GD POLITICS

A note on our election-night plans: I’m teaming up with Silver Bulletin, The Argument and Slow Boring for a livestream and live blog at gdpolitics.com, starting at 5:30 p.m. Eastern. You’ll hear from many of your podcast favorites throughout the evening, including Nate Silver, Clare Malone, Nathaniel Rakich, Lakshya Jain and Lenny Bronner.
The livestream will be open to everyone; the live blog will be for paid subscribers. That’s where you’ll find all of Nate’s hottest NSFW takes! I’ll send subscribers a reminder email when we’re live on election night. We’ll also have a late-night podcast for paid subscribers once we have enough results to draw some conclusions. It’s an exciting week ahead!
Happy election eve! Pollsters are releasing their final surveys, the forecasts are hours away from being frozen, and tens of millions of Americans have already voted. We’re about to find out whether all the pre-election data we’ve pored over actually painted an accurate picture of the 2026 electorate.
On this final pre-election episode of GD POLITICS, Mary Radcliffe and Lenny Bronner join me to assess the last-minute polls, answer your remaining questions, and register our final takes before the results come in.
A central question: Are Democrats’ surprisingly strong numbers in red states evidence of an unusually favorable electorate, or a warning that pollsters are struggling to reach Republican voters? We discuss what survey response rates can tell us and why weighting polls by voters’ recollections of 2024 introduces its own complications.
We also examine why this election might produce an uneven map. Candidate quality, regional differences, and shifting coalitions could mean very different results in states experiencing the same national political environment.
Finally, we offer three perspectives on the story that might emerge: Lenny explores how modest polling misses among particular groups could reshape the Senate outcome. Mary focuses on regional shifts and their implications for 2028. And I consider how this election differs from 2022 and whether it might come to be seen through a lens of betrayal.
Hope you enjoy the episode, and we’ll see you on election night!


This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.com

A note on our election-night plans: I’m teaming up with Silver Bulletin, The Argument and Slow Boring for a livestream and live blog at gdpolitics.com, starting at 5:30 p.m. Eastern. You’ll hear from many of your podcast favorites throughout the evening, including Nate Silver, Clare Malone, Nathaniel Rakich, Lakshya Jain and Lenny Bronner.
The livestream will be open to everyone; the live blog will be for paid subscribers. That’s where you’ll find all of Nate’s hottest NSFW takes! I’ll send subscribers a reminder email when we’re live on election night. We’ll also have a late-night podcast for paid subscribers once we have enough results to draw some conclusions. It’s an exciting week ahead!
The full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player here.
We’re just three days out from Election Day, and we’ve got another weekend bonus episode for you. When it rains, it pours, my friends.
Today, Nathaniel Rakich joins me for an hour-by-hour guide to Tuesday evening, from the first polls closing in Indiana and Kentucky to the long wait for Alaska. Which races will tell us whether we’re watching a blue tsunami or more of a ripple? How quickly does each state count its votes? And when will we know who won?
Florida could give us our first substantial answers. It counts quickly and has enough competitive House races to tell us something about the breadth of a Democratic wave. Texas and Kansas should also report relatively quickly, giving us a look at two of Democrats’ biggest Senate targets. Michigan and Maine will require more patience.
Nathaniel and I debate how early we’ll be able to tell who won the House. I’m inclined to stick my neck out; he brings his wet blanket (yes, I’m editorializing). The Senate could keep us waiting a week or more if control depends on Maine or Alaska. If either party secures a majority without those seats, we could know much sooner.
So sit back, enjoy your morning coffee in bed, and get ready for Tuesday. As Nathaniel puts it: “Get in. We’re going electioning.”

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.com

Are you excited for Election Day? Well, get even more excited, because GD POLITICS is teaming up with Silver Bulletin and The Argument to bring you live election night coverage starting at 5:30 p.m. ET. There will be numbers, maps and probably an upset or two. Mark your calendars and join at gdpolitics.com!
The full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player here.
We’re five days out, and the national environment looks rough for Republicans. The generic ballot sits at around D+9, and forecasters broadly agree that Democrats will take the House. The Senate is where the real argument lives, so that’s what I wanted to dig into on today’s episode with two pollsters who read the same data a little differently.
Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights, sees the race for the Senate as a coin flip, with Texas as the potentially decisive pickup. His caution comes from the map and the track record: The median Senate battleground voted for Trump by about 12 points, and polling misses have clustered in red states and the Midwest, including Ohio and Iowa.
Lakshya Jain of Split Ticket and The Argument puts the median outcome at Democrats winning 52 Senate seats. His case: In a D+9 environment, Ohio plays like an even state, and Sherrod Brown and James Talarico tend to run ahead of the generic ballot.
Both expect Democrats’ biggest gains to come among Hispanic and Black voters, which favors the Sun Belt over the Midwest and prairie states. But both are skeptical of the late buzz about Mississippi and South Carolina.
We also get into what the early vote can actually tell us and whether this election is a test of the GOP’s multiracial working-class coalition. Patrick, who wrote the book on it, says a 70–30 Democratic split among Hispanic voters would put his thesis in trouble. And we talk about why religion may be an underrated dividing line in American politics.
Plus, each names a race where the consensus is most wrong, and we take a listener question on why rural voters are still so hard to poll.

Are you excited for Election Day? Well, get even more excited, because GD POLITICS is teaming up with Silver Bulletin and The Argument to bring you live election night coverage starting at 5:30 p.m. ET. There will be numbers, maps and probably an upset or two. Mark your calendars and join at gdpolitics.com!
Earlier this year, while traveling in Ireland, I joined Hugh Linehan of The Irish Times for a crossover podcast comparing politics on either side of the Atlantic. With the midterms approaching, Hugh invited me back to Inside Politics to discuss the battle for Congress. I’m sharing that conversation as a bonus episode in the feed this week.
We covered plenty of ground. Hugh asked me how such a polarized country could potentially produce as large an electoral swing as the polls are showing. We talked about how the midterm and presidential electorates differ and which voters are likeliest to change their minds or sit out.
We also looked ahead: What will both parties learn from these elections? The temptation to read the midterms as a roadmap to the presidency is powerful. The historical relationship between midterm results and the next presidential election, though, looks less like a trend line than a Jackson Pollock painting.
Hope you enjoy the change of pace on today’s episode!



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe

We’re a week out from Election Day, nearly 30 million Americans have already voted, and Democrats are favored to win both chambers of Congress. But how far into Republican territory could a good night take them?
We’ve dedicated episodes to Georgia, Texas and Alaska this cycle. So I asked folks in the paid subscriber chat which states they most wanted to hear about before November 3. The overwhelming preference was the prairie states: Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska. The Midwest came next, followed by requests for the reach states of Mississippi, Montana, Minnesota and South Carolina.
Sadly, we don’t have time for an episode on every state. Don’t you wish election season could go on forever? No? Me neither.
Instead, I’m joined by Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report, to cover all the races you asked about in one episode.
We start with the prairie states, where economic frustration and candidates who have distanced themselves from the Democratic Party are testing the limits of Republican loyalty. Can Rob Sand’s blend of faith, fiscal restraint and criticism of both parties win over Trump voters in Iowa? And can Adam Hamilton’s centrism in Kansas and Dan Osborn’s independent bid in Nebraska do the same?
Then we head to Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin to explore why the same national environment can produce very different races. We also consider where an upset is most plausible among the reach states and why Jessica is watching South Carolina.
Along the way, we discuss what early voting can actually tell us, whether split-ticket voting will hold up and what to make of Republicans spending money to defend states that once looked safe.


This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe