ARC ENERGY IDEAS

This week, our guest is the Honourable Tim Hodgson, Canada’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources. The conversation was recorded at CERAWeek in Houston on March 24, 2026. 
Here are some of the questions Jackie asked Minister Hodgson: How is Canadian energy being perceived at CERAWeek, particularly in the context of the war in the Middle East? Do you expect that Canada will meet the Prime Minister’s targets of 50 million tonnes per annum of LNG exports by 2030 and potentially double that by 2040? What steps is Canada taking to attract the hundreds of billions in capital required to advance and build major projects, particularly amid strong competition from the United States? With the first deadline for the Alberta–Ottawa Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) just one week away, what progress has been made, and what are the prospects for advancing a 1 MMB/d oil pipeline to access Asian markets? Is Canada fiscally competitive, especially given its carbon pricing and policy framework compared to the United States? And finally, what opportunities lie ahead for Canada in electricity generation growth? 
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Over the past decade, the Canadian economy has been driven largely by consumption and government spending, while business investment has remained relatively flat. To accelerate Canada’s economic growth, an objective emphasized by Prime Minister Mark Carney, Canada will need stronger business investment, particularly investments with the “one-two punch” of growing the economy through increased capital spending in the early years and greater exports in the longer term. 
To explore the historical drivers of GDP and what expanded export capacity could mean for Canada’s economy, Mark Parsons, Vice President and Chief Economist at ATB Financial, joins Jackie and Peter on the podcast. The discussion ends with answering the question: What would an additional 1.5 million barrels per day of oil pipeline export capacity, including a West Coast pipeline to Asia and other expansion projects, mean for Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth and jobs outlook over the next decade? 
Studio.Energy and ATB have collaborated on a series of reports examining Canada’s GDP and the potential economic impact of increased oil export capacity. The series also includes background articles explaining how GDP is calculated and historical trends. 
These articles are available on both the Studio.Energy and ATB websites (see links below). 
Content referenced in this podcast:
Peter Tertzakian’s op-ed in The Hub.ca: The next act in the oil crisis: Time to get ready for rationing and hoarding? (March 13, 2026)  
Seeking Shelter: Iran and the Next Structural Shift in Global Oil Markets (March 9, 2026) 
Studio.Energy reports on Canadian GDP and pipelines:  The GDP Payoff of Additional Oil Pipeline Capacity (March 18, 2026) 
Canada’s GDP Dilemma: The Illusion of Growth (March 5, 2026) 
Other background reports on GDP: Canada’s Economy Under Siege (January 30, 2026) and What is GDP, Really? (February 5, 2026) 

ATB reports on Canadian GDP and pipelines: The GDP Payoff of Additional Oil Pipeline Capacity (March 18, 2026) 
See all GDP reports at: Special Reports | ATB Financial 
Background report on productivity and the importance of the oil and gas sector, “Productive diversification: Maintaining Alberta’s productivity edge”  (August 2024) 

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This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter review developments in the Iran war, which entered its tenth day at the time of recording on the morning of March 9, 2026. 
The U.S. reports striking thousands of targets in Iran during the first week of the conflict and damaging or destroying more than 40 Iranian naval vessels. In response, Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have launched missiles and drones across more than ten countries in the region. 
Energy infrastructure across the Middle East has also been targeted, including facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, and Iran. Some regional producers have shut in oil production due to export disruptions, full storage tanks, and, in some cases, damaged facilities. 
Tankers continue to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply and LNG trade normally pass. The U.S. has offered naval escorts and a $20 billion tanker reinsurance program to restore shipping, but tankers are not moving yet. WTI briefly surged to about US$118 per barrel on March 9, before easing, amid reports that the G7 was considering releasing strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) and comments from the US President suggesting that the conflict could be nearing an end. 
Jackie and Peter also explore potential winners from the crisis, including renewable energy and other alternatives, electric vehicles (EVs), Russia, and possibly Canada, particularly if Canada can expand market access and increase oil and gas production. 
Content referenced in this podcast:
Financial Times: G7 discuss joint release of emergency oil reserves (March 9, 2026) 
Polymarket: US X Iran cease-fire by….  
CBC: Nervous nations calling Canada's energy minister after Iran strikes (March 3, 2026) 
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On February 28, the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, killing the Supreme Leader along with other senior leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In his initial statements following the attack, President Trump signaled that regime change was a potential objective. 
Iran responded aggressively, targeting a range of military, civilian, and energy infrastructure across nine countries at the time of recording. Energy facilities have been hit, including a refinery in Saudi Arabia and LNG export facilities in Qatar. The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows and a key corridor for Qatar’s LNG exports, is effectively blocked. Shipping companies and insurers are unwilling to risk moving through the narrow chokepoint amid ongoing missile and drone attacks in the region. Several tankers have also reportedly been struck. 
As a result, oil and natural gas prices have risen. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for an extended period, even higher prices are expected. 
This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie are joined by Josef Schachter, President and Founder of Schachter Energy Research Services Inc. They discuss the recent events, oil prices, available spare production capacity, and inventories, and what these developments could mean for the Canadian oil and gas industry. 
Content referenced on this podcast:
Learn more about the Schachter Energy Report and the Eye on Energy Report 
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Prime Minister Mark Carney has said Canada needs to “build at speeds not seen in generations.” More than ten major projects have now been referred to the Major Projects Office (MPO). Assuming that all of the projects move forward in the next few years, will Canada have enough skilled workers to deliver them? 
To explore this question, our guest this week is Sean Strickland, Executive Director of Canada’s Building Trades Unions. Canada’s Building Trades Unions is the voice of the country’s construction workers, representing more than 600,000 skilled tradespeople across Canada. 
Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Sean: What is the current situation- do we have a shortage or an excess of trade workers? How might that change if all the projects being advanced by the Major Projects Office (MPO) move into construction over the next few years? How mobile is the labour force, and are there policy changes that could improve labour mobility? Are temporary foreign workers still available if Canadian labour becomes stretched thin? What are the demographics of the current workforce? What is it like to work on industrial projects in remote regions, including both the sacrifices and the rewards? How can workforce planning be done when the number of projects that will ultimately proceed remains highly uncertain?
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