The Steady State Sentinel

The acclaimed military historian explains why conflict in Iran, Ukraine and the erosion of alliances point to a deeper crisis in American strategy and details the critical nature of the 2026 midterm elections.
In the latest episode of the Steady State Sentinel, Phillips O'Brien, Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews and one of the sharpest contemporary writers on war and strategy joins host John Sipher to argue the Iran War revealed two devastating truths:
The U.S. government is strategically incoherent — it went to war without clear goals or an exit plan.
The U.S. military is showing signs of degradation, with weaker officers promoted and critical thinking suppressed.
He dissects the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, calling it a capitulation: "Trump got nothing. Iran is in better shape at the end than it was before the bombing started." He warns that the U.S. is now deemed utterly untrustworthy by allies, in Europe and throughout Asia, and that China is now positioned to win a war with the U.S. due to America's military degradation and collapsed industrial base.
He critiques the Biden administration's "Goldilocks strategy" in Ukraine — which, concerned about global stability, sought to ensure that Ukraine could survive, but didn't want Russia to lose. This was followed by Trump, who abandoned Ukraine completely.
O’Brien frames the 2026 midterms as the most consequential election since 1862 on which hinged the results of the Civil War. The results of the 2026 midterms will determine whether the massive corruption within this administration becomes fully entrenched throughout the government: once these systems go corrupt, it becomes entrenched.
The episode closes with O'Brien explaining why the Administration’s MAGA movement has resulted in the deliberate destruction of the U.S. Alliance system that has kept America strong and prosperous for the last 80 years. If it continues unchecked, the stability we enjoyed will be impossible to rebuild.
Guest info: Phillips O'Brien is Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews and one of the sharpest contemporary writers on war, strategy, and political power. He is the author of several major books, including How the War Was Won, The Strategists, The Second Most Powerful Man in the World, and most recently War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why. He writes regularly for The Atlantic, Foreign Affairs, and his own Substack, Phillips's Newsletter.
Episode Transcript

Service, gut checks, the power of humanity in law enforcement, and why she said “yes” to The Steady State.
In a format shift, host Peter Mina turns the microphone over to co-host Lauren C. Anderson to explore her origin story — from a childhood visit to the FBI where a tour guide told her girls can't be agents because “...they paint their fingernails," to serving as a senior executive in the FBI across nearly 30 years.
Lauren shares how her first "failure" — struggling with pre-med science in college taught her to trust her gut and pivot. She recounts harrowing moments in the Central African country of Gabon, where she negotiated with a corrupt colonel to restore dignity to a torture victim who was a witness in a murder investigation, demonstrating that you can be "tough and compassionate at the same time.
She reflects on what it was like being a woman in a male-dominated world, the importance of de-escalation and proportionality in law enforcement, and why she believes the current administration has abandoned the humanity that should define public service. The episode closes with Lauren explaining why she joined The Steady State — because "if everybody takes the approach that it's someone else's turn, we will never be the best that we can be."
Guest info: Lauren C. Anderson is a former senior executive at the FBI with nearly 30 years of service working national security issues in the U.S. and overseas. She spent her career running toward crises that most people run away from, working cases across Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. She is a co-host of The Steady State Sentinel and writes the Substack column "What We Choose to Defend."
Host Peter Mina is the founder of the Mina firm, a civil rights and federal employment law firm in Washington, D.C., and a former Deputy Officer for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties at the Department of Homeland Security, where he worked to integrate civil rights and civil liberties protections into the department's national security programs.
Episode Transcript

A former U.S. Army officer, diplomat, and ambassador to Cambodia and Zimbabwe on oath, duty, service beyond party, the collapse of institutional guardrails, and why rebuilding trust will take decades.
Host Jim Lawler, a former senior CIA operations officer, sits down with Ambassador Charles A. Ray, a rare polymath who served 20 years in the U.S. Army (including two combat tours in Vietnam) followed by 30 years in the Foreign Service, as Ambassador to Cambodia and Zimbabwe, and as the first U.S. Consul General in Ho Chi Minh City.
Together, they explore what happens when the oath to the Constitution is replaced by loyalty to a single man. Ambassador Ray describes how some first-term officials in the Trump Administration, including Mike Pence, Defense Secretaries, Attorneys General, still functioned as constraints on Trump’s worst impulses, and why he believes the second administration has been stocked with yes people, sycophants, and what he calls a “confederacy of dunces.”
Ray shares a chilling firsthand account of a U.S. Army colonel making overtly partisan political statements in pre‑deployment briefings, and recalls that, when Ray challenged the colonel directly, Ray was the one told he would no longer be deployed there.
He reflects on watching January 6 in tears, calling it something he had only seen in “shithole dictatorships,” and names the 1776 Fund and pardons for January 6 participants as evidence that the country has “already walked through the door” of autocracy.
Ray diagnoses America’s damaged credibility abroad: “our heart and our head have caught up with each other, and they’re both in the wrong place.” He warns that even with a change in leadership in 2028, the work of un‑indoctrinating a politicized national-security workforce, civil service, and new generation of government hires will take two to three administrations. He ends with a sobering message to young people considering government service: go in with your eyes wide open, because silence is consent.

Episode Transcript

Guest info: Ambassador Charles A. Ray served 20 years as a U.S. Army officer, including two combat tours in Vietnam, followed by a 30‑year career in the Foreign Service. He served as U.S. Ambassador to Cambodia and to Zimbabwe, and was the first U.S. Consul General to Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam. He also served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for POW/Missing Personnel Affairs. He is a prolific author of more than 400 works of fiction and nonfiction, including leadership, history, diplomacy, and Westerns. He remains active in foreign policy work as a trustee and chair of the Africa program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He also teaches in Arizona State University’s School of Public Politics and Global Studies.

Two former federal prosecutors on what the job is supposed to represent at its best, why Bob Mueller was the model, and the prosecutor’s unique duty to serve and protect the system itself.
What does it mean to be a federal prosecutor when the client is the United States and the measure of success is not simply winning, but doing justice and doing it the right way? In the latest Steady State Sentinel podcast, former federal prosecutor and Steady State member Steve Bunnell interviews former federal prosecutor Ken Wainstein, who, among many senior positions, served as U.S. attorney in the Southern District of New York, General Counsel and Chief of Staff to Bob Mueller, and Homeland Security Advisor for President George W. Bush.
Together, they explore best practices of their prosecutorial craft, using the legendary career of the late Bob Mueller as their North Star. They focus on Mueller's journey from Assistant Attorney General to line homicide prosecutor in Washington, D.C., during one of the city’s most violent periods, earning the admiration of detectives, judges, and colleagues alike.
The conversation unpacks the unwritten values of the ideal prosecutor: integrity over showmanship, public service over personal glory, protecting the rights of the accused while pursuing righteous convictions, parking politics outside the door, and leaving the institution stronger than you found it. With an appearance by homicide Lieutenant Guy Middleton, this episode is both a tribute to Mueller and a reminder that rule of law depends not only on laws and procedures, but on public servants with the character, humility, and integrity to uphold them.
The episode includes a special appearance by Guy Middleton, a homicide lieutenant from the period when Bob Mueller served as a prosecutor in Washington, D.C.
Episode Transcript
Guest info:
Kenneth Wainstein, is a former federal prosecutor who served as an assistant U.S. attorney in the Southern District of New York and the District of Columbia, including in the homicide section. He later served as General Counsel and Chief of Staff to FBI Director Bob Mueller, then as a U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia and the first Assistant Attorney General for National Security. His career at DOJ spanned approximately 18 years. Ken also served as DHS Under Secretary for Intelligence and Analysis from June 2022 through January 2025.
Host info:
Steve Bunnell, a Steady State member, is a former federal prosecutor who served more than 17 years at DOJ, including as Chief of the Criminal Division in the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Washington, D.C., and at Main Justice. He now practices law as senior counsel at a small firm in D.C.

A former CIA chief of staff and White House Situation Room senior director warns that politicized intelligence can weaken national security by chilling truth telling, hollowing out institutions, and discouraging young talent from entering public service.
Former senior CIA operations officer Jim Lawler sits down with Larry Pfeiffer, former senior director of the White House Situation Room and chief of staff to CIA Director Michael Hayden, who describes the rigors of working in the Situation Room, crisis decision-making, and what it takes to deliver accurate information when seconds matter.
He describes advising Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite, helping portray the White House Situation Room with realism and showing audiences what crisis decision-making feels like on “a pretty bad day.” Other discussions center on the dangers of politicizing intelligence, the professional duty to speak truth to power, and the institutional costs of loyalty tests and political pressure.
Drawing on decades of experience across the CIA, NSA, ODNI, and the White House, Pfeiffer explains how fear can chill analysis, drive experienced officers out, discourage young talent from serving, and weaken the systems that protect national security. He recounts a late‑Friday meeting with CIA Director Michael Hayden before a highly sensitive operation, when he urged Hayden to confirm he had the president's backing before giving the go order.
Episode Transcript
Guest info: Larry Pfeiffer is the director of George Mason University’s Michael V. Hayden Center for Intelligence, Policy, and International Security, where he oversees the center’s operations and public programming. A veteran of the U.S. Intelligence Community, he previously served as senior director of the White House Situation Room, chief of staff to CIA Director Michael Hayden, and in senior roles at the CIA, ODNI, and NSA. He also advised Kathryn Bigelow’s film A House of Dynamite on the realistic portrayal of the White House Situation Room.