More or Less

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
(00:42) Frustrated economists have been left rending their garments and howling in the streets after the UK’s ‘productivity puzzle’ - a decade-long head-scratching, soul-searching conundrum - disappeared with a click of the fingers and a tweak of the methodology. Should the Office for National Statistics have acted sooner? We ask Financial Times economic guru Chris Giles.
(07:26) Can it really be true that by the 1960s, one in ten Irish children entered religious orders? Reporter Lizzy McNeill has the answer, and the history.
(13:51) Is the AI datacentre goldrush threatening to swamp our electricity grid? And what are the consequences for its carbon footprint? We delicately untangle the live wires of this hot potato and give the people what they want: nuanced #GridChat.
(20:38) This is the way the album ends - not with a banger, but with a whimper. Music Substacker Mitchell Stirling has used data to test the decades theory that albums tend to end with a quiet track. Come for the explanation of the physics of vinyl, stay for whatever music we end up being able to use.
Guests:
Chris Giles - Economics Commentator at the Financial Times
Johnny Gowdy - Director at Regen
Mitchell Stirling - Substacker, data nerd, music nerd (Renaissance man)
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporters: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Are fruit and vegetables less nutritious than they used to be? And is declining soil quality to blame?
Loyal listener Sarah got in touch to ask us to investigate an interesting quote from Dr Karan Rajan in a BBC news story.
“We know our soil is not as nutrient dense as it was decades ago,” he said. “So a carrot in the 1950s will be far more nutrient-rich than a 2026 carrot.”
Is this really true? wondered Sarah. We wondered the same, so we spoke to some experts on fruit and veg nutrition to find out.
CONTRIBUTORS
Robin  Marles, a former senior scientist in Canada’s  Food and Nutrition Directorate
Professor Steve McGrath, a research scientist at Rothamsted Research
CREDITS
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Mix: Sue Maillot
Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
(00:33) Are crumbling teeth the number one reason children attend A&E? We drill down into the dental health of the nation’s kids.
(08:20) The US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has claimed that a quarter of pharmaceuticals used in the UK come from Israel. We check the facts.
(13:20) Is former Education Secretary Michael Gove responsible for increasing number of young people not in education, employment or training?
(20:11) An AI researcher has caused a global firestorm by suggesting there’s more than a 10% chance AI kills all humans within the next decade. We explore the rigorous maths (or lack thereof) behind these kinds of predictions.
Guests:
Dr Chris Vernazza - head of the School of Dental Sciences at Newcastle University
Daisy Christodoulou - Director of Education at No More Marketing
Dr Alexandru Marcoci - Assistant Professor of Global Risk and Resilience at the University of Cambridge
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Phoebe Keane
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill

Every year, climate scientists keep a close eye on data coming out of a particular area of the Pacific Ocean. They’re trying to measure the scale of a climate phenomenon - the El Niño event or effect.
This is a naturally occurring phenomenon where ocean surface temperatures rise, transferring warmth from the ocean to the atmosphere. This can drive up global temperatures but also play havoc with weather systems, with profound consequences.
And this year, scientists have watched with ever-widening eyes, as their projections for the peak of this year’ El Niño event have come in unprecedently high.
Indeed, one climate scientist has argued that it's not beyond the realm of possibility to say this might be the strongest El Niño event in 500 or even 1,000 years.
We wanted to find out more, so we went straight to the scientist himself.
Contributor:
Dr. Zeke Hausfather - research scientist with Berkeley Earth and climate research lead at Stripe
Credits:
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nathan Gower
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
(00:38) The number of people being recalled to prison after early release in England and Wales is rising sharply. Why?
(07:37) Is the UK millionaire an endangered species? We ask Duncan Weldon - he’s like David Attenborough, but for economics.
(14:21) A viral graph seems to show that Europe is having a record low year for wildfires. How can we reconcile this with this summer’s shocking coverage of fires in France and Spain?
(21:36) We all know seagulls are low-life thieves - but can they really be responsible for £171m worth of robbery? Prepare for five minutes of public service journalism at its finest.
Guests:
Cassia Rowland, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government
Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor at Our World in Data
Duncan Weldon, economist and author of Blood and Treasure
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Phoebe Keane, Josh McMinn
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: James Beard