ARC ENERGY IDEAS

• Oil Price Volatility: Recession Fears and OPEC+ Surprise

  After averaging around $US 75/B over the past few years, the WTI oil price fell below $US 60/B in early May. The weakness is driven by growing concerns about a potential recession resulting from US tariffs and announcements from the OPEC+ group that they will accelerate adding supply to the market, just as demand may be softening. To help us understand the recent volatility in oil prices, our guest this week is Jeremy Irwin, Global Crude Lead at Energy Aspects. Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Jeremy: Is this a repeat of 2015, when OPEC decided to flood the market to weaken US shale oil producers? Is President Trump influencing the OPEC+ strategy, as he may want lower oil prices to help offset the inflationary effects of US tariffs? At current price levels, how will US oil production respond? If profit is tight at lower prices, will US oil producers prioritize paying shareholders or capital spending? How might changes to US sanctions on Venezuela, Russia, and Iran impact the oil market? When do you expect global (and China’s) oil demand to peak? In the short term, how serious is the threat of recession to oil demand? Do you expect Canadian oil export infrastructure to expand? Content referenced in this podcast:See the Energy Aspects website to learn more about their research data, tools, and consulting servicesPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

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• It’s Time to Build Canada Into an Energy Superpower

  Canadians voted for Mark Carney and the Liberal government on April 28th, 2025. In his victory speech, Prime Minister Carney asserted, "It's time to build Canada into an energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy." This week's podcast delves into the election results and its potential impact on Canadian energy with guest Greg Lyle, the founder and President of Innovative Research Group, a full-service market research firm with offices in Vancouver and Toronto. Peter and Jackie discussed several topics with Greg, including surprises in the election results, how the Liberal minority government could collaborate with other parties to pass legislation, and the potential future direction of energy policy based on the Liberal platform and Prime Minister Carney's post-election statements. They also explored possible support for LNG export facilities, clean energy initiatives, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects like the Oil Sands Pathways Alliance project. Additionally, they considered proposals from the Liberals and industry to amend the Impact Assessment Act (Bill C-69), aiming to expedite decision timelines for project approvals. Content referenced in this podcast:Letter from Canadian energy CEO’s to Mark Carney (April 30, 2025) “Build Canada Now: Energy CEOS to the Prime Minster of Canada: An Urgent Action Plan to Strengthen Economic Sovereignty”Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

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• Electricity Demand, AI, and Market Reform: A Conversation with John Kousinioris, President and CEO TransAlta

  This week, our guest is John Kousinioris, President and CEO of TransAlta, one of Canada's largest power generators. TransAlta owns, operates, and develops a diverse fleet of electrical power generation assets in Canada, the US, and Western Australia, producing electricity from renewable sources and thermal generation. Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked John: What are the reasons behind TransAlta’s merger with TransAlta Renewables? What are your expectations for electricity load growth in North America, and how will AI data centers impact demand? Does TransAlta have plans for new investments to meet data center demand? Are there risks to electric system reliability due to fast data center growth? Are there supply chain bottlenecks for new generation projects, and do tariffs compound the issue? What are your perspectives on Alberta’s plan to redesign its electricity market? Do you see merit in building an east-west electricity grid in Canada? Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

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• Policy Discussion: The Only Certainty Is Uncertainty

  This week, Peter and Jackie discuss the latest news on the Canadian federal election, including takeaways from the leaders' debate on April 17th and the platform released by the Liberal Party on April 19th. The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) had not yet released a full platform document at the time of recording.Next, they provide an update on investment in clean energy.  Equity values of publicly traded clean energy companies have fallen for the past four years (as measured by WilderHill Clean Energy ETF). At the same time, based on research by BloombergNEF, the sector registered an increase of 11% in new investment in 2024. The market is becoming bifurcated, with investment in mature and profitable technologies growing, and investment in emerging technologies, which are more dependent on government policy support, declining.  Peter and Jackie also discuss China's dominance in clean energy technology manufacturing and the impact that US tariffs could have on clean energy globally, considering China’s strong position and outlook for continuing expansion.  Content referenced in this podcast:Yale Budget Lab’s estimate of the US effective tariff rate (April 15)Liberal Platform (released April 19, 2025)BloombergNEF Energy Transition Investment Trends 2025 Edition White House Executive Order “Protecting American Energy from State Overreach” (April 8, 2025)Dan Yergin and Atul Arya “The Troubled Energy Transition: How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward,” Foreign Affairs (March/April 2025) Nat Bullard Annual Presentation (see slide 135 for China’s exports to the US, EU, and Global South)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

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• Ice and Opportunity: Canada’s Northern Trade Route

  To begin this week’s podcast, Peter and Jackie recap the past week's events, including President Trump's tariff U-turn and the escalating US-China tariff war.Next, the conversation turns to Canada, the upcoming federal election, and Arctic export ports. To help us understand the opportunities and challenges with Arctic ports, Chris Avery, CEO of the Arctic Gateway Group joins the show. The Arctic Gateway Group is an Indigenous and community-owned transportation company that operates the Port of Churchill—Canada’s only Arctic seaport serviced by rail—and the Hudson Bay Railway, connecting The Pas to Churchill, Manitoba.Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Chris: What is the condition of the rail line to the port now? What types of goods are currently exported from the port, and what types are expected to be exported in the future? Is it a deep-water port? How much of the year is Hudson Bay covered by ice, preventing exports? Is it feasible to break the ice? They also discussed whether the port could be suitable for LNG exports. Content referenced in this podcast:Mark Carney, Liberal platform, economic pillars for change with a plan for Arctic ports (note, the Conservative party of Canada also has an Arctic control and sovereignty plan, but it does not explicitly identify energy export ports). Energy News “Arctic Pipelines to Capture European Market” (March 26, 2025), reporting that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s initiative aimed at expanding the country’s oil infrastructure toward the ArcticLNG Industry, “Ice-breaking LNG carrier for Yamal LNG project named Vladimir Rusanov” (January 2018)Ship Technology “Mikhail Ulyanov Ice-Class Tanker” (December 2008)The BC Government announces more flexibility for the LNG net-zero 2030 policy, see March 28, 2025 letter to project proponent and updated Climate Action Secretariat’s Net Zero Plan Requirements Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

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