Canada's mortgage market hit a turning point in 2025, and in this episode of In-House, we dig into what the data is really telling us.
Host Joelle Hamilton sits down with Aled ab Iorwerth, CMHC Deputy Chief Economist, to break down the Spring 2026 Residential Mortgage Industry Report (RMIR). They cover what drove the biggest renewal wave in recent memory, why borrowers are shifting back to variable rates, and what signals — good and concerning — are shaping the outlook for the rest of 2026.
What you'll hear in this episode:
• The renewal wave peaked in 2025 as pandemic era buyers mortgages expired. Why 2026 should be calmer — and where payment pressure still lingers.
• Why 42% of new mortgages are now variable-rate — and what it means if rates change.
• While still historically low nationally, delinquencies in Ontario and Toronto have increased year-over-year (35% and 45%), a trend worth watching.
• The stress hiding beneath the headline numbers — how unemployment and non-mortgage delinquencies signal what's coming before it hits mortgage arrears.
• What structural signals offer cautious optimism: amortizations normalizing, HELOC performance holding steady, and TDS ratios improving.
If you work in lending, real estate, housing policy, or you're a homeowner navigating today's rate environment, this episode is for you.
Resources mentioned:
→ Spring 2026 RMIR full report: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report
→ CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Data Dashboard: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data/residential-mortgage-industry-data-dashboard
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