Climate Change Is Stupidly EASY To Stop — Andrew Song, Cofounder of Make Sunsets
Today I’m taking a rare break from AI doom to cover the dumbest kind of doom humanity has ever created for itself: climate change. We’re talking about a problem that costs less than $2 billion per year to solve. For context, that’s what the US spent on COVID relief every 7 hours during the pandemic. Bill Gates could literally solve this himself.My guest Andrew Song runs Make Sunsets, which launches weather balloons filled with sulfur dioxide (SO₂) into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight and cool the planet. It’s the same mechanism volcanoes use—Mount Pinatubo cooled Earth by 0.5°C for a year in 1991. The physics is solid, the cost is trivial, and the coordination problem is nonexistent.So why aren’t we doing it? Because people are squeamish about “playing God” with the atmosphere, even while we’re building superintelligent AI. Because environmentalists would rather scold you into turning off your lights than support a solution that actually works.This conversation changed how I think about climate change. I went from viewing it as this intractable coordination problem to realizing it’s basically already solved—we’re just LARPing that it’s hard! 🙈 If you care about orders of magnitude, this episode will blow your mind. And if you feel guilty about your carbon footprint: you can offset an entire year of typical American energy usage for about 15 cents. Yes, cents.Timestamps* 00:00:00 - Introducing Andrew Song, Cofounder of Make Sunsets* 00:03:08 - Why the company is called “Make Sunsets”* 00:06:16 - What’s Your P(Doom)™ From Climate Change* 00:10:24 - Explaining geoengineering and solar radiation management* 00:16:01 - The SO₂ dial we can turn* 00:22:00 - Where to get SO₂ (gas supply stores, sourcing from oil)* 00:28:44 - Cost calculation: Just $1-2 billion per year* 00:34:15 - “If everyone paid $3 per year”* 00:42:38 - Counterarguments: moral hazard, termination shock* 00:44:21 - Being an energy hog is totally fine* 00:52:16 - What motivated Andrew (his kids, Luke Iseman)* 00:59:09 - “The stupidest problem humanity has created”* 01:11:26 - Offsetting CO₂ from OpenAI’s Stargate* 01:13:38 - Playing God is goodShow NotesMake Sunsets* Website: https://makesunsets.com* Tax-deductible donations (US): https://givebutter.com/makesunsetsPeople Mentioned* Casey Handmer: https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/* Emmett Shear: https://twitter.com/eshear* Palmer Luckey: https://twitter.com/PalmerLuckeyResources Referenced* Book: Termination Shock by Neal Stephenson* Book: The Rational Optimist by Matt Ridley* Book: Enlightenment Now by Steven Pinker* Harvard SCoPEx project (the Bill Gates-funded project that got blocked)* Climeworks (direct air capture company): https://climeworks.comData/Monitoring* NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration): https://www.noaa.gov* ESA Sentinel-5P TROPOMI satellite data---Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
--------
1:17:41
--------
1:17:41
David Deutschian vs. Eliezer Yudkowskian Debate: Will AGI Cooperate With Humanity? — With Brett Hall
I’ve been puzzled by David Deutsch’s AI claims for years. Today I finally had the chance to hash it out: Brett Hall, one of the foremost educators of David Deutsch’s ideas around epistemology & science, was brave enough to debate me!Brett has been immersed in Deutsch’s philosophy since 1997 and teaches it on his Theory of Knowledge podcast, which has been praised by tech luminary Naval Ravikant. He agrees with Deutsch on 99.99% of issues, especially the dismissal of AI as an existential threat.In this debate, I stress-test the Deutschian worldview, and along the way we unpack our diverging views on epistemology, the orthogonality thesis, and pessimism vs optimism.Timestamps0:00 — Debate preview & introducing Brett Hall4:24 — Brett’s opening statement on techno-optimism13:44 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™15:43 — We debate the merits of Bayesian probabilities20:13 — Would Brett sign the AI risk statement?24:44 — Liron declares his “damn good reason” for AI oversight35:54 — Debate milestone: We identify our crux of disagreement!37:29 — Prediction vs prophecy44:28 — The David Deutsch CAPTCHA challenge1:00:41 — What makes humans special?1:15:16 — Reacting to David Deutsch’s recent statements on AGI1:24:04 — Debating what makes humans special1:40:25 — Brett reacts to Roger Penrose’s AI claims1:48:13 — Debating the orthogonality thesis1:56:34 — The powerful AI data center hypothetical2:03:10 — “It is a dumb tool, easily thwarted”2:12:18 — Clash of worldviews: goal-driven vs problem-solving2:25:05 — Ideological Turing test: We summarize each other’s positions2:30:44 — Are doomers just pessimists?Show NotesBrett’s website — https://www.bretthall.orgBrett’s Twitter — https://x.com/TokTeacherThe Deutsch Files by Brett Hall and Naval Ravikant* https://nav.al/deutsch-files-i* https://nav.al/deutsch-files-ii* https://nav.al/deutsch-files-iii* https://nav.al/deutsch-files-ivBooks:* The Fabric of Reality by David Deutsch* The Beginning of Infinity by David Deutsch* Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom* If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Eliezer Yudkowsky---Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
--------
2:37:59
--------
2:37:59
Debating People On The Street About AI Doom
We took Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares’s new book, If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, on the streets to see what regular people think.Do people think that artificial intelligence is a serious existential risk? Are they open to considering the argument before it’s too late? Are they hostile to the idea? Are they totally uninterested?Watch this episode to see the full spectrum of reactions from a representative slice of America!---Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
--------
23:02
--------
23:02
Wes & Dylan Join Doom Debates — Violent Robots, Eliezer Yudkowsky, & Who Has the HIGHEST P(Doom)?!
Welcome to the Doom Debates + Wes Roth + Dylan Curious crossover episode!Wes & Dylan’s host a popular YouTube AI news show that’s better than mainstream media. They interview thought leaders like Prof. Nick Bostrom, Dr. Mike Israetel — and now, yours truly!This episode is Part 2, where Wes & Dylan come on Doom Debates to break down the latest AI news.In Part 1, I went on Wes & Dylan’s channel to talk about my AI doom worries:The only reasonable move is to subscribe to both channels and watch both parts!Timestamps00:00 — Cold open00:45 — Introducing Wes & Dylan & hearing their AI YouTuber origin stories05:38 — What’s Your P(Doom)? ™10:30 — Living with high P(doom)12:10 — AI News Roundup: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies Reactions17:02 — AI Redlines at the UN & risk of AGI authoritarianism26:56 — Robot ‘violence test’29:20 — Anthropic gets honest about job loss impact32:43 — AGI hunger strikes, the rationale for Anthropic protests41:24 — Liron explains his proposal for a safer future, treaty & enforcement debate49:23 — US Government officials ignore scientists and use “catastrophists” pejorative55:59 — Experts’ p(doom) predictions59:41 — Wes gives his take on AI safety warnings1:02:04 — Wrap-up, Subscribe to Wes Roth and Dylan CuriousShow NotesWes & Dylans’s channel — https://www.youtube.com/wesrothIf Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares — https://ifanyonebuildsit.com---Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
--------
1:04:05
--------
1:04:05
The Merch Store Is Open For Business!
I’m excited to announce the launch of Doom Hut, the official Doom Debates merch store!This isn’t just another merch drop. It’s a way to spread an urgent message that humanity faces an imminent risk from superintelligent AI, and we need to build common knowledge about it now.What We’re OfferingThe Doom Hut is the premiere source of “high P(doom) fashion.” We’ve got t-shirts in men’s and women’s styles, tall tees, tote bags, and hats that keep both the sun and the doom out of your eyes.Our signature items are P(doom) pins. Whether your probability of doom is less than 10%, greater than 25%, or anywhere in between, you can represent your assessment with pride.Our shirts feature “Doom Debates” on the front and “What’s your P(doom)?” on the back. It’s a conversation starter that invites questions rather than putting people on the defensive.Why This MattersThis is crunch time. There’s no more time to beat around the bush or pretend everything’s okay.When you wear this merch, you’re not just making a fashion statement. You’re signaling that P(doom) is uncomfortably high and that we need to stop building dangerous AI before we know how to control it.People will wonder what “Doom Debates” means. They’ll see that you’re bold enough to acknowledge the world faces real threats. Maybe they’ll follow your example. Maybe they’ll start asking questions and learning more.Supporting the MissionThe merch store isn’t really about making money for us (we make about $2 per item sold). The show’s production and marketing costs are funded by donations from viewers like you. Visit doomdebates.com/donate to learn more.Donations to Doom Debates are fully tax-deductible through our fiscal sponsor, Manifund.org. You can also support us by becoming a premium subscriber to DoomDebates.com, which helps boost our Substack rankings and visibility.Join the CommunityJoin our Discord community here! It’s a vibrant space where people debate, share memes, discuss new episodes, and talk about where they “get off the doom train.”Moving Forward TogetherThe outpouring of support since we started accepting donations has been incredible. You get what we’re trying to do here—raising awareness and helping the average person understand that AI risk is an imminent threat to them and their loved ones.This is real. This is urgent. And together, we’re moving the Overton window. Thanks for your support. Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe
Canada - english