The Missing Middle Podcast

Many people assume Canada’s suburbs are destined to decline as Baby Boomers age and younger generations embrace urban living. But does the data actually support that?

In this episode of DemograFix, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt examine new Statistics Canada research on how immigrants’ housing choices evolve over time. While most newcomers begin as renters in urban centres, the data shows many transition into homeownership, including family-sized homes in the suburbs, as they build their lives in Canada.

They also test this prediction against several scenarios that could prove it wrong, including lower immigration, more family-sized housing in cities, rising emigration, and changing housing preferences.

Chapters:

00:00 Why Everyone Got the Future of the Suburbs Wrong
00:27 Do Immigrants Actually Want Suburban Homes?
01:54 Why Newcomers Rent First—Then Buy Houses
04:33 Are Immigrants Buying Condos or Single-Family Homes?
06:56 Why Immigration Policy Shapes Housing Demand
08:03 Will Baby Boomers Flood the Market With Homes?
09:13 What Could Kill Demand for the Canadian Suburb?
10:28 Could Better Cities Replace the Suburbs?
12:04 Will Young Canadians Leave Instead of Buying Homes?
13:09 Is the Dream of a House With a Backyard Dying?
14:21 Does Canada's Housing Market Still Attract Immigrants?
17:54 Why People Buy Homes Even When It's a Bad Investment
19:15 The Housing Lesson Policymakers Keep Missing

Research/links:

Housing use of immigrants and non-permanent residents in ownership and rental markets https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2025005/article/00003-eng.htm

The homeownership trajectories of recent immigrants
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/46-28-0001/2026001/article/00002-eng.htm

Credits:
Mike Moffatt 
https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt
https://bsky.app/profile/mikepmoffatt.bsky.social

Cara Stern 
https://x.com/carastern
https://bsky.app/profile/carastern.bsky.social

Meredith Martin 
https://twitter.com/meredithmartin
https://bsky.app/profile/meredithmartin.bsky.social

Sean Foreman
@seanegertonforeman
https://bsky.app/profile/seanforeman.bsky.social

Co-op Student
Kelly Hoban
Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/

Canada has spent decades trying to curb urban sprawl through policies like greenbelts, urban growth boundaries, and higher development charges, but what if those policies are having the opposite effect?

In this episode, Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux examine the rise of "leapfrog development," where families priced out of cities move beyond growth boundaries into neighbouring communities, leading to longer commutes, higher infrastructure costs, and even more sprawl. They explore real-world examples from Ottawa, London, and the Greater Toronto Area, discuss the research behind these trends, and ask whether it's time to rethink how Canadian cities grow.

Topics covered:

Why urban growth boundaries were created
What leapfrog development is and why it matters
How greenbelts and development charges affect housing affordability
Why more families are moving outside city limits
The Ottawa and Carleton Place case study
Statistics Canada's commuting data and metro boundaries
The relationship between housing costs, commuting, and emissions
Why regional planning may work better than local planning
Can cities reduce sprawl without pricing families out?
Subscribe for more conversations on housing, affordability, economics, and public policy in Canada.
#Housing #Canada #UrbanPlanning #HousingCrisis #RealEstate #Affordability #Greenbelt #UrbanSprawl #PublicPolicy #MissingMiddle

Chapters:
00:00 Is the Greenbelt Actually Causing More Sprawl?
01:33 The "Strange Pattern" of Ontario's Development 
03:11 How StatsCan Defines Metro Boundaries 
05:07 The Rise of the "Commuter Village" 
07:59 What is "Leapfrog Development" & Why Boundaries Fail 
11:02 Why the Environmental Movement Refuses to Change Its Mind 
12:51 Anti-Sprawl Politics: Virtue Signaling vs. Real Outcomes 

Research:
Did Development Charges Cause Metro Ottawa to Grow by Over 1000km in Size?
https://www.missingmiddleinitiative.ca/p/did-development-charges-cause-metro 

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/

Has having three kids become a status symbol in Canada?
In this episode of DemograFix, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt explore why having three children has become a luxury for many middle-class Canadian families. From the cost of family-sized housing to childcare, career sacrifices, transportation, and the changing expectations placed on parents, they break down why so many families stop at two, even when they wanted more.
The conversation also looks at Canadian and international research on fertility, Quebec's childcare experiment, why family-sized homes have almost disappeared from our cities, and what governments would actually need to change if they want Canadians to have the families they hope for.
If you've ever wondered why three kids now feels like a status symbol, this episode explains the economics behind it.

Topics covered:
Why Canada's fertility rate has reached record lows
Is a third child becoming a luxury good?
How housing shortages shape family size
Why family-sized homes are disappearing
The hidden career costs of having children
Does affordable childcare actually increase birth rates?
Why cities are losing young families
What policies could make raising larger families affordable again

Chapters:
00:00 Why 3 Kids Are Becoming a Rich Person's Luxury
00:58 When Families Become Status Symbols
03:03 The Housing Crisis is Eliminating the Third Child
05:09 Canada Stopped Building Family Homes
06:28 The Big Childcare Problem
07:55 Does Cheap Childcare Actually Boost Birth Rates?
12:15 The Real Cost of a Third Baby
15:07 Families Are Being Forced Out of Cities
17:20 How Canada Could Make Three Kids Affordable Again

Research/links:
More Crowding, Fewer Babies: The Effects of Housing Density on Fertility | Institute for Family Studies 
https://ifstudies.org/blog/more-crowding-fewer-babies-the-effects-of-housing-density-on-fertility

The ultimate status symbol? A big family
https://www.ft.com/content/a4025e93-7552-4f8f-8ce2-e785a7d950a4?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Opinion | Three Kids? You Showoffs. - The Washington Post 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2008/04/06/three-kids-you-showoffs/6b7952ed-4547-4f9b-ae9b-cd9d2f1d8aa0/

Why are some families with children leaving the inner city and other staying? 
https://www.scup.com/doi/10.18261/njus.2.1.2
Home Alone | Cardus 
https://www.cardus.ca/research/family/reports/home-alone/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/

Is 500,000 new homes a year really what Canada needs to solve the housing crisis?
In this episode of the Missing Middle’s Classonomics Podcast, Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux examine whether Canada's headline housing targets still make sense now that immigration has slowed and population growth has changed. They discuss why housing starts can be a misleading metric, why the type of housing being built matters just as much as the number of homes, and what governments should actually measure if the goal is restoring affordability.
Topics covered:
Why the 500,000-home target may no longer be necessary
How immigration affects housing demand
Why housing starts don't tell the full story
The shortage of family-sized homes
High-rise condos vs. townhomes and detached homes
The hidden costs preventing more housing from being built
What metrics governments should focus on instead of housing starts
Can Canada restore middle-class housing affordability within a decade?
Subscribe for more conversations on housing, affordability, economics, and public policy.
Chapters:
00:00 - Does Canada Really Need 500,000 Homes a Year?
01:40 - Where Did the 500k Housing Starts Target Come From?
02:47 - The Metrics Governments Should Focus On Instead
04:11 - Balancing Housing Supply with Immigration Demand
05:21 - The Population Math: Why 500k is Overkill
06:40 - How Developers Bet on Future Immigration Policy
08:39 - Why the Type of Housing Matters (High-Rises vs. Townhomes)
10:12 - How Many Homes We Actually Need to Build
11:08 - Solving the Crisis by Lowering Construction Costs
13:04 - Will Baby Boomers Free Up Suburban Housing?
Research/links
The Impossible Trinity that Broke Canadian Housing
https://open.substack.com/pub/missingmiddleinitiative/p/the-impossible-trinity-that-broke?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
The Housing Trilemma: Why You Can't Afford a Home
https://www.missingmiddleinitiative.ca/p/the-housing-trilemma-why-you-cant 
Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/

When a business faces a labour shortage, the free market says they should raise wages. So why is Canada’s government stepping in to make labour cheaper instead?
In this episode of The Missing Middle, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt dive into how Canada's low-wage Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) program and the explosion of international student work caps have completely disrupted the laws of supply and demand. As Canadian youth face historic unemployment rates, we break down how corporate lobbying and government policy created a cheat code that insulates businesses from capitalism, while pushing young workers off the first rung of the career ladder.
From the housing crisis in Alberta's mountain tourist towns to Tim Hortons' recent PR scramble, we expose the loop of corporate reliance on exploitable temporary labor and ask: how do we let the market actually fix itself?
Topics covered:
Canada's rising youth unemployment rate
The Temporary Foreign Worker Program explained
How international student work rules affect the job market
Why labour shortages don't always mean there aren't enough workers
Seasonal jobs, tourism, and staff housing
The economics of wages, supply, and demand
Tim Hortons and the TFW controversy
Policy solutions to improve opportunities for young Canadians
#Canada #YouthUnemployment #TemporaryForeignWorkers #Jobs #CanadianEconomy #LabourMarket #Economics #Immigration #PublicPolicy #MissingMiddle

Chapters:
00:00 - The Free Market Myth in Canada
01:24 - Gen Z vs. Gen X: The Youth Unemployment Crisis
02:12 - Why Student Jobs Suddenly Vanished
03:32 - How the TFW Program Ballooned Over 50 Years
05:39 - The Corporate Lobbying Flipping Immigration Rules
07:11 - Debunking the Alberta "Labour Shortage"
09:47 - Why Canada Insulates Businesses From Capitalism
11:11 - What "Dirty Dancing" Teaches Us About Seasonal Housing
14:06 - The Dark Side of Temporary Work Regulations
16:02 - Exposing Tim Hortons' "Local Hiring" PR Spin
18:57 - How to Break the TFW Doom Loop

Research/links:

Tourist towns ‘desperate’ for workers in Alberta
https://www.cp24.com/news/2026/03/28/i-have-to-find-at-least-35-people-before-june-1-worker-shortages-in-albertas-tourist-towns/
Tim Hortons says it will hire locals, scale back temporary foreign workers
https://globalnews.ca/news/11863474/tim-hortons-temporary-foreign-workers/
Tim Hortons is Committed to Local Hiring Launching National Campaign to Hire 10,000 Local Team Members 
https://www.news.timhortons.ca/en/articles/tim-hortons-is-committed-to-local-hiring-launching-national-camp
Youth unemployment in Canada jumped 57% in 3 years, hitting levels previously unseen outside a recession
https://thehub.ca/2026/05/07/canadas-youth-unemployment-jumped-57-in-3-years-hit-unprecedented-jobless-levels-outside-recession-by-2025/
Youth unemployment in Canada near record highs since 2022; unprecedented levels outside of a recession
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/extraordinary-increase-youth-unemployment-canada
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/extraordinary-increase-of-youth-unemployment-in-canada.pdf

Temporary ForeignWorkers in Canada:Are They Really Filling Labour Shortages?
https://cdhowe.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/commentary_407.pdf
StatsCan: Drayton Valley statistical area sees lowest unemployment in Alberta at 4.9 per cent
https://www.bigwestcountry.ca/2026/06/05/statscan-drayton-valley-statistical-area-sees-lowest-unemployment-in-alberta-at-4-9-per-cent/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20latest%20Labour,5.3%20per%20cent%20in%20April
Canada’s Temporary Foreign Worker Programs - The Canadian Encyclopedia
https://thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/canadas-temporary-foreign-worker-programs
Businesses face new limits on temporary foreign worker program
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tfw-program-new-limits-1.7333777
3 problems with the temporary foreign worker program and 3 possible fixes, according to experts
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/temporary-foreign-worker-program-fixes-1.7633045

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/