The Missing Middle Podcast

Why are so many young Canadian families leaving Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal? Even after return-to-office mandates, the exodus from Canada's largest cities continues.
In this episode of Classonomics, Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux explore the data behind Canada's urban migration trends and debate why affordability isn't the only factor driving people away. They discuss housing costs, crime and public safety, mental health, community, urban planning, and whether government policies are making sprawl even worse.
Topics covered:
Why Canadians are leaving the GTA, Metro Vancouver, and Montreal
Why return-to-office hasn't reversed the trend
Housing affordability and the shortage of family-sized homes
Crime, public safety, and quality of life in big cities
Mental health, community, and life satisfaction
Urban growth boundaries, the Greenbelt, and sprawl
Why smaller cities are attracting young families
What policymakers are getting wrong about housing and urban planning

Subscribe for more conversations on housing, economics, public policy, and the future of Canada.

Chapters: 
00:00 The Great Canadian Family Exodus
01:05 Mike's Biggest Prediction Miss
03:05 Why Millennials Are Leaving Cities
04:17 Is Toronto Becoming Too Chaotic?
06:22 Does Crime Make Families Move?
09:44 Are Small Towns Better for Mental Health?
11:57 Why Community Matters More Than Ever
14:32 It All Comes Back to Housing
15:35 The Greenbelt's Unintended Consequences
17:29 When Good Environmental Policy Goes Wrong
18:40 The Case for Evidence-Based Policy

Research/links:
Housing is a large part of the story. The OECD has examined this:
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/05/oecd-economic-surveys-canada-2025_ee18a269/full-report/improving-housing-affordability_3d430d2e.html
As has Statistics Canada: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/241119/dq241119b-eng.htm 
Remote Work and Employment Dynamics under COVID-19: Evidence from Canada
 https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7971424/
Upjohn Institute: https://www.upjohn.org/remote-works-quiet-impact-rural-communities
C.D. Howe: https://cdhowe.org/publication/settling-new-normal-working-home-across-canada/ 
Social ties and quality of life, including lower rates of depression: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-x/2025002/article/00003-eng.htm 
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20376426/ 
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-design/article-why-some-people-are-choosing-country-life-over-the-city/ 
Though evidence is nuanced: https://www.cmaj.ca/content/184/17/E889 

Crime and disorder:

https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/urban-violent-crime-report-comparing-crime-across-canadian-cities-volume-2/
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2025001/article/00005-eng.htm 
McDonald-Laurier Report: https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Urban-Violent-Crime-Report_Final.pdf 

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/

Thinking about taking parental leave in Canada?

In this episode of DemograFix Cara Stern talks with Jasmine Steffler (from Walkable Parenthood and Oh The Urbanity!) about her experience navigating parental leave. From understanding benefits and income replacement to finding childcare, building community, and adjusting to life with a new baby, Cara and Jasmine know what it takes to grow a family in Canada.

If you're expecting a child or planning a family, this conversation covers many of the practical questions parents have before taking leave:

✅ How parental leave and EI benefits work in Canada
✅ The difference between 12- and 18-month leave options
✅ Why Quebec's parental leave system is different
✅ How much income you can expect while on leave
✅ Finding daycare and understanding childcare costs
✅ Building community and avoiding isolation during leave
✅ Life with a baby in a walkable city without owning a car
✅ What we wish we knew before taking leave

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction to Canadian Parental Leave
00:48 Understanding Parental Leave Policies
02:29 Choosing the Length of Leave
02:51 The Quebec Parental Insurance Plan vs. Other Provinces
05:08 Navigating the Childcare System
06:15 Financial Challenges and Income Replacement
07:50 Walking and Cycling Without a Car
10:19 Finding Community During Parental Leave
12:50 Lessons Learned and Future Considerations
15:55 Traveling with a Young Child
16:49 Conclusion and Outro

Research/links:
The effect of leave policies on increasing fertility: a systematic review | Humanities and Social Sciences Communications 
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01270-w

(PDF) Does Parental Leave Affect Fertility and Return-to-Work? Evidence from a "True Natural Experiment" 
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5135837_Does_Parental_Leave_Affect_Fertility_and_Return-to-Work_Evidence_from_a_True_Natural_Experiment

The Daily — Fertility and baby names, 2024 
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250924/dq250924d-eng.htm

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/

Happy Canada Day!
In this special Canada Day episode of The Missing Middle Podcast, the team takes a break from focusing on Canada's challenges to share what makes them optimistic about the country's future. From housing reforms and immigration to education, community, nature, and Canadian values, each member reflects on what they love most about Canada and why they remain hopeful.
Topics covered:
Housing reform and recent progress on zoning and development charges
Canada's sense of community and belonging
Education affordability and student experiences
Immigration and Canada's multicultural identity
Nature, cities, and public spaces
Canadian humour, humility, and culture
Canadian values, civic engagement, and democracy
Why constructive criticism is a form of patriotism
What gives Canadians reason for optimism heading into the future
What makes you optimistic about Canada? Let us know in the comments below. 
#CanadaDay #Canada #TheMissingMiddle #CanadaHousing #CanadianEconomy #CanadianValues

Chapters:
YouTube Chapters (8:52)
00:00 Why We're Talking About Optimism This Canada Day
00:40 Cara Stern: Summers, Housing & Reasons for Optimism
01:43 Sean Foreman: Canada's Secret Weapon is Humour
02:57 Kelly Hoban: An American's Perspective on Canada
03:52 Meredith Martin: Nature, Immigration & Hope
05:36 Sabrina Maddeaux: Canadian Values, Kindness & Common Sense
07:48 Mike Moffatt: Why Criticism Is Patriotism

Research/Links:
A History of Tommy Thompson Park
https://trca.ca/news/tommy-thompson-park-history/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/

For years, Canada's housing strategy focused on increasing the number of housing units built. But even during periods of record apartment construction, family-sized homes became increasingly scarce.
In this episode of the Demografix, Mike Moffatt and Cara Stern unpack a major problem hidden inside Canada's housing statistics: the country is building fewer family-sized homes than it did 20 years ago.
Why are three-bedroom homes becoming so difficult to find? Why are developers building more small condos instead of homes for families? And how do zoning rules, development charges, land shortages, and housing policies shape what gets built?
The conversation explores:
• Why housing "units" and housing "homes" are not the same thing
• The dramatic decline in single-detached homes, semis, and townhouses
• Why family-sized condos remain rare and expensive
• How rising land costs and government policies affect housing supply
• The connection between housing affordability and Canada's falling birth rate
• Why many young families are leaving major cities
• Policy solutions that could help create more family-friendly housing
If Canada wants cities that work for young families, workers, and future generations, we need to start measuring success by more than just the number of housing units built.
Chapters:
00:55 What Families Actually Need In A Home
02:00 Why Three-Bedroom Apartments Are So Rare
04:09 Why Condos Stop Making Sense For Families
05:00 Canada Is Building Fewer Family-Sized Homes
07:06 The Problem With Counting “Units” Instead Of Homes
09:03 Who Shoebox Condos Actually Work For
10:07 If Demand Is Strong, Why Aren’t Builders Responding?
12:14 Why The GTA Builds Fewer Family Homes
14:02 Urban Boundaries, Sprawl, And Long Commutes
15:16 Taxes And Fees That Favor McMansions
16:52 Why Developers Don’t Build Family-Sized Apartments
18:28 Housing Costs, Birth Rates, And Families Leaving Cities
22:05 How Canada Could Fix Family Housing

Research/links:

From Policy Gridlock to Housing Growth: A Roadmap for Gentle Density
https://www.missingmiddleinitiative.ca/p/from-policy-gridlock-to-housing-growth 

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is finally here and Canada is on a roll! But as the excitement builds on the pitch, we're asking the tough questions: will this massive event actually deliver the economic win that was promised?
In this episode, Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux dive into the real costs of hosting the world's biggest party. They break down the billion-dollar price tags, FIFA's business model, and whether taxpayers are getting stuck with the bill while others reap the rewards. (Producer note: This episode was recorded on June 5th, 2026.)
Topics covered:
The economics of hosting the FIFA World Cup
Why economists question projected economic benefits
Public spending on stadiums, security, and infrastructure
Tourism displacement and local business impacts
Housing, short-term rentals, and affordability concerns
FIFA's revenue model and tax treatment
Transit, traffic, and quality-of-life effects for residents
Lessons from previous World Cup host countries
Dynamic ticket pricing and the changing fan experience
If you enjoy thoughtful discussions on housing, infrastructure, public policy, and the economic issues affecting Canada's middle class, subscribe for more episodes from The Missing Middle.

Chapters:
00:00 The World Cup's Economic Myth
00:49 The Benefits Nobody Talks About
03:32 Can Hosting the World Cup Actually Lose Money?
05:11 Why More Tourists Doesn't Mean More Growth
07:00 Who's Really Paying the $1 Billion Bill?
08:23 FIFA's Billion-Dollar Business Model
09:19 Cities Pay, FIFA Profits
10:39 The Tax Breaks You Didn't Know About
12:27 The Hidden Costs for Residents
15:21 What Past World Cups Teach Us
17:07 Are These Games Worth the Price?
17:49 Why World Cup Tickets Are Exploding in Cost
19:22 The People's Game or a VIP Experience?
Research:

BMO Capital Markets -- Canada World Cup GDP boost (up to $6.5B):
https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/news/industry-news/bmo-world-cup-2026-set-to-deliver-up-to-c65-billion-economic-boost-for-canada/392593

The World Cup is expensive, but it’s our turn to pick up the tab
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/soccer/article-the-world-cup-is-expensive-but-its-our-turn-to-pick-up-the-tab/

ProPublica -- 'You do, you pay, we take': how FIFA's host city deals work:
https://www.propublica.org/article/world-cup-2026-host-cities-revenue-houston

CBC -- FIFA/Deloitte economic impact assessment for Canada ($3.8B figure):
https://www.cbc.ca/sports/soccer/world-cup-2026-canada-fifa-economic-benefits-1.7406435 

BNN Bloomberg -- Why economic impact on Vancouver and Toronto may never be known:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/05/11/blind-side-why-world-cup-economic-impact-on-vancouver-and-toronto-may-never-be-known/

Bloomberg Tax -- FIFA 2026 World Cup tax demands on host countries:
https://news.bloombergtax.com/tax-management-international/fifa-2026-world-cup-blows-the-whistle-on-complex-tax-risks

CP24 -- Toronto holds transit fares steady; NJ Transit $48M bill; Boston $80 game-day fare:
https://www.cp24.com/local/toronto/2026/04/16/toronto-will-not-hike-cost-of-transit-during-world-cup-as-other-host-cities-announce-big-fare-increases-to-venues/

ESPN -- World Cup ticket sticker shock and dynamic pricing:
https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48947095/2026-fifa-world-cup-sticker-shock-ugly-cost-beautiful-game-grand-event

Victor Matheson / Holy Cross -- The Economics of the World Cup (academic; stadium white elephants, tourism overestimates):
https://hcapps.holycross.edu/hcs/RePEc/hcx/HC1805-Matheson_WorldCup.pdf

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/