GoodFellows: Conversations on Economics, History & Geopolitics

After a productive first 100 days after returning to office, President Trump has since hit a rough patch – stubborn inflation (despite an otherwise powerhouse economy), an unpopular war with Iran, setbacks at the Supreme Court, plus growing dissent among congressional Republicans as his party faces the distinct possibility of losing one or both chambers of Congress in November. Has the ever-impulsive, risk-taking Trump lost his political Midas touch, or is he simply yet another president befuddled by a second-term jinx (not to mention a disgruntled electorate)? If Trump is sorely in need of a “win”, will it come on the domestic front or abroad (spoiler alert: look to Cuba)? After that, the fellows discuss whether it was fair play for the American president to intervene in World Cup officiating and the International Olympic Committee to allow Russian athlete to compete for Mother Russia in the 2028 Games, if the war in Ukraine is anywhere close to a tipping point, whether futbol is in fact an expression of socialist convictions (or so New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani believes), and the policy smarts (or a lack thereof) of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ call for a sovereign wealth on AI companies’ stock and how those firms should be addressing the industry’s image problem (the fellows playfully disagreeing on using AI to cheat on schoolwork). 

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On paper, it was a mismatch: a fledgling republic seeking freedom from the world’s mightiest empire. And yet the American Revolution ended with the upstart colonists’ victory over the mighty British military. Rick Atkinson, a military historian and author of a “Revolutionary Trilogy” on the fight for America’s independence, discusses the military tactics, geopolitical shifts, and economic conditions that factored into the war’s outcome. After that, the fellows discuss why serving as the British prime minister has become a game of musical chairs and how Labour lost its way, as well as the rise of “democratic socialism” and the appeal of class warfare and expansive government in the US – most notably, a California ballot initiative that imposes a “wealth tax” on the state’s billionaires.  Finally, in the “lighting round”, John's thoughts on the passing of former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan; H.R.’s take on the Pentagon putting its generals out to pasture; and Niall reflecting on European World Cup fans descending upon the US, only to discover a land of abundance (i.e., plenty of ranch dressing even if there’s not enough beer to go around).

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As the US and Iran prepare to sign a memorandum of understanding halting hostilities in the Middle East, will the agreement hold up for long given fundamental differences over Iran’s nuclear ambitions (another 60 days of negotiating), its funding of terrorist proxies across the region, plus Israel’s actions in Lebanon? If he succeeds in putting Iran in the rear-view window, does President Trump turn his attention to brokering a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine (that war now approaching four years and four months of fighting) as well as ending Cuba’s communist dictatorship? Finally, speaking of invasions, GoodFellows’ resident Scotsman explains the joy of his countrymen’s “Tartan Army” coming to Boston – thousands of kilt-wearing lads and lasses singing, marching and pub-crawling their way through Beantown whilst rooting on a Scottish national team making its first World Cup appearance in this century. 

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In a special “mailbag” episode, Hoover senior fellows Sir Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster answer audience questions. Among the topics (after a brief opening segment devoted to the latest in the Iran-US impasse – aka, “Schrödinger’s ceasefire”): who are today’s great leaders; is “the American experiment” doomed, as some intellectuals posit; China’s move to gold from dollar-denominated securities; the futures of the European Union and the UK’s Reform movement; North Korea’s relative silence; the cooled-down rhetoric of climate change; whether our PhD-wielding historians bother with televised historical dramas; thoughts on gentlemen-scholars’ sartorial style (“buy [clothes] when you’re a graduate student and wear them until they fall apart”); plus managerial lessons to be drawn from the recent successes of Sir Niall’s beloved Arsenal football club. 

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Is it time to rethink the configuration of the US Supreme Court – not nine justices divided along lockstep ideological lines, but three groups of three justices, each clique with a different approach to jurisprudence? So argues court watcher and legal analyst Sarah Isgur, who discusses her new book, Last Branch Standing: A Potentially Surprising, Occasionally Witty Journey Inside Today's Supreme Court, and explains where the justices stand on a series of contentious issues (“birthright citizenship”, the administrative state, abortion, the court’s relationship with an antagonistic president on matters like tariffs and executive authority, plus maintaining a semblance of impartiality in a polarized Washington). After that: the three fellows discuss what’s next in Iran with peace negotiations seemingly at an impasse, what to expect from this week’s US-China summit in Beijing, plus what challenges lie ahead for Hoover fellow Kevin Warsh as he takes over as the Federal Reserve’s new chair. 

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