How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming
Lately we've noticed that something we think about all the time here at Planet Money is having a viral moment: recession indicators!From the more practical (like sales for lipstick going up and men's underwear going down) to the absurd and nonsensical (like babysitter buns coming back into style?) — people are posting to social media every little sign they see that a recession is coming. And we LOVE it. Because between the trade war and the tariffs and the stock market, there has been a lot of economic uncertainty over the last few months and we want to talk about it, too.Today on the show — we dig into the slightly wonkier indicators that economists look at when they're trying to answer the question behind the viral internet trend: Is a recession coming?This episode of Planet Money was produced by James Sneed. It was edited by Marianne McCune, fact-checked by Sarah McClure, and engineered by Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.Find more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Music: Source Audio - "The Shirt Still Fits," "Chameleon Panther Style," and "Nighthawk."Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
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23:33
The 145% tariff already did its damage
Even though the 145% tariff on Chinese imports only lasted a month, it already inflicted its scars on the economy. Global trade is just not something you can turn off and on like that. Some companies got really unlucky. Like those whose goods arrived at U.S. ports before the pause. If a medium size company had a million dollars worth of goods imported, they had to pay an extra million and a half dollars on top of that – just for the tariff. Today we are bringing you a portrait of this unfathomably high tariff. What a month of 145% tariffs looked like and felt like for three people in the global economy whose lives were all affected and still will be. The ones who got lucky and the ones who got really unlucky. This episode of Planet Money was produced by Emma Peaslee and edited by Jess Jiang. It was engineered by Jimmy Keeley and fact-checked by Willa Rubin. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer. Check out the live cargo map here. Find more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter. Listen free at these links: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts. Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney. Music: NPR Source Audio - "Bass Talks," "Bassline Motion," and "What Da Funk"Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
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26:53
What happened to U.S. farmers during the last trade war
The U.S. exports billions of dollars worth of agricultural products each year — things like soybeans, corn and pork. And over the last month, these exports have been caught up in a trade war. U.S. farmers have been collateral damage in a trade war before. In 2018, President Trump put tariffs on a bunch of Chinese products including flatscreen TVs, medical devices and batteries. But China matched those tariffs with their own retaliatory tariffs. They put tariffs on a lot of U.S. agricultural products they'd been buying, like soybeans, sorghum, and livestock. That choice looked strategic. Hitting these products with tariffs hurt Trump's voter base and might help China in a negotiation. And in some cases, China could find affordable alternative options from other countries.Today on the show: what happened in 2018, how the government prevented some U.S. farms from going bankrupt, and what was lost even after the trade war ended.This episode was produced by Sylvie Douglis and edited by Jess Jiang. It was engineered by Robert Rodriguez and fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer. Find more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.Listen free at these links: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
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25:30
Is the reign of the dollar over?
For decades, dollars have been the world's common financial language. Central banks everywhere hold dollars as a way to safely store their wealth. Countries, businesses, and people use it to trade; around 90% of all foreign exchange transactions involve dollars. It's the world's money, the world's "reserve currency."But what if that is changing? What if the world stops seeing the dollar as safe? Today on the show, what is a "reserve currency"? Why is it the dollar? And if the dollar falls from favor, what will replace it?This episode of Planet Money was produced by Emma Peaslee with help from James Sneed. It was edited by Marianne McCune with fact checking help from Sierra Juarez. It was engineered by Kwesi Lee. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer. The Dollar Trap by Eswar PrasadExorbitant Privilege by Barry EichengreenOur Dollar. Your Problem by Ken RogoffFind more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.Listen free at these links: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Music: NPR Source Audio - "Virtual Machine," "Fake Blood" and "Successful Secrets"Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
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26:14
What "Made in China" actually means
Virtually every product brought into the United States must have a so-called "country of origin." Think of it as the official place it comes from. And this is the country that counts for calculating tariffs.But what does it really mean when something is a "Product of China"? How much of it actually comes from China? And how do customs officials draw the line?Here in the U.S., the rules are delightfully counterintuitive. A product's country of origin is not necessarily where that product got on the container ship to come here. It's not necessarily where most of its ingredients are from or even where most of the manufacturing happened.Our system is much stranger. The answers can be surprisingly philosophical — and at times, even poetic.This episode of Planet Money was produced by James Sneed with help from Sylvie Douglis. It was edited by Jess Jiang, fact-checked by Sierra Juarez, and engineered by Kwesi Lee. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.Find more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.Listen free at these links: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
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