After a period of broad consensus, there’s been a few divergences in the polls. Are we seeing real movement between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, or just some normal fluctuations between random surveys? We try to make sense of some of the numbers.Plus, we discuss our projections (is Saskatchewan really in play?) and chat about how Carney and Poilievre did on the much-watched Radio-Canada program, Tout le monde en parle.Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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35:32
Believe the polls
At Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative rally in Brampton on Wednesday, some supporters wore sweaters and held banners asking a simple question: “do you believe the polls?”Yes. Yes, we do.On this episode of The Numbers, we break down what the polls are showing and explain why every indicator suggests not only that Mark Carney’s Liberals are leading, but that they are in a very good position to win a majority government.This election isn’t over, and in that sense having a healthy doubt about the polls is fine. And polls are never 100% accurate. But if anyone is thinking these polls are completely bogus snapshots of where things are today — well, we have some thoughts about that.Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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29:35
Mind the polling gap
Do we have a polling controversy on our hands? Maybe! Over the last few days, we’ve seen a few polls published that portray some starkly different public opinion environments. Are Mark Carney’s Liberals leading by double-digits, or are Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives keeping them to a close race? Or is it somewhere in between?On this episode of The Numbers, we try to make some sense of the diverging poll numbers. We also take a deep dive into some B.C. regional polling numbers and look at a pair of ridings that could be worth watching on election night. Does the NDP actually have a chance to win a second seat in Quebec?Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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33:19
Do the polls make sense?
While the consensus in the polls pretty clearly points to an advantage for Mark Carney’s Liberals over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, what should we make of those individual surveys that show the race to be far closer — perhaps even tied? And how should we interpret the polls that show the Liberals surging in regions they haven’t won in decades?In this episode of The Numbers, we try to make some sense of the numbers. We also look at some polls from Léger that have surprising regional breakdowns of support within Ontario and British Columbia.Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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35:22
Liberals enter uncharted territory
It’s clear enough that Mark Carney’s Liberals would be the favourites to win this election if it were held today. But as support for the party in parts of the country grows to levels not seen in decades, just where those Liberal seat gains will happen is tough to predict.On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss how the electoral map is shifting. We also chat about whether or not Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats can beat expectations and if there are any signs that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives can turn things around.Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodDid you miss our special episode on Saturday? Patreon members can listen to it here.https://www.patreon.com/posts/week-1-goes-to-125451769You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Éric Grenier and Philippe J. Fournier provide their unique perspective and analysis on federal and provincial politics across Canada. Become a Patron for full access to exclusive content! Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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