The Missing Middle Podcast

If birth rates are falling, is it really because people want fewer kids—or because they feel like they can’t afford them?

In this episode, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt unpack the growing gap between “preference” and “choice” when it comes to starting a family. From the rising financial and social costs of raising children to the pressure of modern parenting norms, they explore why having kids today feels harder, even for people who say they want them. The conversation dives into everything from delayed careers and housing affordability to the hidden impact of social media, the “arms race” of parenting, and what we can learn from Quebec’s subsidized childcare experiment.

The big takeaway: there’s no single cause and no single fix. But if we want a society where people can truly choose the family size they want, we may need to rethink everything from childcare and housing to culture itself.

Research/links:

Fertility Postponement, Economic Uncertainty, and the Rising Income Prerequisites of Parenthood – van Wijk and Billari (2024)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/padr.12624

Fertility Incentives in Canada: A Cohort Analysis – Lee and Liu (2024)
https://clef.uwaterloo.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CLEF-075-2024.pdf

The Role of Social Comparisons and Intensive Parenting – Mahler, Tertilt, and Yum, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2025)
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/5_Mahler_Tertilt_Yum_unembargoed.pdf

Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries – Demography (2021)
https://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article/58/4/1373/174063/Not-

Just-Later-but-Fewer-Novel-Trends-in-Cohort
Workism and Fertility: The Case of the Nordics (2024)
https://www.aei.org/articles/workism-and-fertility-the-case-of-the-nordics/

The Effect of Family Fertility Support Policies on Fertility – Zhang et al. (2023)
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10049131/
Fertility trends across the OECD: Underlying drivers and the role for policy: 

Society at a Glance 2024 | OECD
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/society-at-a-glance-2024_918d8db3-en/full-report/fertility-trends-across-the-oecd-underlying-drivers-and-the-role-for-policy_770679b8.html

Why Americans Are Delaying Parenthood
https://www.prb.org/news/why-americans-are-delaying-parenthood/

Canada is among countries with an ‘ultra-low fertility’ rate. What is behind the drop?
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/article/canada-is-among-countries-with-an-ultra-low-fertility-rate-what-is-behind-the-drop/

World Happiness Report 2026 | The World Happiness Report
https://www.worldhappiness.report/ed/2026/

She’s (Not) Having a Baby
https://www.cardus.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Shes-Not-Having-a-Baby.pdf
Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

Are provincial governments raising your taxes in secret? 

Economist Mike Moffatt and columnist Sabrina Maddeaux expose the hidden mechanism of bracket creep, a stealth tax increase impacting millions of Canadians.

Because fixed-tax brackets in provinces like B.C., Manitoba, and Ontario fail to adjust for inflation, middle-class workers are automatically pushed into higher tax tiers, forcing them to pay taxes as though they are wealthy even though their purchasing power remains flat.

We dive into why this particularly clobbers income-dependent younger Canadians (Millennials and Gen Z) and how Ontario's outdated surtax thresholds, which can be triggered by an income of less than $110,000, are punishing effort and driving out-migration. More than just money, this quiet revenue tool lacks democratic accountability, eroding trust in institutions and revealing a tax code desperately in need of a full rethink.

Key Topics: Bracket Creep, Stealth Taxes, Tax Policy, Inflation, Middle Class, Ontario Surtax, Mike Moffatt, Sabrina Maddeaux, Canadian Politics, Economic Inequality, Tax Reform.

Chapters:
00:00 Bracket Creep and its Impact on Purchasing Power
02:32 The Accountability Issue: Why Stealth Tax Increases Matter
04:06 How Bracket Creep Hits Income Earners and the Generational Divide
06:17 The Problem with Ontario's Outdated Surtax Thresholds
08:36 Political Ramifications and the Erosion of Trust in Institutions
10:10 The Need for a Tax Code Rethink
Research/links:
Sabrina's National Post column (source document): Sabrina Maddeaux: Provinces are profiting from your inflationary pain | National Post

Canadian Taxpayers Federation report on Manitoba bracket freeze: Newsroom

Kelowna Capital News on BC bracket freeze revenue projections: Detailing B.C.’s tax changes in Budget 2026, including income tax increases | Kelowna Capital News

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

For years, the Missing Middle team has advocated for reducing the tax burden on new construction. With pre-construction sales down 95% in some GTA markets, the industry has hit a wall where it simply makes no financial sense to build.

In this week’s episode, we answer some of the questions and misconceptions we’ve read online about the new HST rebate on new homes. 

Beyond the rebate, they explore bigger structural challenges like land costs, zoning, and competition in development. The key question remains whether this policy can meaningfully increase supply in a market that is still not functioning normally.

If the goal is to improve affordability, the HST rebate may help, but it is only one part of a much larger housing problem.
Chapters:

00:00 - Gov Announces HST Rebate and Reduced Development Charges
01:22 - Overview of HST Changes
01:52 -  History of Previous Rental and Ownership Rebates
02:58 - Expanding Eligibility Beyond First-Time Buyers
05:32 - Addressing the "Demand Subsidy" Misconception
07:25 - Will Developers Pass Savings to the Buyer?
09:04 - The Impact on Land Values and the Need for Reform
10:05 - Historical Comparison of Government Taxes and Fees
11:26 - How Accurate are the Government Numbers?
12:42 - Projected Impact and the One-Year Program Limit
14:09 - Retroactive Eligibility and Final Thoughts

Research/links:
Doug Ford and Mark Carney to expand HST rebate to all new home buyers
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/exclusive-ford-and-carney-to-expand-hst-rebate-to-all-new-home-buyers/article_55543d47-86b9-466d-bd17-6155c4d62097.html

Doug Ford and Mark Carney to expand HST rebate to all new home buyers : r/canadahousing
https://www.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/comments/1s3a8cs/doug_ford_and_mark_carney_to_expand_hst_rebate_to/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

If inflation is only around 2–3%, why does everything feel so much more expensive?

In this episode, we break down how inflation is actually measured, and why your personal experience can feel completely disconnected from the official numbers. From grocery bills and gas prices to rent and mortgages, not all price increases hit the same way—and some matter a lot more than others.

We also dig into the hidden forces shaping your cost of living: shrinkflation, quality drops (“chocolatey” vs. chocolate), and the limits of how agencies like Statistics Canada track price changes. The result? A single inflation number that masks wildly different realities depending on how you live, spend, and earn.

In other words: there isn’t one inflation rate. There are millions.

Chapters 
00:00 Intro: Why We Underestimate Inflation
00:28 Official Stats vs. Public Perception
01:20 Breaking Down the "Spending Basket"
02:07 Why Every Family Experiences Inflation Differently
03:33 Why Reading & Media Prices are Dropping
04:04 Biggest Price Jumps & Surprises
05:56 The Reality of Shrinkflation at the Grocery Store
06:46 The Kraft Dinner Test: Smaller Sizes, Same Price
07:43 Cutting Ingredients: Chocolate vs. "Chocolaty"
09:03 Housing & Shelter Inflation
11:46 Boomers vs. Gen Z: Who Wins in High Interest Rates?
12:55 Final Thoughts: One Economy, Multiple Realities
Research Links:
Consumer Price Index and Inflation Perceptions in Canada: Can measurement approaches or behavioural factors explain the gap?
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/62f0014m/62f0014m2021017-eng.htm

Shrinking products, rising prices: Food-specific quantity adjustments in the Consumer Price Index
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-627-m/11-627-m2025016-eng.htm 

Greedy bastards. This just happened in the past few weeks.
https://www.reddit.com/r/loblawsisoutofcontrol/comments/1s116uj/greedy_bastards_this_just_happened_in_the_past/ 

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this episode of The Missing Middle, Cara Stern sits down with YouTuber Paige Saunders to discuss the one structural glitch that is sabotaging Canada’s economy, healthcare, and housing market: our electoral system.
While most democracies have moved on to Proportional Representation, Canada remains stuck with a model that empowers swing ridings and ignores millions of voters. Paige explains why this monopoly on power prevents real innovation and how a simple change in how we vote could lead to a 20% performance increase across the board.
In this video:
How our voting system benefits wealthy people
Which voting system would a villain choose?
Why Ranked Choice is a trap for multi-party democracies.
The path forward: Why we need a binding Citizens' Assembly.
Check out Paige Saunders' channel: https://www.youtube.com/@PaigeMTL
Chapters:
00:37 Intro: The hidden force behind Canada’s biggest problems
01:12 What’s broken about Canada’s voting system
01:48 How swing ridings control the country
04:03 Why politicians ignore entire groups of voters
05:26 Does proportional representation hurt suburbs?
06:59 Populism, power, and lack of accountability
08:59 Why this won’t magically fix housing
10:17 Why politicians refuse to change the system
11:11 Why most Canadians don’t even notice the problem
12:58 Is Canada heading down the US/UK path?
15:13 Why electoral reform keeps failing
19:40 The real barrier to change
24:24 The AI test: which system is worst?
29:12 “I was shocked Canada still uses this”
32:28 Is Canada falling behind on democracy?
36:03 Can anything actually force reform?
40:00 What a better system could look like
42:45 Final thoughts: a more Canadian democracy

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.