Nobody within Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative caucus has publicly broken ranks with the leader, but calls for a change at the top of the party were given voice last week by Dimitri Soudas, a top aide to former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper. Is it a sign that Poilievre’s leadership of the party is more fragile than was previously thought, or are Soudas’s criticisms those of a former Conservative who no longer represents today’s version of the party? And what do the numbers say about the strength of Poilievre’s leadership?This week on The Numbers, we discuss where things stand for Poilievre and the Conservatives. We also take a look at some more polling numbers on the Canada-U.S. relationship (and the Carney-Trump relationship). Plus, we have provincial polls out of Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, as well as some mayoral results in Calgary and Edmonton. How did the polls do in these two big cities?Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.This episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
--------
44:02
--------
44:02
Carney's delicate balancing act with Trump
The polls continue to show a narrow, but diminishing, advantage for Mark Carney’s Liberals. But the polls also show that Canadians hold some complicated, and at terms contradictory, views when it comes to the United States and the prime minister’s relationship with Donald Trump. It’s a delicate balancing act for Carney — one that could easily go badly for the Liberals if they risked (or were forced into) an election in the fall.The week on The Numbers, we talk about the federal polling landscape and what it shows about Canadians’ views on our relations with the United States. We also take one last look at the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election, as well as what the polls are showing ahead of next week’s mayoral elections in Calgary and Edmonton. Then, we close with a Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscriptionThis episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
--------
47:02
--------
47:02
Could a polarized electorate be the new normal?
For most of the four years between 2019 and 2023, the Liberals and Conservatives were deadlocked in the polls with each party hovering a little over 30%, give or take a few points. Then the bottom fell out for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. But are we entering into another phase of a deadlocked, polarized electorate — this time with Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives both stuck around 40%?This week on The Numbers, we discuss what could be the new normal. Plus, the NDP gets an interesting new entrant into its leadership race and the government announces a change to the budgeting schedule that could have some repercussions for the electoral calendar. In New Brunswick, the PCs hold one of their seats in a provincial byelection, while in Newfoundland and Labrador we’re only one week out election day. Where do things stand there? We also discuss some new polling numbers from Quebec and British Columbia, where David Eby seems to be benefiting from a divided (and infighting) opposition.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
--------
54:05
--------
54:05
Are Carney and Poilievre a boost or a drag on their parties?
Mark Carney seems to be more popular than his Liberals, while Pierre Poilievre seems to be less popular than his Conservatives. Are these numbers sustainable for either party leader — and what would it mean if these numbers held going into an election campaign? Plus, what to make of the NDP’s better polls as the party’s leadership campaign takes off?This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest in federal polling trends. We also chat about the ongoing (but still unpolled) campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador, some surprising polling numbers out of Alberta and some less surprising numbers out of municipal races in Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal and Quebec City (a well as in Ontario). Then, Philippe is back with a new edition of The Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
--------
45:56
--------
45:56
What's the leadership review magic number?
It’s been a tough time for party leaders. After Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie resigned following her 57% leadership review score, Marit Stiles of the Ontario NDP managed only a little better with 68%. Over in British Columbia, John Rustad of the Conservatives scored 70%. While Crombie couldn’t hold on, Stiles and Rustad plan to stick around. But what number is good enough to stay on as leader — and what number should Pierre Poilievre aim for in his upcoming leadership review to keep his job safe?This week on The Numbers, we chat about these leadership review results and what they mean. We also discuss new federal polling numbers and the opening moves of the NDP leadership race for contenders Avi Lewis and Heather McPherson. Plus, we break down some new provincial survey results out of Quebec, Manitoba and Nova Scotia. Then, Philippe boosts the difficulty level in this week’s edition of The Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.This episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Éric Grenier and Philippe J. Fournier provide their unique perspective and analysis on federal and provincial politics across Canada. Become a Patron for full access to exclusive content! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Canada - english