ARC ENERGY IDEAS

This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie review some of the latest developments in clean energy and the broader energy transition — including a discussion of terminology, with Peter advocating for a return to the older term “alternative energy”. 
They begin by discussing Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s latest “Energy Transition Investment Trends (2026)”, which finds that global investment in the energy transition reached a record $2.3 trillion in 2025, up 8 % from 2024. 
Next, they review a set of charts from a 200-slide deck released by Nat Bullard, an annual presentation on the state of decarbonization. Nat describes himself as a “climate-focused keynote speaker, board-level strategist, consultant, and advisor.”  His side deck provides a comprehensive overview of the latest data across a wide range of energy types. 
Finally, the hosts discuss a couple of new papers by Peter Tertzakian: one titled “Venezuela’s Fiscal Competitiveness” and another called “Oil, Mercantilism, and the Return of Gunboat Economics”. In this segment, they debate the impact of Venezuela’s high government take, which has contributed to declining production, and consider recent reforms to the country’s oil and gas sector aimed at attracting foreign investment.
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This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter are joined by Marcus Rocque, Vice President of Research at the ARC Energy Research Institute. This episode focuses on Canadian federal carbon policy, including a discussion of the carbon pricing policy for large industrial emitters and the recently finalized methane regulations, which target a 75% reduction by 2030 (relative to 2012). The discussion centers on how these policies affect competitiveness, investment, and infrastructure development in Canada's natural gas and oil sector. 
They start by discussing Prime Minister Carney’s recent speech at Davos. Next, they review recent developments in Canadian carbon policy, including the Canada–Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed on November 27, 2025, in which both governments agreed to work toward an oil pipeline to reach Asian markets. The MOU also outlines a plan to develop a revised industrial carbon pricing policy and methane regulations by April 1, 2026. Not long after the MOU was signed, in December 2025, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), a federal agency, issued final methane regulations that conflict with the MOU, with one requiring an end date of 2030 and the other 2035.  Further to this, ECCC released a discussion paper in December titled “Driving Effective Carbon Markets in Canada”, asking for feedback by January 30, 2026, on potential changes to Canada’s carbon markets, which are also being modified as part of the Canada-Alberta MOU by April 1. 
Jackie, Peter, and Marcus discuss what “carbon competitiveness” means and how Canadians should think about it in a changing global energy landscape. They also share concerns about the carbon market discussion paper and new methane regulations. 
Content referenced on this podcast:
Discussion Paper: Driving Effective Carbon Markets in Canada. Send your feedback to ECCC before January 30, 2026, by emailing: [email protected] 
Final Methane Regulations: Canada Gazette, Part II, Volume 159, Number 27 
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This week on the podcast, we welcome back Rob West, founder and CEO of Thunder Said Energy.  Founded in 2019, the firm provides research that helps decision-makers identify energy opportunities. Based in Estonia, nine time zones away, Rob is an exceptionally productive energy expert whose work spans a wide range of topics. 
We begin by walking through Rob’s Top Ten Themes for Energy in 2026, including the continued steady growth in global oil demand, a waning focus on net zero, EVs, and decarbonization. With that lens, we also discuss Canada’s Pathways carbon capture and storage (CCS) project. Rob then shares his bullish outlook for LNG demand growth, with positive implications for Canada’s aspiration to grow LNG exports. Rob also argues that there is a growing investment case for grid-enhancing technologies to increase the utilization of existing infrastructure and meet rising electricity loads. We also touch on the outlook for copper demand driven by electrification, robotics, and AI data centers, as well as Rob’s expectations for electricity load growth, which are more conservative than some other forecasts. 
Finally, Rob and Jackie revisit Jackie’s “doomsday” scenario: what it would actually cost to back up her home during an extended power outage, comparing options such as using stored power from an electric vehicle, a home battery, and a natural gas generator. 
Content referenced on this podcast:
Sign up for Rob’s daily note at his website, https://thundersaidenergy.com/ 
Ten Themes for Energy in 2026 from Thunder Said Energy (January 1, 2026) 
Rob’s video: US load growth: unpopular opinions (September 3, 2025) 
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Predicting the Unpredictable: Energy and Geopolitics in 2026 
This week, Peter and Jackie kick off the year with their 2026 outlook. They begin by asking a fundamental question: How relevant are predictions in an increasingly unpredictable world? 
While acknowledging the limits of forecasting, they outline key themes and directional expectations for 2026—and remind leaders that, in times like these, scenario development, continuous monitoring, and course correction are far more valuable than rigid forecasts. 
The discussion focuses on four major areas shaping the outlook for Canadian energy, spanning oil and gas and clean energy technologies: 
Global geopolitics and energy markets: examining how unfolding events in Venezuela and Iran—and ongoing tensions involving the United States, China, Russia, and Ukraine—could influence global energy markets. 
Oil and gas fundamentals: assessing the direction of oil prices and North American natural gas in 2026. 
Technology and disruption: exploring whether electric vehicles will regain momentum, how rapidly solar deployment will continue to scale, and whether projections for AI-driven energy demand will keep accelerating. 
Canada’s unique circumstances: politics, policy, and infrastructure—from climate policy and the Ottawa–Alberta memorandum of understanding (MOU) on an oil pipeline, to elections (and potential elections) to watch. 
While predicting the future may be difficult, one thing Jackie and Peter are confident about is that the ARC Energy Ideas podcast will be here throughout the year—helping you navigate what is shaping up to be a consequential and eventful year for energy markets and geopolitics. 
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This special episode analyzes the United States’ intervention in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, and explores its broader implications for Canada and the Canadian oil sector. 
Peter and Jackie open with a discussion of the geopolitical backdrop and the range of narratives circulating about the U.S. motivations for seizing and arresting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, including efforts to curb drug trafficking and illegal migration, and to counter the growing influence of China, Russia, and terrorist groups in the country. They also reference the U.S. National Security Strategy released in November 2025, which calls for a Western Hemisphere free from hostile foreign control and signals renewed enforcement of a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. 
The Monroe Doctrine is a foundational principle of U.S. foreign policy, first announced in 1823, that set out the United States' view of the Western Hemisphere.  General principles at the time held that European powers should no longer interfere in the Americas and that the Western Hemisphere was now the U.S. sphere of influence. 
Peter and Jackie then turn to the oil market implications for Canadian oil. If sanctions on Venezuela were eased, increased Venezuelan heavy oil exports to the U.S. could intensify competition for Canadian oil on the U.S. Gulf Coast, which accounts for about 10% of Canada’s crude oil exports. The exports to Canada’s largest market, the U.S. Midwest, which makes up 70% of all exports, are more insulated. 
The discussion concludes with an assessment of potential Venezuelan production scenarios, including the possibility of declining output, a pattern that has frequently followed similar government changes in the past. They conclude that, in any scenario, a clear takeaway for Canada is that building additional West Coast pipelines is critical. Diversifying export markets, strengthening economic resilience, and improving national sovereignty and autonomy are imperatives for Canada.
Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ 
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LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute 
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