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Tavi Costa: Gold’s Revaluation – This Could Be History in the Making
Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa, Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital, to discuss the current state of gold, silver, mining stocks, and broader economic trends. Costa emphasizes that despite technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions in gold, the underlying macroeconomic factors point to continued strength in precious metals. He highlights the role of central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China, Russia, and Turkey, which have been significant buyers of gold. Costa argues that gold's revaluation is driven by global debt imbalances, de-globalization trends, and countries seeking to stabilize their monetary systems. He also explains how higher gold prices can increase the U.S. Treasury’s cash reserves, enabling buybacks of Treasuries without quantitative easing, which he believes will be a critical tool for managing debt. Costa is bullish on mining stocks, noting they are historically undervalued relative to U.S. equities and have outperformed over the past decade. He suggests that as global infrastructure needs grow and supply chains shift, mining companies will play a crucial role in meeting demand for essential commodities. Additionally, he points out the attractive valuations of silver, given its high gold-to-silver ratio, which he believes could lead to significant price appreciation. The discussion also touches on the U.S. dollar’s structural downtrend, driven by high debt levels and interest payment burdens, and how this impacts emerging markets positively. Costa predicts that lower yields on short-term Treasuries will benefit miners and other sectors. He concludes by advocating for increased exposure to energy stocks due to geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introductions0:38 - Technical Bear Signals?5:54 - Monetizing U.S. Assets11:08 - Gold Re-Valuation Chart15:00 - Tariffs & Fed Policy20:08 - Dollar Struct Downtrend26:10 - Mining Stock Value31:30 - A Correction Coming?35:33 - GS Ratio Imbalances40:09 - Gaining Metal Exposure43:43 - Education & Sentiment47:00 - Mkt. Rotation & Wrap Up Guest Links:X: https://x.com/tavicostaX: https://x.com/crescat_capitalWebsite: https://crescat.net Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.
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49:42
David Kranzler: This is the Start of a Healthy Long-Term Gold Bull Cycle
Tom welcomes back David Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics to the show. Dave discusses his perspectives on various risks that he sees in the current economic and geopolitical landscape. He expresses concerns about the growing federal debt load in the US and the potential implications of the dollar losing its status as the world's reserve currency. Kranzler also touches upon the geopolitical tensions between major powers like China, Russia, and the US, which he believes could lead to significant consequences for the global financial system if cooler heads don't prevail. On a more positive note, Kranzler emphasizes the potential opportunities in the mining sector, specifically gold and silver miners, as these metals continue to perform well during this economic climate. He highlights several companies that he believes have strong potential for growth. He shares his thoughts on the recent M&A activity in the mining industry and the implications of a potential shift towards a gold-backed currency monetary standard. Throughout the interview, Kranzler offers insights into his investment strategies, discussing the importance of due diligence and staying informed about economic and geopolitical developments while trying to enjoy life despite uncertain times. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:58 - Ignoring Current Risks4:32 - U.S. Debt & DOGE7:10 - Trump & China Clash9:50 - Trillion Defense Budget12:08 - Global Dollar Trends14:58 - China T-Bill Holdings17:17 - Trust & Gold Holdings19:13 - Counterparty Risk24:35 - C.B. Secrecy27:56 - Gold Price & GSR31:00 - China Industry & Silver35:43 - Bank Reports & Gold39:12 - Thoughts on Bessent43:53 - A U.S. CBDC Coming?47:28 - Gold & Producers57:14 - Mergers & Acquisitions1:02:15 - Gold/Miner Downside?1:08:04 - Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:Substack: https://miningstockjournal.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/InvResDynamicsWebsite: https://investmentresearchdynamics.comNewsletter: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/mining-stock-journal David Kranzler spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, he traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. Dave earned a master's degree in business administration from the University of Chicago, concentrating on accounting and finance. He writes a blog to help people understand and analyze what is going on in our financial system and economy.
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1:11:48
Peter Goodburn: The Rise and Fall of King Dollar
Tom welcomes back Peter Goodburn from WaveTrack International to discuss his analysis of the financial markets. Goodburn's focus is on Elliott Wave analysis and he believes that the current market environment can be understood as a binary relation to tariffs. If tariffs continue, stock markets will decline, and gold prices will rise. Conversely, if negotiations cool off, the stock market may recover, but gold prices may experience profit-taking sell-offs. Goodburn also shared his perspective on interest rates, suggesting that Treasury yields are heading lower due to the perception of increasing inflation risks. He believes this decrease in yields indicates that a US downturn is likely, although he did not specify a timeframe for when this may occur. The interview also touched upon copper prices, with Goodburn noting that China's position on strategic metals could impact their availability and pricing going forward. As the conversation concludes, Goodburn emphasized the importance of following price levels and wave patterns instead of being overly reliant on news flow to make trading decisions. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Analysis of the Markets3:27 - S&P Charts & Sentiment10:37 - Nasdaq Outlook13:04 - Blow-Off Technicals17:42 - Global Capital Rotation24:54 - Global Market Surveys25:37 - Dr. Copper & Tariffs31:38 - China & Rare Earths34:26 - Gold's Strength & Inflows38:12 - Gold Pullback Coming?44:47 - US Dollar Thoughts48:30 - Jerome Powell & Rates51:13 - Weak Canadian Peso54:55 - Treasuries & Yield Spikes59:22 - Tariffs & Inflation1:04:50 - Crude Oil Prices1:09:06 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/ElliottWave_WTIWebsite: https://wavetrack.com Peter Goodburn is the founding partner of WaveTrack International. His trading experience spans back to the late 1970s working then in the commodities business for exchange members and their clients. In those earlier years of his career, he created the first OTC (over-the-counter) copper option product based upon the Comex (New York) contract around the mid-eighties, and in the same period, devised Opval, an option-evaluation software program that is currently used in many of the major market-making institutions of today. His fascination with price activity and how that related to the news flow within the markets captured his imagination early on. Peter's first annual diary of 1978 records his notes and remarks on how the interaction and relationship of fundamental news and price movement often contradicted themselves. Some years later, this was to ignite his interest in causal theory and naturally, the Elliott Wave Principle. He was first introduced to the Elliott Wave Principle in the mid-eighties listening to daily updates of financial commentary by Bob Beckman on LBC radio (London Broadcasting Company). This led him to the work of Frost/Prechter and their first re-publication of R.N.Elliott's (1871-1948) original treatise of 1938 (The Wave Principle) and 1946 (Nature’s Law – The Secret of the Universe), entitled "the Elliott Wave Principle" (1978). Peter’s a self-proclaimed purist of the Wave Principle but has developed a unique approach of geometric Ratio & Proportion that is instrumental in maintaining a dispassionate and objective view of the market. He has applied this analysis to every major asset class over the years, stocks, bonds, currencies & commodities, and promotes the importance of interdependency of the combined group. Peter has been a member of the U.K.’s Society of Technical Analysts (STA) for over twenty-five years and is a Certified Financial Technician recognized by the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA). He has taught the Elliott Wave Principle to students at the London School of Economics as part of the STA’s diploma program and is a member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and the Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology and Life Sciences.
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1:11:42
Jaime Carrasco: The Biggest Opportunity For Any Investor Right Now
In this episode on Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Jaime Carrasco. Jaime is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. Jaime discusses the current economic landscape and the implications for investors. Carrasco emphasizes the importance of understanding the paradigm shift in the monetary system, particularly the role of gold and silver as sound money. Carrasco highlights that the global economy is facing a debt bubble, where each additional dollar of debt fails to stimulate growth, leading instead to social instability. He argues that this situation is similar to what Latin America experienced, with the US now reaching a critical point. Carrasco believes that the current fiat system is imploding, and gold will play a central role in the upcoming reset of the monetary system. He discusses the rise of gold prices across major currencies, noting that this reflects the decline in purchasing power of fiat currencies rather than an increase in gold's intrinsic value. Carrasco warns against complacency among financial advisors who fail to recognize these systemic changes and advises investors to allocate a significant portion of their portfolios to precious metals, particularly through well-managed mining companies. Carrasco also delves into the role of silver, emphasizing its structural deficit in production relative to demand, especially given the shift toward green energy. He suggests that silver's price will rise significantly as the global economy transitions, offering investors substantial opportunities. The interview touches on geopolitical dynamics, including China's strategic accumulation of gold and its influence on the global monetary system. Carrasco warns against trusting central banks and advocates for individual investors to establish their own "gold standards" to protect wealth. Finally, Carrasco advises investors to focus on stockpicking within the precious metals sector, emphasizing high-quality producers with strong management and leverage to rising metal prices. He encourages a long-term perspective, positioning oneself to benefit from the coming paradigm shift rather than trying to predict short-term price movements. Talking Points From This Episode0:00 - Introduction2:10 - Changing Roles4:30 - Currencies Vs. Gold9:14 - Trump & Debt Bubble15:40 - Tariffs & Positioning23:50 - Silver Opportunity26:20 - Silver Supply Deficit30:15 - M&A Activity Strategy34:08 - Gold & Leverage37:11 - Mkt. Volatility Causes39:08 - A Quiet Fed & Inflation45:42 - Lower Dollar US/China48:42 - When to Sell Gold?57:05 - Concluding Thoughts59:00 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/ijcarrascoLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/Website: https://www.harbourfrontwealth.comE-Mail: [email protected] Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch. Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies. Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment stra...
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1:00:40
Michael Pento: Markets are Collapsing and Recession is Here – Gold is the Answer
Tom welcomes back Michael Pento, from Pento Portfolio Strategies. The discussion revolves around the current economic landscape, highlighting the Federal Reserve's challenges in balancing inflation control and recession fears. Pento argues that the Fed is constrained by a "Gordian knot" of conflicting mandates, emphasizing its focus on bailing out banks and managing government debt rather than addressing inflation effectively. He critiques the dual mandate of stable prices and full employment, suggesting that employment rates have little bearing on inflation, which stems from fiat currency devaluation. Pento also delves into the impact of tariffs, particularly those imposed by former President Trump, noting their role in exacerbating economic instability. While he acknowledges the intent behind these measures—to rebuild the middle class and reduce trade deficits—the lack of clear planning and frequent changes create uncertainty for businesses. This unpredictability complicates financial decision-making, especially for manufacturers considering relocating production. Pento advocates for a model that considers credit spreads, real interest rates, and financial conditions. He warns against passive investing in market-cap weighted indices like the S&P 500, which concentrates capital in overvalued stocks and amplifies market volatility. Instead, he recommends an active approach, emphasizing short-term bonds, gold, and selective equity exposure. Pento also discusses the role of gold as a hedge against inflation and economic instability, distinguishing between physical gold (held personally) and liquid paper gold (ETFs and mining stocks). He advises investors to allocate 5% of their net worth to physical gold for safety, with additional exposure to liquid gold based on market conditions. Finally, Pento addresses the potential for geopolitical conflicts, such as tensions with China, to drive demand for gold. He concludes by highlighting the importance of an active investment model in navigating economic uncertainty, emphasizing that investors cannot rely solely on passive strategies or the hope of market recovery. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:32 - Fed & Economic Numbers2:52 - Tariff & Uncertainties8:02 - Crash & Fed Reactions11:12 - Yields Spiking Meaning14:32 - Demand Into Gold19:38 - Reserves & Rev. Repos21:53 - Uncertainty & Massive Q.E.26:12 - Passive Investments?32:28 - Gold & Rumors of War34:35 - Mining/Gold Investments39:30 - Institutional Interest41:50 - Thoughts on Silver42:30 - 2025 is Exhausting43:26 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: http://pentoport.comE-Mail: [email protected]: https://twitter.com/michaelpento Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with more than 30 years of professional investment experience. He worked on the floor of the NYSE during the mid-90s. Pento served as an economist for both Delta Global and EuroPacific Capital. He was also the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios, which were distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network.
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44:23