Join Peter Tertzakian and Jackie Forrest from the ARC Energy Research Institute as they explore trends that influence the energy business, including financial, ...
The Trade Battle Unfolds – Insights from Former Deputy Prime Minister John Manley
On February 1st, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Imposing Duties to Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across Our Northern Border.” The order calls for a 25% tariff on virtually all Canadian goods imported into the United States and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products, starting February 4th. In response, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau imposed 25% tariffs on C$155 billion worth of American goods coming into Canada, with C$30 billion starting February 4th and the remaining 21 days later.On February 3rd, after this podcast was recorded, President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau agreed to pause the tariffs for at least 30 days.To help us understand the escalating trade war, we welcome the Honourable John Manley to the podcast. For over a decade, John served in the Federal Government as Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Finance, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Minister of Industry. He is currently the Chairman of Jefferies Securities Inc., a member of the Board of Directors of TELUS, and a Senior Advisor at Bennett Jones.Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked the Honourable John Manley: What are your thoughts on the abrupt turn in US - Canada relations? What else should Canada be doing at this point? What are Canada’s energy vulnerabilities in this dispute? Does Canada have emergency measures it can use? Should Canada boost spending to support businesses and people, and does the prorogation of parliament limit these options?Content referenced in this podcast: John Manley’s Op-ed in the Globe and Mail, “Dear Donald Trump: Your plan to create ‘the United States of Canada’ is brilliant” (January 15, 2025)The Main Project 25 Document Published in April 2023Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify
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43:26
Back in the Oval Office: Trump’s Energy Policy Agenda and Canadian Implications with Christopher Sands
This week on the podcast, we discuss Donald Trump’s inauguration and his return to the Oval Office, including his memorandums and executive orders. Joining the conversation is Christopher Sands, Director of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute, a specialist on Canada, US-Canadian relations, and North American economic integration.Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Christopher: What is your reaction to President Trump's speech to the business leaders at Davos, specifically his remarks about not needing Canadian lumber, automobiles, or oil and gas? President Trump’s inauguration speech mentioned expanding territory; does that mean going to war? The executive order "American First Trade Policy" outlined a process to make trade recommendations by April 1st. However, President Trump also mentioned February 1st as the day tariffs could be imposed on Canada and Mexico. Which date do you expect? How important is it for Canada to increase its military spending? Some of President Trump’s executive orders, such as “Unleashing American Energy” and “Declaring a National Energy Emergency,” grant the federal government significant powers—akin to wartime measures—to expedite energy infrastructure development. Do you expect these powers will be challenged in the courts? President Trump has stated that he will end the Green New Deal, and one executive order froze the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds. What is your expectation regarding support for clean energy? Canada currently has a void of federal leadership, and Premiers are filling the gap and going to Washington, D.C.; how is that being viewed in the US? What are your views on the top contenders for the next Prime Minister of Canada and their ability to negotiate successfully with President Trump and the new Administration?Content referenced in this podcast: The Canusa Street PodcastCanada and the United States: Differences That Count, Fifth edition, David Thomas and Christopher Sands Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify
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48:13
Carbon Markets in Uncertain Times: Insights from Michael Berends at ClearBlue Markets
This week, our guest is Michael Berends, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder of ClearBlue Markets. ClearBlue Markets helps clients harness carbon markets to meet their climate objectives. Here are some questions Peter and Jackie asked Michael: What is the overall sentiment toward carbon markets, especially after the Trump Administration's retreat from ESG initiatives? Are recent recommendations for new quality standards improving trust in voluntary carbon credits? Will COP29's global carbon market mechanism endorsement encourage more international trading? Why are Alberta TIER carbon market offsets discounted by 50%, and why do California LCFS and BC credit markets also have low prices? What are your expectations for Canadian Clean Fuel Regulation (CFR) credit prices, and could the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) repeal the regulation if elected? Why does Canada have 11 carbon markets? Can industrial emitters trade carbon offsets in Ontario? Content referenced in this podcast:ICE has two futures markets for Alberta Carbon Credits: Alberta Emission Offset and Alberta Emission Performance CreditsPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify
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39:49
Trump, Tariffs, and Trade: Impacts on Canadian Oil and Gas
The threat of tariffs on Canada’s trade with the United States continues to be top of mind, with Alberta’s Premier, Danielle Smith, recently returning from Mar-a-Lago after meeting with President-elect Donald Trump over the weekend.This week on the podcast, our guest is Marcus Rocque, Vice President at the ARC Energy Research Institute. Marcus joins Jackie and Peter in discussing the potential for Canadian oil and gas tariffs and the possible market implications. They review Canada’s trade surplus with the United States, which is smaller than Donald Trump often claims, and whether the trade surplus is the only motivation for his threats to Canada. Next, they consider the amount of oil and natural gas Canada sends to the United States and the US's ability to substitute some of this consumption with alternative supply. Finally, they consider how the tariffs could impact US consumers and Canadian oil and gas producers.Content referenced in this podcast:Polymarket: “Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico/Canada?” Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify
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40:45
The Year Ahead: Top Energy Themes and Trudeau’s Resignation
Peter and Jackie start the new year by reviewing their predictions from 2024: what did they get right, and what did they miss?Next, they introduce their top energy themes to watch in 2025 and some predictions. Themes include changing governments and policy in the US and Canada – including the breaking news at the time of recording that Prime Minister Trudeau was resigning. They also predict the return of energy security and sovereignty as a growing conversation in 2025.Finally, they discuss Canada’s Clean Electricity Regulations (CER), published in the Gazette, Part II, at the end of 2024. The final rule aims to achieve net zero electricity in Canada by 2050 versus 2035 (the target in an earlier draft). Content referenced in this podcast:Donald Trump’s January 2, 2025, X post on how tariffs create wealth for Americans Final Clean Electricity Regulations (December 13, 2024)Jordan B. Peterson Podcast interview with Pierre Poilievre (released January 2, 2025)The deadline to provide a “Notice of Objection” on the oil and gas cap is January 8, 2025. Email the objection to [email protected]. See more information under the heading “PROPOSED REGULATORY TEXT” in Canada Gazette, Part I, Volume 158, Number 45: Oil and Gas Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap Regulations Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple Podcasts Amazon Music Spotify
Join Peter Tertzakian and Jackie Forrest from the ARC Energy Research Institute as they explore trends that influence the energy business, including financial, political, environmental, technological, social and economic forces.
Canada - english