:07 Do buyers know how much development charges cost?
10:25 Why transparency on development charges matters
12:08 Lower housing costs without raising taxes? 
13:35 Do Ontarians support cutting development charges? 
16:07 Can politicians actually work together on housing? 
17:08 What happens next for Ontario housing? 
18:18 Progress made, but the hard part starts now 

Research/links:
How to Lower Development Charges Without Raising Property Taxes 
https://www.missingmiddleinitiative.ca/p/how-to-lower-development-charges

A Pathway to Development Charge Reform 
https://www.orea.com/advocacy/Development-Charge-Reform

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/