School of War

General Michael Claesson is Sweden’s Chief of Defence Staff and Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces. How did Russia’s annexation of Crimea change Sweden’s global strategy? Is Russia weaker than it appears? How strong is the American alliance with Europe? With the tectonic plates of war shifting beneath our feet, the stakes are high and the future of NATO hangs in the balance.

Times:

02:46 Swedish view of the world

04:19 Crimea annexation

08:50 Geopolitical logic of joining NATO

10:10 Military background

13:48 The war in Ukraine

17:53 Lessons from the American Civil War

19:40 Drone combat

25:09 Command versus autonomy

27:09 European defense against Russia

33:14 Contested Kaliningrad

36:00 Russia’s vulnerabilities

37:19 Russia’s greyzone warfare

41:11 Europe’s role in global security

44:26 American and European alliance

45:00 The case for NATO

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Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of FDD, joins Aaron to discuss the ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. What are the fears surrounding the  talks? Where are the two sides close on the proposed ceasefire, and where are they miles apart? What should we look for to indicate how the talks are going? Looming over everything is the question of whether the negotiating table can, at times, be more dangerous than the battlefield.

Times:

02:03 Nature of the ceasefire

04:22 Do we have the upper hand?

08:04 Trump vs. Iranian trap

09:31 Iran’s fragile position

11:49 Broader American strategy

14:59 Negotiation demands

18:57 Lebanon factor

22:48 Who is Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf?

27:45 J.D. Vance’s analogy

30:44 Strait of Hormuz

33:03 Recession fears

36:29 Hormuz circumvention

38:05 Battle for Hormuz

39:00 Global chokepoint lessons

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Sal Mercogliano, professor of history at Campbell University and host of the  What’s Going on with Shipping YouTube channel, joins us to discuss the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the complexities of navigating the Strait under normal and elevated circumstances. The conversation delves into the geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the impact on global shipping, and the broader implications for international trade and security. What are the challenges posed by the current conflict, the role of insurance in maritime operations, and the potential long-term effects on global trade?

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Times

02:45 A regular day

07:51 Shipping lanes

11:48 In the Persian Gulf

19:13 What is actually happening?

27:00 Opening the Strait 

32:30 Strategic costs 

38:05 Keeping things moving

44:58 Breakdown of the Freedom of the Seas

48:32 Ghost fleets

53:13 Other chokepoints

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Rich Goldberg, senior advisor at FDD, and Garrett Exner, adjunct fellow at Hudson Institute, join the show to breakdown the dramatic events of the weekend and take a look at the road ahead in the Iran War. We discuss the American F-15E shot down in Iran, and the subsequent rescue of its crew by special operations forces near Isfahan. The conversation delves into the details of the rescue operation, President Trump's demands regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential actions the United States might take if Iran does not comply. 

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Times

03:00 Rescue

12:47 Potential nuclear raid sites

15:28 President’s deal terms

26:50 Targets and regime change

35:32 Ground options

38:28 Information gaps and what comes next

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The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iran’s nuclear program survives. And while the regime has been weakened, it remains intact. So what has President Trump accomplished—and what comes next in the war? Today on School of War, we’re doing something a little different. Instead of sitting in the interviewer’s chair, as I usually do – I’m the one being interviewed. I joined Rafaela Siewert of The Free Press to talk through my current thinking on the war in Iran.

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Times

02:03 Trump’s speech  

05:22 Escalation      

10:10 Goals 

12:25 Risk and scale

15:15 Kinds of surprise

17:37 Misreading the Iranians 

22:10 15 Points

25:49 Opening the Strait of Hormuz 

29:24 Branding 

32:44 Oil 

37:15 Kharg Island

41:35 Regime alteration  

44:20 Time and resources

48:49 Balance

50:11 Trump, MAGA, and the Right

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