The Numbers

After tackling the year in federal politics to come, we now turn our attentions to the provincial scenes.In this second part of our Over/Under Contest, we set our lines for the Quebec election in October. We also make our predictions for potential other provincial elections, premier resignations, leadership race outcomes and where party leaders might end the year in the polls.Thanks for all of your support for the podcast throughout 2025 and we wish you all the best in 2026!Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodYou can watch this episode on YouTube.The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After the beating our predictions took in 2025, we’ve lifted ourselves up, dusted ourselves off and are once again ready to try to predict the political year to come.Yes, it’s time for our annual Over/Under Contest, the fifth year in a row that we go head-to-head to see who has the better crystal ball for 2026. What score will Pierre Poilievre get in his leadership review? When will Mark Carney’s polling numbers begin to drop — if at all? Will there be any more floor-crossers? And, of course, will there be an election in the year to come?We’re splitting up the 2026 Over/Under Contest into two parts. Today, we’re reviewing how we did in 2025 (badly) before we set our sights on the year ahead of us in federal politics. Next week, we’ll place our lines and make our predictions for the provincial political scene.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodYou can watch this episode on YouTube.The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

One year ago today, Chrystia Freeland resigned from Justin Trudeau’s cabinet and kicked off a series of events that led to the Liberals winning re-election under new leader Mark Carney in April’s federal election. Also one year ago today, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were enjoying a 20+ point lead in the polls. Now, the beleaguered Conservative leader has lost his second MP to the Liberals in little more than a month.It’s been quite a roller-coaster year.On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we discuss the defection of Markham–Unionville MP Michael Ma to the Liberals and what it means for Poilievre’s leadership of the Conservative Party. We also play a game of Election Draft, drafting what we think are the most likely unscheduled elections to take place in 2026.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! You can watch this episode on YouTube.The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After months of caucus departures, expulsions and internal party turmoil, John Rustad finally resigned as leader of the B.C. Conservatives last week. Could that shake-up in the Conservative Party have reverberations that’ll go far beyond the provincial political scene in Victoria?This week on The Numbers, we discuss what just happened in British Columbia and whether we might see any federal politicians run for the B.C. Conservative leadership — potentially opening up some fascinating byelections. We also chat about the latest federal polls say about Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre, as well as new numbers out of every province, including in Quebec where there has been a big swing in public opinion and in Prince Edward Island where last night’s byelection almost resulted in a flip.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! This episode is available on YouTube.The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Polls suggest that a majority of Canadians (including British Columbians), support building a new pipeline from Alberta to the north coast of B.C. But after the resignation of Steven Guilbeault, a key minister for the Liberals in Quebec, and indications that the party’s electoral base in B.C. and elsewhere has mixed views about a new pipeline, could Mark Carney’s voter coalition be cracking — or could it grow instead?This week on The Numbers, we dissect some new numbers on how Canadians view the possibility of a new pipeline and what they could mean for the fortunes of the Liberals. We also have some new polls concerning the federal scene and Quebec provincial politics to chat about.This Friday, don’t miss our 2026 Leader Resignation Draft episode. Join the Patreon to listen to it if you aren’t already a member!Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.