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Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Jack Farley
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
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261 episodes

  • Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

    Why Andy Constan Says The AI Bubble is in Earnings, Not Price

    2026-05-16 | 33 mins.
    Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm

    Monetary Matters is now streaming daily as part of Monitoring the Situation. Join us live on X and YouTube from 4 to 5 PM ET Monday through Friday @mtsituation for live interviews and analysis breaking down the market’s most important situations. This is recording of a recent live interview from MTS.

    Veteran macro trader Andy Constan joins Monetary Matters live on Monitoring the Situation to discuss why he has 100% confidence that AI stocks are in a bubble. The nuance though is that unlike most bubbles, where the bubble is in unsustainable prices with no earnings, this is a bubble in unsustainable earnings that will eventually fall and make the current somewhat reasonable prices look lofty in hindsight. Constan highlights metrics like the $400 billion in S&P 500 earnings expectations and the over 60% of that is supposed to accrue to AI winners, and argues that based on projected GDP growth that their simply “isn’t enough pie for all of the S&P 500 to eat” without it coming other very important areas of the economy.

    Follow Andy Constan on X: https://x.com/dampedspring

    Follow Jack Farley on X: https://x.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Max Wiethe on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

    Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

    YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Earnings Bubble Thesis

    01:22 Defining a Bubble Regime

    04:02 Past Bubbles and Patterns

    07:57 Why PE Looks Normal

    08:57 GDP Pie Math Reality

    13:06 Unlimited ETFs HFGM

    15:23 AI ROI and Inflation Risks

    18:34 Three Cohorts Funding Compute

    23:36 What a Real Pop Looks Like

    28:22 Timing and Investor Discipline

    30:27 Trading It Collars Not Shorts

    33:13 Closing and Sign Off
  • Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

    “You Don’t Sell Blow-offs” | Andrew Perry on Bullish Technicals of U.S. Stock Market, “Dangerous” Period for Global Equities, and Bull Case for Agricultural Commodities

    2026-05-15 | 59 mins.
    Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN):

    https://teucrium.com/corn

    In this episode of Monetary Matters, host Jack sits down with veteran macro investor Andrew Perry of Macro Pillars. Perry provides a bullish technical outlook for US stocks, offering specific targets for the S&P 500 while warning against shorting the current momentum on a nominal basis. The discussion explores strategic pair trades, specifically being long US equities while shorting energy-dependent nations like Australia and Germany. Perry also explains the macro drivers behind his long positions in agricultural commodities—including corn, wheat, and soybeans—driven by fertilizer stress and geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Listeners will gain deep insights into why the MOVE index and US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements (QRA) are more critical indicators of market liquidity than the traditional VIX. Finally, Perry details the specific yield curve shifts, moving from bear to bull steepeners, that will signal the next major recessionary trade. Recorded May 11, 2026.

    This episode is sponsored by the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN). Download our free eBook, "Why Investors Are  Increasingly Turning to Commodity ETFs," to explore the macro forces shaping commodity markets today. 

    Download the eBook: insights.teucrium.com/why-investors-turning-to-commodity-etfs 

    CORN Fund Page & Prospectus: www.teucrium.com/corn 

    This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. The prospectus is available at  https://teucrium.com/corn.

    Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Commodities and futures generally are volatile, and  instruments whose underlying investments include commodities and futures are not suitable for all investors. Past  performance does not guarantee future results. 

    For further discussion of these and additional risks associated with an investment in the Funds please read the  respective Fund Prospectus before investing. 

    CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT are commodity pools regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading  Commission (CFTC). The Funds do not track the spot price of corn, sugar, soybeans or wheat. These Funds,  which are ETPs, are not a mutual fund or any other type of Investment Company within the meaning of the  Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and are not subject to regulation thereunder. Teucrium Trading,  LLC is the Sponsor for CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT. 

    PINE Distributors LLC is the Marketing Agent for CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT and is not affiliated with  Teucrium Investment Advisors, LLC and Teucrium Trading, LLC. 

    Sources 

    • Fertilizer trade through Strait of Hormuz: International Fertilizer Association (IFA), Global Fertilizer Trade Data; USDA  ERS, Fertilizer Use and Price reports. 

    • Corn as heaviest nitrogen user: USDA Economic Research Service, Fertilizer Use and Price (most recent edition). • Input cost / margin impact and acreage-switching scenarios: Framing is conditional and analytical; not presented as  projections. Consistent with FINRA 2210(d)(1) standards for educational market commentary. 

    • Fund structure: Teucrium Corn Fund Prospectus (most recent effective date). 

    Marketing Agent: PINE Distributors LLC. 

    5324752 

    Sourcing Index 

    • Fertilizer trade through Strait of Hormuz: International Fertilizer Association (IFA), Global Fertilizer Trade Data; USDA  ERS, Fertilizer Use and Price reports. 

    • Corn as heaviest nitrogen user: USDA Economic Research Service, Fertilizer Use and Price (most recent edition). • Input cost / margin impact and acreage-switching scenarios: Framing is conditional and analytical; not presented as  projections. Consistent with FINRA 2210(d)(1) standards for educational market commentary. 

    • Fund structure: Teucrium Corn Fund Prospectus (most recent effective date).
  • Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

    Lyn Alden on Macro Consequences of AI and The Stolgard Incident (Monitoring The Situation Replay)

    2026-05-13 | 50 mins.
    Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm

    Jack Farley and Max Wiethe host Lyn Alden to explore the profound economic shifts driven by AI and the semiconductor industry. Alden compares the current rise of autonomous AI agents to the blue-collar manufacturing shifts of the 1980s, expressing continued bullishness on semiconductors due to physical bottlenecks and immense compute demand. She cautions that while tech hyperscalers remain dominant, their massive capital expenditure requirements and lower switching costs may lead to lower returns on invested capital than seen in previous decades. Regarding digital assets, Alden remains constructive on Bitcoin and moderately bullish on stablecoins, which she views as a vital tool for providing "offshore" banking utility to global users with smartphones. The conversation also highlights a "two-speed" or "K-shaped" economy where record-high stock prices diverge from record-low consumer sentiment due to stagflationary pressures and heavy fiscal spending. Finally, Alden discusses her science fiction novel, “The Stolgard Incident,” which envisions a semi-dystopian 2070s where society grapples with ubiquitous AI, virtual reality escapism, and widening wealth gaps. This originally aired on Monitoring The Situation in late April, see below to tune in. 

    Follow Lyn Alden on X https://x.com/LynAldenContact

    Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/jackfarley96Follow Monitoring The Situation (MTS) on X https://x.com/MTSlive

    Lyn Alden’s book, “The Stolguard Incident,” https://www.amazon.com/Stolguard-Incident-Lyn-Alden/dp/B0GNS9MYB5/ref=sr_1_1?adgrpid=193521879551&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.RJbicCTYIekTrz-Xcqzk7A.nC6zf8DffI2xHZBeqYOHUm48fMahUhOyxmiEmcenTBU&dib_tag=se&hvadid=789707336866&hvdev=c&hvexpln=0&hvlocphy=9060354&hvnetw=g&hvocijid=17622433326543445596--&hvqmt=e&hvrand=17622433326543445596&hvtargid=kwd-2473232811348&hydadcr=17070_13576050_1647189&keywords=the+stolguard+incident&mcid=b89d146b19ee37e6bc43fd9ecdb6775a&qid=1778698355&sr=8-1

     Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

    Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

    YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
  • Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

    Lending Where the Banks Won’t Go: What’s Fueling Europe’s Growing Real Estate Private Credit Market?

    2026-05-12 | 1h 2 mins.
    Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://fundrise.com/mm

    In this episode of Other People's Money, Thomas Lloyd-Jones, Co-founder and CIO of Zenzic Capital, joins the show to unpack the nuances of the real estate private credit market. He explains how the media often conflates direct lending with the broader asset class, overlooking real estate and asset-backed lending. Lloyd-Jones details how increasing banking regulations are forcing traditional lenders to retreat, creating a widening gap for opportunistic credit funds to step in.

    This podcast is for informational purposes only and not an inducement to invest with Zenzic Capital. Zenzic Capital’s investment products are limited to professional clients only. The information within this podcast should not be relied upon as tax, legal or investment advice.

    Learn more about Zenzic Capital: https://zenziccapital.com/

    Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

    Follow Other People’s Money on:



    Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

    Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

    YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

    X https://x.com/opmpod

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro

    01:52 Private Credit Breakdown

    03:32 BDCs And Redemptions

    06:35 Allocation Failure Debate

    08:47 Regulation and Fragmentation

    12:07 Basel III Shift

    14:10 Fundrise Income Fund

    15:10 Systemic Risk and Leverage

    17:36 Banks’ Retreat is Opportunity

    20:56 Good vs. Bad Risk Premia

    24:39 Senior Finance

    28:44 Downside Protection and Spotting Bad Deals

    37:48 Macro Matters for Exits

    40:13 Finding Fixable Distress

    43:22 Geopolitics and Rate Shock

    47:01 Preferred Equity Playbook

    51:49 When Development Risk Pays

    54:52 Student Housing Reality Check

    59:40 Macro Allocation Framework

    01:01:59 Conclusion
  • Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

    Why Generative AI Still Can’t Trade | David Wright on How Quant Alpha Actually Is Done With Machine Learning, Decision Trees, and Gradient Boosting

    2026-05-10 | 38 mins.
    This interview is brought to you by Pictet Asset Management. To learn more about Pictet AI-Enhanced  International Equity ETF ($PQNT), click here: https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/

    To learn more about Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF ($PQUS), click here: https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/ 

    Jack Farley sits down with David Wright, co-head of Quantitative Investments at Pictet Asset Management, to  discuss the machine learning techniques his team uses in their $30 billion quant franchise, and the degree to  which AI has impacted serious quantitative investing. Wright explains why he prefers to utilize many decision trees and use gradient boosting rather than Generative AI to generate return forecasts, citing the need to avoid  "hallucinations" and ensure models remain interpretable. The conversation explores their sophisticated  investment process, which analyzes over 400 features, including accounting data, market trends, and analyst  sentiment, to predict relative stock performance over 20-day horizons. These strategies, which now are included  in new ETFs $PQNT (Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF) and $PQUS (Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity  ETF) are designed as "passive replacements," aiming to maintain a Beta of 1.0 while aiming to deliver an  additional 1–2% annual outperformance over the relevant benchmarks, S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE indices. Finally,  Wright addresses the common "black box" misconception of quantitative finance, advocating instead for a "crystal  box" approach that provides full transparency into the economic rationale behind every trade. Recorded April 21,  2026.

    For important information about the fund, please click: https://etf.am.pictet.com/” 

    Important Information 

    Before investing, carefully consider the fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. This and  other information can be found in the fund’s prospectus or, if available, the summary prospectus, which  may be obtained by calling (855) 994-4778 or visiting www.pictet.com/etf. Read it carefully before investing.  (In Italic or Bold)  

    Investing in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The fund's principal  investment risks include Artificial Intelligence Models and Data Risk, Non-Diversification Risk, Convertible  Securities Risk, Rights and Warrants Risk, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Risk and Sustainability & ESG  Data Risk. For additional information about these and other fund risks, please refer to the "Principal Investment  Risks" section of the prospectus. 

    ETFs are subject to additional risks that do not apply to conventional mutual funds, including the risks that the  market price of an ETF's shares may trade at a premium or discount to its net asset value, an active secondary  trading market may not develop or be maintained, or trading may be halted by the exchange in which they trade,  which may impact an ETF's ability to sell its shares. Shares of any ETF are bought and sold at market price (not  NAV) and are not individually redeemed from the ETF. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns. 

    Foreside fund services, LLC, distributor. 

    Definitions of terms used in the interview: 

    1. S&P 500 Index 

    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly  traded companies in the United States. It is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities.  Because it is weighted by market value, larger companies have a greater impact on the index's performance than  smaller ones. 

    2. MSCI EAFE Index 

    The MSCI EAFE Index is a stock market index that tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap securities  across developed markets around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The acronym stands for Europe,  Australasia, and the Far East. It is commonly used as a benchmark for international equity funds.

    3. Alpha 

    Alpha represents the "excess return" of an investment relative to the return of a benchmark index. It is a measure  of performance on a risk-adjusted basis. "Positive Alpha: indicates the investment outperformed its benchmark  after accounting for risk and "Negative Alpha" indicates the investment underperformed relative to the  benchmark. 

    4. Beta 

    Beta measures the volatility—or systematic risk—of a security or portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole  (usually the S&P 500, which has a Beta of 1.0) A Beta > 1.0 indicates the investment is more volatile than the  market (e.g., if the market rises 10%, the investment might rise 12%) A Beta < 1.0 indicates the investment is less  volatile than the market (e.g., if the market falls 10%, the investment might only fall 8%). 

    5. Basis Points (bps) 

    A Basis Point is a standard unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is  equal to 1/100th of 1%, or 0.01%.
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About Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.

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