Craft Politics

Plus, Carney's pivot on China, and more Tory defections in the UK.
The gang is back after a winter break—and they’re diving headfirst into the chaos that kicked off 2026. Joseph, Holly, and Andrew cover the escalating crisis over Trump’s Greenland obsession, a wave of Tory defections to Reform UK, Canada’s pivot to China, and some economic mood swings that don’t line up with the data. 🔥 In This Episode🧊 The Greenland Crisis Escalates- Trump threatens tariffs, floats military use, and posts AI images claiming US ownership- Is NATO broken beyond repair?- Why Canada and Europe may now have to act like middle powers—for real- “Trump always chickens out” or “this time it’s real”?🇨🇦 Canada’s Pivot to China- Mark Carney strikes a historic tariff deal with China- EVs and canola in, geopolitical certainty… TBD- What it signals about the new world order—and how Doug Ford feels about it🏛 UK Defections & Tory Discipline- Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell jump ship to Reform- Kemi Badenoch clamps down: decisive leadership or brand dilution?- What this means for the future of Reform—and the shape of the Conservative Party📉 Vibes vs. Reality- Consumer confidence is up among younger voters—while older voters are gloomier than ever- Is this a vibescession or just a new kind of political identity?⸻🧠 Quick HitsWord of the Week:Vibescession — The economic slowdown that exists mostly in public perception.Number of the Week:$125 million — The estimated cost of renaming the US Department of Defense to the Department of War. Because priorities.🎙 Featuring:Joseph LavoieHolly Mumby-CroftAndrew Percy

Photo by Visit Greenland on Unsplash

It’s our final episode of 2025 — and we’re going out with a bang (and a beer). Joseph, Holly, and Andrew reunite after a winter bug-induced hiatus to bring you our first-ever year-end special. We make bold predictions (that we’ll surely regret), hand out highly scientific year-end awards, play games, roast each other’s beer tasting notes, and toast to the chaos that was.
It’s everything you’d expect from Craft Politics — unfiltered, occasionally insightful, and always a bit ridiculous.
🗳 Rapid-Fire Reflections:
One word to sum up the political year? Fruitless, chaotic… and a bit shit.

The story everyone thinks they understood?
Doug Ford’s World Series ad

Trump’s tariffs

Labour’s tax strategy — and still nobody gets it.

What we’re all pretending won’t matter in 2026, but will?
Alberta separatism

UK house prices

defence spending… and apparently, Andrew’s age.

🔹 Serious Predictions:
Canada heads to the polls — and the Conservatives win (Joseph)

Conservative leadership could change… in Canada (Andrew)

Reform UK will peak in spring… then fade (Holly)

🌶 Spicy Predictions:
The Parti Québécois doesn’t win in Quebec — CAQ makes a surprise comeback (Joseph)

Zack Polanski’s meteoric Green Party rise hits a bump (Holly)

Something very spicy happens in Labour ranks (Andrew… vaguely)

🕵️‍♀️ Quiet Shifts to Watch:
Canada’s election becomes about chaos vs. control

Doug Ford and Donald Trump become unlikely friends

Joseph steps down from the podcast due to… “an incident”

📊 Real Headline or Fake?
Doug Ford on The Amazing Race?

Signal-gate?

Andrew Percy in the Lords?
Let’s just say, trust no one — especially Grockipedia.

🗣️ Who Said It?
“I don’t particularly want to wipe someone’s bum”

“The best is yet to come… get the bungee harness ready”

“I originally saw AI as an efficiency gain. I was wrong.”
(Many of your favourites are quoted, willingly or not.)

🍺 Beer Notes or Erotic Fiction?
Andrew and Holly put Joseph’s Untappd beer reviews under the microscope.
Did he really say a beer had a “beautiful head”? Yes.
Did he really sneak one into a soccer match? Also yes.
Did any of it make sense? You be the judge
🏆 Year-End Awards
Most Predictable Surprise: Angela Rayner resigns

Best Attempt at Spin: Signal-gate

Worst Use of a Chart: Lib Dems still doing Lib Dem things

Phrase We Never Want to Hear Again: “Looks gorgeous. Tastes like a marvel.”

The team is back in London — Joseph is enjoying the rare British sunshine, while Holly and Andrew are soaking up the political chaos. This week, we unpack the Labour government’s tough week of headlines and hard truths: from a post-budget messaging mess to a controversial shake-up of the UK justice system — and a surprise pipeline agreement in Canada.
📉 Labour’s Budget Blunders: ‘Did She Mislead the Public?’
We revisit last week’s autumn budget after a week of unravelling

Rachel Reeves is under pressure over whether she misrepresented the fiscal headroom

Communications have spiralled into a defensive posture: “Did she lie?” becomes the only story

Holly shares her three-day rule: every budget turns to chaos within 72 hours — and this one delivered

⚖️ Trial Without Jury? The Justice Reform Turning Heads
David Lammy’s proposal to remove jury trials for offences under 3 years sparks a major backlash

Critics say it’s an attack on a centuries-old principle — and unlikely to solve case backlogs

Andrew questions whether judges are being politicized, while Holly warns of a “slippery slope”

Joseph notes this is another Labour announcement suffering from poor rollout and zero preconditioning

🇨🇦 Alberta’s Pipeline Deal with Ottawa: Real Progress or Political Cover?
Joseph breaks down the new MOU between Alberta and the federal government

The deal sets the stage for a new west coast pipeline — without consulting BC

Premier Eby is furious, Carney is betting big, and Danielle Smith is walking a tightrope

Andrew and Holly react to whether this kind of high-stakes, nation-building compromise could ever work in UK politics

We almost had a new entry for “Lipstick on a Gerbil” — our regular feature on political spin — but in the spirit of seasonal generosity, Andrew suggests giving UK ministers a break…for now.

With Celia McSwaine & Christine Quigley

The Labour government dropped its first full budget — and everyone’s claiming victory… or crying foul. This week, Joseph and Andrew are joined by Celia McSwaine (former Treasury SpAd) and Christine Quigley (Labour strategist) to unpack what it all means: from fiscal drag and frozen thresholds to the abolition of the two-child benefit cap and Kemi Badenoch’s show-stealing rebuttal.

We cover the politics, the process, and the problems still ahead.
💸 In This Episode:

📊 Labour’s Balancing Act
• “A budget where everyone gets something… and everyone pays for it.”
• Massive welfare spend, frozen tax thresholds, and the return of fiscal drag
• Why the OBR, not the Commons, may be in charge now

👶 The Two-Child Benefit Cap Is Gone
• Labour says it will lift 450,000 children out of poverty
• Critics say it penalizes middle earners and disincentivizes work
• Is this Labour morality — or Labour survival?

🎭 Budget Theatre: Kemi’s Big Moment
• Rachel Reeves made history — and played it safe
• Kemi Badenoch’s “call and response” rebuttal caught fire on social media
• From “mansplaining” to broken promises: who landed the bigger punch?

🧮 Behind the Curtain: How Budgets Get Made
• Celia McSwaine shares what it’s really like crafting a UK budget
• Why Rachel Reeves leaked everything
• And how “death by a thousand cuts” might come back to bite

⸻

🗞 Headlines of the Week:
• The Sun: “Benefit Street Budget”
• The Telegraph: “A Spiteful Raid on Middle England”
• The Mirror: “A Budget with a Labour Heart”
• The Daily Star: “The Budget That Stole Christmas”

With special guest Alex MuirIn this week’s interview edition, Joseph Lavoie and Andrew Percy sit down with Canadian-American pollster and strategist Alex Muir to map out the real factions driving the MAGA movement — and why Canada is dangerously unprepared for a second Trump administration.Muir doesn’t pull punches.“The America we grew up with doesn’t exist anymore. In the same way that the Canada I grew up in doesn’t exist anymore.”⸻🔥 In This Episode📌 The Seven MAGA FactionsAlex walks us through the internal tribes of the America First movement — including: • MAGA Populists • Institutional MAGA • Traditional Business Conservatives • Tech Libertarians • Christian Nationalists • Isolationists & Neocons • The Family Court (Trump’s inner circle)🧠 Shared Beliefs That Bind ThemFrom the branding genius of Make America Great Again to the cultural rage at a world that “disrespects” America, Alex explains:“Foreigners need to know their place.”🧊 The Chilling Truth for CanadaDespite trade, shared security, and years of goodwill:“Canada doesn’t have leverage. It has convenience value.”🇨🇦 What Canada Gets Wrong • Canadian politicians assume a return to “normal” is inevitable • The embassy lacks deep MAGA relationships • Most outreach is happening in the wrong cities (DC, NY, LA)“They don’t care about Canada. They don’t think they need to.”⸻🎯 Hard Truths About Trump 2.0Unlike the first time: • They’re ready to govern • They’ve written executive orders in advance • They’ve mapped out personnel, departments, and state-level pipelines“Trump is no longer isolated in Washington.”And if you think this all ends when Trump does:“The next thing will be more ideological, more effective — and worse for Canada.”⸻💡 A Strategic Wake-Up CallAlex shares a clear message for Canada:“Want the Trump administration’s attention? Have you considered buying $100 million of his crypto?”…And why the work to build relationships must start now, especially with: • CPAC • Heritage Action • Turning Point • The Danube Institute • Texas & Florida power bases