OpenAI says o1-preview can't meaningfully help novices make chemical and biological weapons. Their test results don’t clearly establish this.https://planned-obsolescence.org/openais-cbrn-tests-seem-unclear
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Dangerous capability tests should be harder
We should be spending less time proving today’s AIs are safe and more time figuring out how to tell if tomorrow’s AIs are dangerous: planned-obsolescence.org/dangerous-capability-tests-should-be-harder
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Scale, schlep, and systems
This startlingly fast progress in LLMs was driven both by scaling up LLMs and doing schlep to make usable systems out of them. We think scale and schlep will both improve rapidly: planned-obsolescence.org/scale-schlep-and-systems
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Language models surprised us
Most experts were surprised by progress in language models in 2022 and 2023. There may be more surprises ahead, so experts should register their forecasts now about 2024 and 2025: https://planned-obsolescence.org/language-models-surprised-us
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Could AI accelerate economic growth?
Most new technologies don’t accelerate the pace of economic growth. But advanced AI might do this by massively increasing the research effort going into developing new technologies.
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