The Missing Middle Podcast

Canada has a massive problem: our national productivity is near the bottom of the G7. Decades of government policies, from free trade to tax cuts, haven't worked.

Why? Because policymakers are focused on greed (incentives) and not enough on fear (competition and risk).

We dive into the core failure of Canadian economic policy, exposing how corporate welfare and easy access to foreign workers kill innovation. Plus, hear the shocking truth about why Canadian retailers won't stock products from homegrown businesses until they succeed in the U.S. first.

We discuss Charles Lamman’s critique and Don Drummond's "confessions" to find out how to fix Canada's risk-aversion crisis and finally push our economy forward.

Chapters:
00:00:00 | Defining Productivity: Real GDP per Hour Worked
00:01:42 | Canada's Long Decline: The Charles Lamman Critique
00:03:15 | Don Drummond’s Confessions: The Failure of Decades of Policies
00:04:14 | Red Tape: The Omission That Stops Building
00:04:51 | The Core Flaw: Too Much Greed, Not Enough Fear
00:06:46 | Corporate Welfare and the Temporary Foreign Worker Trap
00:08:01 | Canada’s National Risk Aversion: Why Retailers Look South

Research:
Labour productivity and related measures, by business sector industry, seasonally adjusted, fourth quarter 2025
Productivity is an urgent problem for Canada. The response? A 15-year study
Confessions of a Serial Productivity Researcher
Canada: Q4 Productivity Slips Under the Weight of Tariffs and Uncertainty
From Bad to Worse: Canada’s Productivity Slowdown is Everyone’s Problem
Eighteen ideas on how to kickstart the Canadian economy
What Is Canada’s Productivity Performance and How Does It Compare to Other Countries?*
Towards An Inclusive Innovative Canada
https://canada2020.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/020317-EN-FULL-FINAL.pdf
https://www.ft.com/content/b7e6996b-f896-4a45-aad3-d1068e88341a?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Out of Nowhere: How Canada Fell Behind Alabama

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

If birth rates are falling, is it really because people want fewer kids—or because they feel like they can’t afford them?

In this episode, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt unpack the growing gap between “preference” and “choice” when it comes to starting a family. From the rising financial and social costs of raising children to the pressure of modern parenting norms, they explore why having kids today feels harder, even for people who say they want them. The conversation dives into everything from delayed careers and housing affordability to the hidden impact of social media, the “arms race” of parenting, and what we can learn from Quebec’s subsidized childcare experiment.

The big takeaway: there’s no single cause and no single fix. But if we want a society where people can truly choose the family size they want, we may need to rethink everything from childcare and housing to culture itself.

Research/links:

Fertility Postponement, Economic Uncertainty, and the Rising Income Prerequisites of Parenthood – van Wijk and Billari (2024)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/padr.12624

Fertility Incentives in Canada: A Cohort Analysis – Lee and Liu (2024)
https://clef.uwaterloo.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CLEF-075-2024.pdf

The Role of Social Comparisons and Intensive Parenting – Mahler, Tertilt, and Yum, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2025)
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/5_Mahler_Tertilt_Yum_unembargoed.pdf

Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries – Demography (2021)
https://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article/58/4/1373/174063/Not-

Just-Later-but-Fewer-Novel-Trends-in-Cohort
Workism and Fertility: The Case of the Nordics (2024)
https://www.aei.org/articles/workism-and-fertility-the-case-of-the-nordics/

The Effect of Family Fertility Support Policies on Fertility – Zhang et al. (2023)
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10049131/
Fertility trends across the OECD: Underlying drivers and the role for policy: 

Society at a Glance 2024 | OECD
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/society-at-a-glance-2024_918d8db3-en/full-report/fertility-trends-across-the-oecd-underlying-drivers-and-the-role-for-policy_770679b8.html

Why Americans Are Delaying Parenthood
https://www.prb.org/news/why-americans-are-delaying-parenthood/

Canada is among countries with an ‘ultra-low fertility’ rate. What is behind the drop?
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/article/canada-is-among-countries-with-an-ultra-low-fertility-rate-what-is-behind-the-drop/

World Happiness Report 2026 | The World Happiness Report
https://www.worldhappiness.report/ed/2026/

She’s (Not) Having a Baby
https://www.cardus.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Shes-Not-Having-a-Baby.pdf
Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

Are provincial governments raising your taxes in secret? 

Economist Mike Moffatt and columnist Sabrina Maddeaux expose the hidden mechanism of bracket creep, a stealth tax increase impacting millions of Canadians.

Because fixed-tax brackets in provinces like B.C., Manitoba, and Ontario fail to adjust for inflation, middle-class workers are automatically pushed into higher tax tiers, forcing them to pay taxes as though they are wealthy even though their purchasing power remains flat.

We dive into why this particularly clobbers income-dependent younger Canadians (Millennials and Gen Z) and how Ontario's outdated surtax thresholds, which can be triggered by an income of less than $110,000, are punishing effort and driving out-migration. More than just money, this quiet revenue tool lacks democratic accountability, eroding trust in institutions and revealing a tax code desperately in need of a full rethink.

Key Topics: Bracket Creep, Stealth Taxes, Tax Policy, Inflation, Middle Class, Ontario Surtax, Mike Moffatt, Sabrina Maddeaux, Canadian Politics, Economic Inequality, Tax Reform.

Chapters:
00:00 Bracket Creep and its Impact on Purchasing Power
02:32 The Accountability Issue: Why Stealth Tax Increases Matter
04:06 How Bracket Creep Hits Income Earners and the Generational Divide
06:17 The Problem with Ontario's Outdated Surtax Thresholds
08:36 Political Ramifications and the Erosion of Trust in Institutions
10:10 The Need for a Tax Code Rethink
Research/links:
Sabrina's National Post column (source document): Sabrina Maddeaux: Provinces are profiting from your inflationary pain | National Post

Canadian Taxpayers Federation report on Manitoba bracket freeze: Newsroom

Kelowna Capital News on BC bracket freeze revenue projections: Detailing B.C.’s tax changes in Budget 2026, including income tax increases | Kelowna Capital News

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

For years, the Missing Middle team has advocated for reducing the tax burden on new construction. With pre-construction sales down 95% in some GTA markets, the industry has hit a wall where it simply makes no financial sense to build.

In this week’s episode, we answer some of the questions and misconceptions we’ve read online about the new HST rebate on new homes. 

Beyond the rebate, they explore bigger structural challenges like land costs, zoning, and competition in development. The key question remains whether this policy can meaningfully increase supply in a market that is still not functioning normally.

If the goal is to improve affordability, the HST rebate may help, but it is only one part of a much larger housing problem.
Chapters:

00:00 - Gov Announces HST Rebate and Reduced Development Charges
01:22 - Overview of HST Changes
01:52 -  History of Previous Rental and Ownership Rebates
02:58 - Expanding Eligibility Beyond First-Time Buyers
05:32 - Addressing the "Demand Subsidy" Misconception
07:25 - Will Developers Pass Savings to the Buyer?
09:04 - The Impact on Land Values and the Need for Reform
10:05 - Historical Comparison of Government Taxes and Fees
11:26 - How Accurate are the Government Numbers?
12:42 - Projected Impact and the One-Year Program Limit
14:09 - Retroactive Eligibility and Final Thoughts

Research/links:
Doug Ford and Mark Carney to expand HST rebate to all new home buyers
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/exclusive-ford-and-carney-to-expand-hst-rebate-to-all-new-home-buyers/article_55543d47-86b9-466d-bd17-6155c4d62097.html

Doug Ford and Mark Carney to expand HST rebate to all new home buyers : r/canadahousing
https://www.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/comments/1s3a8cs/doug_ford_and_mark_carney_to_expand_hst_rebate_to/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

If inflation is only around 2–3%, why does everything feel so much more expensive?

In this episode, we break down how inflation is actually measured, and why your personal experience can feel completely disconnected from the official numbers. From grocery bills and gas prices to rent and mortgages, not all price increases hit the same way—and some matter a lot more than others.

We also dig into the hidden forces shaping your cost of living: shrinkflation, quality drops (“chocolatey” vs. chocolate), and the limits of how agencies like Statistics Canada track price changes. The result? A single inflation number that masks wildly different realities depending on how you live, spend, and earn.

In other words: there isn’t one inflation rate. There are millions.

Chapters 
00:00 Intro: Why We Underestimate Inflation
00:28 Official Stats vs. Public Perception
01:20 Breaking Down the "Spending Basket"
02:07 Why Every Family Experiences Inflation Differently
03:33 Why Reading & Media Prices are Dropping
04:04 Biggest Price Jumps & Surprises
05:56 The Reality of Shrinkflation at the Grocery Store
06:46 The Kraft Dinner Test: Smaller Sizes, Same Price
07:43 Cutting Ingredients: Chocolate vs. "Chocolaty"
09:03 Housing & Shelter Inflation
11:46 Boomers vs. Gen Z: Who Wins in High Interest Rates?
12:55 Final Thoughts: One Economy, Multiple Realities
Research Links:
Consumer Price Index and Inflation Perceptions in Canada: Can measurement approaches or behavioural factors explain the gap?
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/62f0014m/62f0014m2021017-eng.htm

Shrinking products, rising prices: Food-specific quantity adjustments in the Consumer Price Index
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-627-m/11-627-m2025016-eng.htm 

Greedy bastards. This just happened in the past few weeks.
https://www.reddit.com/r/loblawsisoutofcontrol/comments/1s116uj/greedy_bastards_this_just_happened_in_the_past/ 

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.