School of War

Sal Mercogliano, associate professor of history at Campbell University and host of the  What’s Going on with Shipping YouTube channel, joins us to discuss the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the complexities of navigating the Strait under normal and elevated circumstances. The conversation delves into the geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the impact on global shipping, and the broader implications for international trade and security. What are the challenges posed by the current conflict, the role of insurance in maritime operations, and the potential long-term effects on global trade?

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Times

02:45 A regular day

07:51 Shipping lanes

11:48 In the Persian Gulf

19:13 What is actually happening?

27:00 Opening the Strait 

32:30 Strategic costs 

38:05 Keeping things moving

44:58 Breakdown of the Freedom of the Seas

48:32 Ghost fleets

53:13 Other chokepoints

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Rich Goldberg, senior advisor at FDD, and Garrett Exner, adjunct fellow at Hudson Institute, join the show to breakdown the dramatic events of the weekend and take a look at the road ahead in the Iran War. We discuss the American F-15E shot down in Iran, and the subsequent rescue of its crew by special operations forces near Isfahan. The conversation delves into the details of the rescue operation, President Trump's demands regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential actions the United States might take if Iran does not comply. 

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Times

03:00 Rescue

12:47 Potential nuclear raid sites

15:28 President’s deal terms

26:50 Targets and regime change

35:32 Ground options

38:28 Information gaps and what comes next

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The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iran’s nuclear program survives. And while the regime has been weakened, it remains intact. So what has President Trump accomplished—and what comes next in the war? Today on School of War, we’re doing something a little different. Instead of sitting in the interviewer’s chair, as I usually do – I’m the one being interviewed. I joined Rafaela Siewert of The Free Press to talk through my current thinking on the war in Iran.

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Times

02:03 Trump’s speech  

05:22 Escalation      

10:10 Goals 

12:25 Risk and scale

15:15 Kinds of surprise

17:37 Misreading the Iranians 

22:10 15 Points

25:49 Opening the Strait of Hormuz 

29:24 Branding 

32:44 Oil 

37:15 Kharg Island

41:35 Regime alteration  

44:20 Time and resources

48:49 Balance

50:11 Trump, MAGA, and the Right

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Eyck Freymann, Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, joins the show to explain the complexities of deterrence against China, the strategic challenges in the Indo-Pacific, and the implications of the wars in Ukraine and Iran for Taiwan. We break down China’s plausible gray-zone tactics like quarantine and coercive mobilization, and how these tools, if unchecked, could lead to a total economic or military break. Where are the vulnerabilities in the U.S. defense industrial base, in naval and trade logistics, and in missile magazine depth?

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Times

01:45 No path out  

04:13 Maintaining balance     

10:18 Kasserine lessons

16:51 China’s possible moves in the gray-zone

22:53 More stockpiling 

27:33 Invasion

34:21 Decapitation and bombardment 

39:20 An economic and political problem 

46:42 The Summit

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John Spencer, Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point and host of the Urban Warfare Project podcast, joins the show to break down how the U.S. and Israel are executing a 'neurological' campaign—using precision, targeted strikes on the Iranian Regime and its center of gravity. A strategy that’s as old as Clausewitz but more relevant than ever. How are the U.S. and Israel balancing the psychological impact of their precision strikes in tandem with the more traditional threat of brute force? What might this approach reveal about today’s conflicts, and how might it influence the next global showdown? 

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Times

03:25 Targeting as strategy  

10:40 Neurological strike     

20:16 An evolution in military affairs

26:30 Adaptation 

30:48 Center of gravity

39:37 The missile program

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