PodcastsGovernmentThe Cognitive Crucible

The Cognitive Crucible

Information Professionals Association
The Cognitive Crucible
Latest episode

250 episodes

  • The Cognitive Crucible

    #244 Sean Guillory on Betting Intelligence and National Security

    2026-03-03 | 43 mins.
    The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association.
    During this episode, Sean Guillory discusses the rapid ascent of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi which are transforming global events into tradable assets.
    Recording Date: 23 Feb 2026
    Research Question: Sean Guillory suggests an interested student or researcher examine: 
    How appropriators fund research in this space
    Study feedback loops
    Incentive-based forecasting
    Political promises market
    Betting Reviewed vs. Peer Reviewed science
    Resources:
    Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #65 Sean Guillory on Cognitive Neuroscience Applications

    BetBreakingNews Website
    BetBreakingNews substack
    Proposal: Betting Reviewed vs. Peer Reviewed
    Link to full show notes and resources
    Guest Bio: Dr. Sean Guillory is a nationally recognized expert in cognitive warfare, influence operations, and behavioral strategy. With over a decade of experience supporting U.S. defense and intelligence agencies, Sean specializes in understanding and shaping human decision-making at scale within the world's most contested information environments.
    A Dartmouth-trained Ph.D. cognitive neuroscientist, Sean pioneers cutting-edge tools for non-kinetic warfare at the volatile intersection of neuroscience, psychology, and national defense. His career has evolved from mapping brain functions in neurosurgery patients to prototyping behavioral tools for federal agencies. Today, he advises clients on how prediction markets are reshaping geopolitical security and how to navigate the emerging risks in these digital environments.
    Sean is the Co-founder and CEO of BetBreakingNews, which leverages prediction market intelligence to drive actionable decisions for corporate and national security clients. He is also the co-host of the MAD Warfare podcast, where he explores the nuances of unconventional conflict. Additionally, Sean serves on the boards of the Information Professionals Association and the Mind Science Foundation's Science Committee, fostering the research and practical applications necessary to protect the modern cognitive landscape.
    About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain.
    For more information, please contact us at [email protected].
    Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.
    Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.
  • The Cognitive Crucible

    #241 Andy Whiskeyman on Cognitive Intelligence

    2026-03-03 | 1h 26 mins.
    The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association.
    During this episode, Andrew Whiskeyman discusses his co-authored article: The Emergence of Cognitive Intelligence (COGINT) as a New Military Intelligence Collection Discipline. "COGINT" is the systematic mapping, safeguarding, and operational exploitation of decision-making architectures in the contemporary cognitive battle space. Topics include: understanding and protecting human decision-making processes from adversarial tactics, adversarial exploitation of technology and societal divisions to manipulate public opinion, and underscoring the vital need for critical thinking.
    Recording Date: 22 January 2026
    Research Question: Andrew Whiskeyman suggests an interested student or researcher examine:
    When is a conspiracy theory no longer a theory?
    How does one build a culture of civil discourse and disagreement?
    Of mobs and men: how does individual behavior and decision relate to group dynamics?
    AI and human trust/decision dynamics.
    Resources:
    Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #62 Jonathan Rauch on the Constitution of Knowledge
    #119 Katherine Carman on Truth Decay
    #153 Andy Whiskeyman and Mike Berger on the Importance of Dedicated Resources

    The Emergence of Cognitive Intelligence (COGINT) as a New Military Intelligence Collection Discipline by Jorge Conde and Andy Whiskeyman
    S. Rept. 119-39 - National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2026 dated 15 July 2025
    Salt Typhoon
    The Everlasting Man: A Guide to G.K. Chesterton's Masterpiece by Dale Ahlquist
    Aristotle's Rhetoric
    The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Thomas Kuhn
    Warhead: How the brain shapes war and war shapes the brain by Nicholas Wright
    Link to full show notes and resources
    Guest Bio: 
    Dr. Andrew Whiskeyman, COL (ret.), is the co-founder and CEO of JASSA Professional Services, which provides consulting and subject matter expertise on strategy, technology, predictive analysis, and people. He also teaches, writes, researches, and lectures internationally on the topics of information warfare, cognitive security, emerging technology, and strategic foresight.
    He is a Goodpaster Scholar, a non-resident senior fellow with the Global National Security Institute (GNSI) and former board member of the Information Professionals Association (IPA). Dr. Whiskeyman adjuncts with Catholic Polytechnic University, Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, and the US Air Force's Air War College.
    He is a former Chair of the Cyber Strategy Department at the National Defense University's College of Information and Cyberspace (CIC) where he taught and researched on the nexus of information and national security. He previously served for 28 years in the US Army and deployed multiple times in support of combat operations.
    His final military assignment was as the Chief of the Information Operations Division (J39) within the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Operations Directorate J3 located at Macdill AFB, Florida. His previous assignment was as the Chief of Strategy for the CENTCOM Joint Cyber Center (JCC).  His first assignment was to Misawa AB, Japan as an enlisted military intelligence Soldier. He then went to officer candidate school (OCS) and commissioned into the basic branch of Air Defense Artillery. In 2007, he transitioned to the Information Operations functional area (FA30).
    He has deployed five times: Kosovo (KFOR 3B - 2001/02), Afghanistan (3 times - 2004, 2006/07, and 2012/13), and Iraq (2008/09). He also has numerous shorter trips into the Middle East theater of operations including return trips to Iraq and Afghanistan.
    He is a graduate (and plank owner) of the Marine Corps Expeditionary Warfare School (EWS - 2004), Air Command and Staff College (ACSC 2011 in residence), and the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies (SAASS XXI - 2012). He is the first Soldier with the Advanced Strategic Planning and Policy Program (ASP3) to earn his PhD (Military Strategy, Air University 2015). He is the recipient of multiple military awards including the Defense Superior Service Medal and the Bronze Star, and he was awarded France's Chevalier de L'Ordre du National Mérite.
    He is also active in the Tampa Bay community. He is the founder of the local Tampa Bay GK Chesterton Society, leads an Exodus 90 fraternity, served as a past Grand Knight for the Servant of God Vincent Capodanno Council 14495 (Knights of Columbus), created and teaches two Apologetics Courses for Homeschool students, and is a mentor with the Tepeyac Leadership Institute.
    He is married (over 30 years) with four children, two grandchildren, two dogs, and a turtle.
    About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain.
    For more information, please contact us at [email protected].
    Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.
    Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.
  • The Cognitive Crucible

    #243 Doug Abdiel on the New Fog of War–Navigating Through GPS-Denied and Degraded Environments

    2026-03-03 | 1h 4 mins.
    The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association.
    During this episode, Doug Abdiel discusses the vivid operational problem of GPS-denied or GPS-degraded environments and how Advanced Navigation is helping operators cut through the fog of modern warfare.
    Recording Date: 16 Feb 2026
    Research Question: Doug Abdiel suggests an interested student or researcher examine the computationally challenging problem of peer-to-peer solutions for signals.
    Resources:
    Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #237 Josh Segal on Ukraine, Electronic Warfare, and Fast Battlefield Innovation

    Advanced Navigation
    P&G Purpose: We believe that every person deserves a chance to obtain long-term, sustainable employment for themselves and their families. For some people, this has never been a problem. For others, through circumstances outside of their control, be it war, famine, or countless other issues, they have never been able to have this sustainable employment. We aim to bridge that gap, helping those people obtain the job skills that they need to succeed.
    Global Navigation Satellite Systems, Inertial Navigation, and Integration by Mohinder S. Grewal, Angus P. Andrews, and Chris G. Bartone
    Battlefield Cellphone Usage
    Cigarette Lighter Airport Jammer
    Link to full show notes and resources
    Guest Bio: Doug Abdiel is Global VP Customer Experience and Support at Advanced Navigation, a global leader in autonomous systems and navigation technology.
    In addition to being a Navigator, Doug is a U.S. Marine, and has served on active duty and in the reserves, where he is currently a Lieutenant Colonel, since 2003.
    Doug is an experienced leader with a record of driving change in the internet, defence, and social sectors for the past two decades. He has practiced in competitive intelligence, strategic/operational planning, and partnership business development across the Asia-Pacific.
    Doug is recognized for high-double-digit YoY growth and concurrent cost reduction on eleven-figure P&Ls. He is a community-minded founder, director, and chair of a multimillion-dollar social enterprise that provided over 50 people their first, and most importantly a pathway to their second, jobs in Australia.
    Doug's opinions are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the US Department of War, Department of the Navy, or the US Marine Corps.
    About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain.
    For more information, please contact us at [email protected].
    Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.
    Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.
  • The Cognitive Crucible

    #242 Doug Wilbur on Propaganda

    2026-03-03 | 48 mins.
    The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association.
    During this episode, Doug Wilbur discussed propaganda, information warfare, and strategic optimism–emphasizing society's capability for problem-solving. He defined propaganda as any communication intended to influence behavior in the propagandist's favor, distinguishing it from persuasion. Wilbur concluded the Vietnamese were the most successful propagandists, effectively delegitimizing the South Vietnamese government as a US puppet, which made the 1968 Tet Offensive a psychological victory despite military defeat. He explained that communism relies on a messianic eschatology, promising a utopian future. Wilbur also addressed modern threats, noting that AI increases the vulnerability of open societies to personalized disinformation, compounding the challenge of combating propaganda due to people relying on fast-thinking heuristics.
    Recording Date: 6 Feb 2026
    Research Question: Doug Wilbur suggests an interested student or researcher examine what are the Chinese telling external audiences and what effect is it having?
    Resources:
    Blurring the Source: Information Laundering and the Cognitive Architecture of Modern Propaganda by Doug Wilbur
    Finding the Signal within the Noise: What Information Warriors Need to Know About Human Pattern Recognitionby Doug Wilbur
    Warfare of Position: When the Decisive Struggle Precedes the First Shot by Doug Wilbur
    Viet Cong: The Organization of the National Liberation Front of South Vietnam by Douglas Pike
    Link to full show notes and resources
    Guest Bio: Douglas S Wilbur, Ph.D. (University of Missouri, School of Journalism, 2019), is a communication scientist who specializes in propaganda, information warfare and strategic communication. He is also a retired U.S. Army Information Operations Officer with four deployments. He works full-time in the information technology industry but is an adjunct professor of Marketing at the University of Maryland Global Campus.
    About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain.
    For more information, please contact us at [email protected].
    Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.
    Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.
  • The Cognitive Crucible

    #243 Doug Abdiel on the New Fog of War–Navigating Through GPS-Denied and Degraded Environments

    2026-02-24 | 1h 4 mins.
    The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association.
    During this episode, Doug Abdiel discusses the vivid operational problem of GPS-denied or GPS-degraded environments and how Advanced Navigation is helping operators cut through the fog of modern warfare.
    Recording Date: 16 Feb 2026
    Research Question: Doug Abdiel suggests an interested student or researcher examine the computationally challenging problem of peer-to-peer solutions for signals.
    Resources:
    Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #237 Josh Segal on Ukraine, Electronic Warfare, and Fast Battlefield Innovation

    Advanced Navigation
    P&G Purpose: We believe that every person deserves a chance to obtain long-term, sustainable employment for themselves and their families. For some people, this has never been a problem. For others, through circumstances outside of their control, be it war, famine, or countless other issues, they have never been able to have this sustainable employment. We aim to bridge that gap, helping those people obtain the job skills that they need to succeed.
    Cigarette Lighter Airport Jammer
    Battlefield Cellphone Usage
    Global Navigation Satellite Systems, Inertial Navigation, and Integration by Mohinder S. Grewal, Angus P. Andrews, and Chris G. Bartone
    Link to full show notes and resources
    Guest Bio: Doug Abdiel is Global VP Customer Experience and Support at Advanced Navigation, a global leader in autonomous systems and navigation technology.
    In addition to being a Navigator, Doug is a U.S. Marine, and has served on active duty and in the reserves, where he is currently a Lieutenant Colonel, since 2003.
    Doug is an experienced leader with a record of driving change in the internet, defence, and social sectors for the past two decades. He has practiced in competitive intelligence, strategic/operational planning, and partnership business development across the Asia-Pacific.
    Doug is recognized for high-double-digit YoY growth and concurrent cost reduction on eleven-figure P&Ls. He is a community-minded founder, director, and chair of a multimillion-dollar social enterprise that provided over 50 people their first, and most importantly a pathway to their second, jobs in Australia.
    Doug's opinions are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the US Department of War, Department of the Navy, or the US Marine Corps.
    About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain.
    For more information, please contact us at [email protected].
    Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.
    Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

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About The Cognitive Crucible

The Cognitive Crucible explores all aspects of our generational challenge: Cognitive Security. It is the only podcast dedicated to increasing interdisciplinary collaboration between information operations practitioners, scholars, and policy makers. Join the discussion forum each week with the Cognitive Crucible host, John Bicknell. Have a question or would like to suggest a topic go to: https://information-professionals.org/podcasts/cognitive-crucible.
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