The Higher Standard

Washington just flipped. Democrats won both the House and the Senate overnight, with at least 54 Senate seats and new wins in Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, and both Carolinas. Futures sold off hard as the calls came in, then reversed. The Dow is now up more than 1,200 points, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are each up about 1.4%. Treasury yields are lower across the curve, the dollar is weaker against every major currency, and the VIX is down 16%. Under the surface, the moves are lopsided. Renewables and healthcare are rallying, while Nvidia, the AI infrastructure trade, neoclouds, defense, and prison operators are lagging. Is this the market cheering gridlock, or pricing in a new policy regime for AI, energy, and the Fed? Stay with us.
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🔗 Resources:
Dow jumps by 1,200 points as Democrats take control of Congress (CNN Business)
Stocks and Bonds Rise, Dollar Falls After US Vote: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg)
Market analysts react to Democratic sweep in US midterms (Reuters via Yahoo Finance)
Why the market is cheering a midterm Democratic sweep, Dow futures surge (Yahoo Finance)
Midterm Election Results: Democrats Sweep House and Senate (Forbes)
Homebuilders, Miners and Regional Banks Soar as Oil Drops 8%: Has the Hormuz Peace Trade Begun? (Benzinga)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Wall Street has a dirty little election secret: since World War II, the S&P 500 has finished higher one year after every midterm election. That's 20 for 20. Coincidence, conspiracy, or just Wall Street doing what Wall Street does best? In Episode 360, Chris unpacks the midterm playbook, from the Great Bond Massacre of 1994 and Orange County's $1.64 billion bankruptcy to the Fed's $600 billion surprise in 2010 and the 2018 market meltdown. With inflation stubborn, Treasury yields climbing, and Washington drowning in debt, the real question isn't who wins the election. It's what happens to your investments, mortgage, and purchasing power afterward. Because politicians count votes. Wall Street counts money. And only one of those pays your bills.
💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?
This episode is proudly brought to you by Fridays.
Because real wealth starts with your health. If you want to feel sharper, stronger, and more in control, visit joinfridays.com and use code HIGHER for an exclusive discount.
📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv
👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com
🔗 Resources:
Midterm Elections and Markets in Five Charts — Historical Stock Market Performance, Election Cycles & Post-Midterm Returns (Capital Group)
The Great Bond Massacre of 1994 — Federal Reserve Rate Hikes, Treasury Yields & the Bond Market Collapse (Fortune)
November 3, 2010 FOMC Statement — The Fed's $600 Billion Treasury Purchase Program Announced One Day After the Midterm Elections (Federal Reserve)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Oil blinked, but nobody here believes it. Brent has dropped to about $105 from $115 going into Friday's show, and the 10-year slid to 4.88%, a one-month low, yet the Nasdaq 100 is flat at 28,515 after the $5 trillion AI wipeout. Why the calm? Trump is mulling "another little Epic Fury" after Tuesday's midterms, a third carrier is heading to the region, and Khamenei ordered a response "without any geographical limitations," including financial assets. Fitch also hit France with a surprise outlook downgrade Saturday. Add jobs data and Apple earnings and this is the loaded week of the fall. We break down what gets priced before Tuesday night.
💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?
This episode is proudly brought to you by Fridays.
Because real wealth starts with your health. If you want to feel sharper, stronger, and more in control, visit joinfridays.com and use code HIGHER for an exclusive discount.
📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv
👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com
🔗 Resources:
A Stock Market Smackdown Week: Elections, Jobs Data, Iran And Earnings (Yahoo! Finance)
Stock futures open a monster week after a $5 trillion AI wipeout (Yahoo! Finance)
Trump Says Iran War Will End 'One Way or the Other' Ahead of Midterms Tuesday: Dow Futures Rise 184 Points, Brent Crude Falls to $111 (Benzinga News)
Iran vows response beyond Mideast and target financial assets; oil markets fear generational damage (Fortune)
Iran's Araghchi Hopes For 'Rationality' From US Amid Signs Renewed War Could Erupt (ZeroHedge)
Shipping Strikes In Hormuz Leave Both Sides With Economic Pain (Bloomberg Economics)
Rating agency Fitch hits France with unscheduled outlook downgrade (FT Markets)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Brent futures tagged $118 early this morning, a six-month high, and the Nasdaq 100 is down 3.8% since we last went live Wednesday, sitting at 28,518, its lowest level in a month. Fresh attacks on ships in Hormuz and Saudi energy assets, Trump getting briefed on military options, and a Vance letter Iran hasn't answered: everyone is positioning for the Tuesday after the midterms. Meanwhile Fed Chair Warsh says rates are biting and oil is feeding inflation expectations, yet he won't call conditions tight, so a December hike stays on the table. Gold and Bitcoin sit at one-month lows and the VIX just touched 20. Is the market bracing, or about to get blindsided? We go live at 11.
💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?
This episode is proudly brought to you by Fridays.
Because real wealth starts with your health. If you want to feel sharper, stronger, and more in control, visit joinfridays.com and use code HIGHER for an exclusive discount.
📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv
👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com
🔗 Resources:
Analysis: Kevin Warsh is keeping Wall Street guessing. It may be his most powerful tool (CNBC Top News)
Kevin Warsh Admits Rising Oil Prices Are Fueling Inflation Expectations as Trump's Energy Holdings Reportedly Soar 3X Amid Iran War (Benzinga News)
Brent January Futs Hit New Highs As Oil Market Braces For Post-Midterm Gulf Escalation (ZeroHedge)
The Day After Midterms: Diplomacy Or Another "Epic Fury"? (ZeroHedge)
Oil Prices Fall as Traders Weigh U.S.-Iran Diplomacy (WSJ)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

The Fed announces its decision at 11 AM PT, right as we go live, and the setup is ugly. Markets price under a 10% chance of a hike after September's first one in three years, but inflation has gotten worse since: September CPI hit 3.7%, and PCE is due tomorrow with the headline expected to jump to 3.7% from 3.4%. Traders already pencil in a December hike. Overnight the Bank of Canada hiked to 2.5% and said more could be needed, with oil as the driver. Brent has slid about 3.6% since Monday's show to $112.49 on Iran talks, yet it's still above $100 for 26 straight sessions. The 10-year sits at 5.03%, up 4bp since Monday. Warsh's press conference is the whole show. Tune in.
💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?
This episode is proudly brought to you by Fridays.
Because real wealth starts with your health. If you want to feel sharper, stronger, and more in control, visit joinfridays.com and use code HIGHER for an exclusive discount.
📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv
👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com
🔗 Resources:
Fed meeting live updates: No hike expected, but investors watching Warsh for what's next (CNBC)
Fed meeting updates: FOMC expected to hold interest rates steady, with more hikes on the horizon (Business Insider)
Bank of Canada Hikes to 2.5%, Says More Could Be Needed (Bloomberg Economics)
Oil falls almost $2 as Middle East talks help ease supply worries (Reuters)
'U.S., Canada Working On Deal To Ease U.S. Tariffs On Canadian Steel And Auto Imports' - Reuters Exclusive (Benzinga News)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.