All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

(0:00) The Besties welcome Brad Gerstner!
(3:48) Economic fallout of the Iran War, escalation scenarios, impact on midterms
(19:18) Off ramp strategies, Gulf state involvement, the China angle
(27:05) Anthropic and OpenAI scaling revenue faster than any company ever
(46:11) AI's PR disaster, open source's future
(1:07:51) Washington passes "Millionaire Tax," Howard Schultz bails for Miami
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Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BZW00:NYMEX
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/cargo-ship-struck-strait-of-hormuz-uk-iran-war.html
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-12-26?post-id=cmmnhwyod000l3b6wdinc1dw5
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/ending-iran-war-quickly-carries-big-risks-for-the-u-s-and-allies-60c003de
https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-enter-iran-by
https://x.com/altcap/status/2029223717356879931
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/iea-proposes-largest-ever-oil-release-from-strategic-reserves-275f4e5c
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-war-oil-operation-epic-fury-mojtaba-khamenei-0d2edb9c
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-12-26
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2031827082934665293
https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms
https://polymarket.com/event/march-inflation-us-annual
https://www.ft.com/content/7cab4ec7-4712-4137-b602-119a44f771de
https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropic
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/06/pentagon-anthropic-amodei-apology
https://www.ft.com/content/97bda2ef-fc06-40b3-a867-f61a711b148b
https://x.com/WallStreetMav/status/2032115119879045512
https://x.com/TheChiefNerd/status/2032012809433723158
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/poll-majority-voters-say-risks-ai-outweigh-benefits-rcna262196
https://hai.stanford.edu/news/most-read-the-stanford-hai-stories-that-defined-ai-in-2025
https://x.com/DrTechlash/status/2030734402339365220
https://www.semafor.com/article/12/07/2025/ai-critics-funded-ai-coverage-at-top-newsrooms
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/howard-schultz-starbucks-ceo-leaving-seattle-washington-millionaire-tax/
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/13/howard-schultz-2020-taxes-1167363
https://x.com/chamath/status/2032135944284094910
https://www.hoover.org/research/net-present-value-billionaire-tax-act-assessment-fiscal-effects-californias-proposed
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-which-u-s-states-gained-the-most-residents-in-2025
https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-and-khanna-introduce-legislation-to-tax-billionaire-wealth-and-invest-in-working-families

(0:00) Jason and Chamath welcome SEC's Paul Atkins and CFTC's Michael Selig
(0:53) Atkins on how US markets have changed over his 40 year career
(3:04) Top priorities across both agencies: Fixing the IPO drought, crypto regulation, cutting unnecessary rules
(8:16) AI trading bots, autonomous hedge funds, and investing with leverage
(15:30) Ending the "Turf War" between the SEC and CFTC, super app vision
(19:15) Prediction markets, insider trading, gray area
(26:56) Trump advocates for changing quarterly earnings to bi-annual
(30:30) Changing the accreditation rules a priority for 2026
(34:56) HFT firms that dominate the futures markets, swap reporting
(40:36) VC fund formation
(46:18) US markets vs the world, crypto classification
(52:54) Biggest risks: Market manipulation, crypto scams, and the Gen Z gambling crisis
 
SEC Chair Paul Atkins:
https://x.com/SECPaulSAtkins
CFTC Chair Michael Selig:
https://x.com/ChairmanSelig
Follow the besties:
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Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) The Besties welcome legendary Harvard professor Graham Allison
(1:14) Iran Conflict: Strategy, Netanyahu's influence, Trump's motivation, redefining Middle East security
(11:44) Iran endgame scenarios: Democracy, extremism, second-order effects
(21:07) Israel: Is Netanyahu destroying Israel's democracy?
(24:28) China: Taiwan invasion, trade, and Trump's April meeting
(39:50) Greenland: Importance, deal scenarios, EU socialism angle
(48:58) Nuclear proliferation: 80-80-9 framework explained
(56:20) Rising socialism in America: wealth inequality and political risk
Thanks to our partner Airwallex!
Airwallex is a leading global payments and financial platform for modern businesses,offering trusted solutions to manage everything from business accounts, payments, treasury, and spend management to embedded finance.
https://airwallex.com/allin
Follow the besties:
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https://x.com/Jason
https://x.com/DavidSacks
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Follow on X:
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Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) Jason intros Prince Reza Pahlavi
(1:09) Pahlavi's take on the war and vision for Iran's future, Democracy, and return
(8:53) Trump's surrender conditions, core principles, role in transition and potential leadership
(17:14) Thoughts on the people and spirit of Iran
(21:33) Shervin Pishevar joins: thoughts on the current regime killing 40k+ protestors, future of the Middle East
(33:59) Future leader and government of Iran, plan for transition
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Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) The Besties welcome Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
(2:30) US war with Iran: Bigger picture and why now?
(13:16) Trump's new approach to warfare, AI, drones, rules of engagement
(28:39) Israel's role in the conflict, relationship with the US, Iron Beam
(37:24) Oil prices, Trump's maritime insurance play
(41:19) Pentagon vs Anthropic: Why Anthropic was labeled a supply-chain risk
(1:02:03) How to value Anthropic after its supply chain risk designation
(1:11:14) State of the US defense supply chain, the defense tech industry, DARPA, and China's military
Follow Emil Michael:
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https://x.com/emilmichael
Follow the besties:
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Follow on X:
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Follow on Instagram:
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Follow on LinkedIn:
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Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://x.com/chamath/status/2029584905831891069
https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-enter-iran-by
https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026
https://x.com/chamath/status/2029416079781736844
https://x.com/USWREMichael/status/2029539950962626734
https://x.com/addyosmani/status/2029372736267805081
https://github.com/googleworkspace/cli
https://x.com/chamath/status/2029634071966666964
https://www.lloyds.com/about-lloyds/history/lloyds-buildings
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-05/pentagon-says-it-s-told-anthropic-the-firm-is-supply-chain-risk
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/anthropic-nears-20-billion-revenue-run-rate-amid-pentagon-feud