Craft Politics

This week on Craft Politics, a sneak peek from Joseph's new show, Masters in Public Affairs.Episode 3 goes deep on Frank Luntz's Words That Work — the book that argues your message doesn't matter nearly as much as what your audience does with it after it leaves your mouth.In this episode:- Why Henry Kissinger's biggest regret was a word he didn't chooseThe core principle: communication is determined by the receiver, not the sender- How single-word changes moved public opinion by double digits- Four mental models for designing messages that actually land- Where practitioners misread Luntz — and the honest limits of language- How this connects to Lippmann and McRaney from earlier in the seriesAbout Masters in Public Affairs:A new show where Joseph goes deep on one foundational book per episode, extracts the durable ideas, and translates them into mental models public affairs practitioners can use. If you enjoy this episode, subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

The week started with breaking news: CPC MP Matt Jeneroux crosses the floor to join the Liberal caucus — the third Conservative to do so in recent months. Joseph and Andrew unpack what it means for the Liberals' path to a majority, whether it takes a 2026 election off the table, and why Mark Carney keeps defying conventional political logic.

Then, Canada's new defence industrial strategy gets the full treatment: half a trillion dollars in procurement, 70% Canadian content targets, and the messy gap between announcements and delivery.

The episode closes across the pond, where Keir Starmer has now executed over a dozen major U-turns — including reversing a plan to delay local elections, days after promising no more reversals. Joseph and Andrew compare approval ratings that tell two very different stories about what non-politician leaders look like when they work, and when they don't.

Key Takeaways

- Matt Jeneroux's floor crossing puts the Liberals within striking distance of a one-seat majority, pending three outstanding by-elections — one of which was previously decided by a single vote.

- With a potential majority in reach and strong polling, the political case for a 2026 snap election is weaker than it was a week ago; Carney appears more interested in building a track record than capitalizing on a polling window.

- Canada's new defense industrial strategy earmarks over $500B in procurement, aims to hit NATO's 2% GDP target ahead of schedule, and sets a goal of 5% by 2035 — but the real test is whether a new procurement agency can cut through decades of dysfunction.

- Carney's appointment of Janice Charette as chief trade negotiator with the U.S -- we're big fans.

- Starmer's approval rating has hit record lows — negative 47% — worse than any sitting British prime minister in polling history; the contrast with Carney's numbers is striking and worth understanding.
- The local elections U-turn is particularly damaging because it came days after Starmer explicitly ruled out more reversals; Reform UK forcing the government's hand via a legal challenge compounds the optics.

Chapters

0:00 — Welcome back + Alberta deep dive reaction
1:30 — Matt Jeneroux crosses the floor: what it means and why the Liberals wanted him
5:00 — Updated election outlook: is 2026 still happening?
8:30 — Mark Carney's governing style and why he keeps defying political convention
10:30 — Janice Charette named Canada's chief U.S. trade negotiator
14:00 — Canada's defense industrial strategy: half a trillion dollars and 70% Canadian procurement
19:30 — Keir Starmer reverses course on local elections — U-turn number 12+
23:30 — Approval ratings compared: Carney vs. Starmer
29:00 — Tumbler Ridge, partisan unity, and a moment worth noticing
32:00 — Wrap-up

Keywords
Matt Jeneroux floor crossing, Canadian federal politics 2026, Mark Carney majority, Liberal caucus, Canadian defense procurement, NATO spending Canada, Janice Charette, trade negotiator, Canada-US relations, Keir Starmer U-turns, UK local elections 2025, Starmer approval ratings, Reform UK, Craft Politics podcast

Alberta may be heading toward a citizen-initiated referendum on independence from Canada. Dave Cournoyer — who has covered Alberta politics for over two decades — joins Joseph and Andrew to unpack how the province's separatist movement evolved from a fringe cottage industry into an organized force embedded within the governing United Conservative Party. The conversation covers the deep historical grievances between Alberta and Ottawa, how opposition to COVID-19 public health measures became the organizing catalyst for today's separatist groups, Premier Danielle Smith's increasingly difficult balancing act, and the urgent question at the centre of it all: who is going to lead the pro-Canada campaign — and do they even have the infrastructure to win?Takeaways- Alberta separatism isn't new, but this iteration is different. The current movement organized around opposition to COVID-19 public health measures, spent years building grassroots networks in rural Alberta, and has now embedded itself within the governing UCP's riding associations and activist base.- Pollster Janet Brown identifies three groups of Albertans on separation: roughly a quarter to a third who support it, a third who are unhappy with Ottawa but don't want to leave, and a quarter to a third who are firmly pro-Canada.- The Alberta Prosperity Project needs approximately 178,000 signatures by May to trigger a referendum. The pro-Canada Forever Canadian campaign collected 456,000 signatures — but a signature campaign and a referendum campaign are very different things.- Danielle Smith's "sovereign Alberta within a united Canada" positioning has worked so far, but a binary referendum question will force her to choose a side.- Three potential pro-Canada leaders have emerged — Thomas Lukaszuk, Jason Kenney, and Naheed Nenshi — but their relationships are fraught and there is no unified campaign infrastructure.- Andrew draws direct parallels to Brexit and Scotland's independence referendum: the leave side runs an aspirational campaign, the stay side gets trapped in "project fear," and a referendum legitimizes the question regardless of outcome.- Foreign interference is a serious wildcard. Separatist leaders have claimed meetings with the US State Department, and senior US officials have publicly commented on Alberta separatism.- Dave's assessment: a referendum held today would lose decisively. A referendum held 10 months from now, in an unpredictable campaign environment, is a different story entirely.Chapters00:00 Introduction to Alberta's Political Landscape02:50 Historical Grievances and Alberta's Identity05:42 The Trudeau Legacy and Its Impact on Alberta08:10 The Rise of Alberta Separatism11:11 The Role of the Alberta Prosperity Project13:46 Current Political Dynamics and the UCP16:47 Referendums as a Political Tool19:13 Future Implications for Alberta's Governance26:56 The Dangers of Referenda30:00 Legitimizing Separatism31:47 The Pro-Canada Campaign Challenge35:46 Key Figures in the Pro-Canada Movement39:59 Foreign Interference and Its Implications44:46 The Future of Alberta's Political Landscape

Holly's out this week. Andrew claims she's started a rival podcast called "Raft Politics." We soldier on anyway.
What We Covered
UK: Starmer's crumbling premiership. The Mandelson crisis has triggered a cascade — chief of staff gone, comms director gone, cabinet secretary potentially next. Scottish Labour's leader publicly called for Starmer to resign. The leadership contest seems to be happening already; Starmer just hasn't recognized he's toast. Andrew's take from the halls of Westminster: Labour MPs are depressed. Turns out governing is hard.
Canada: Poilievre's leadership math problem. He secured 87.4% at the leadership review — no surprise. But his personal approval keeps dropping while party polling stays stable. Six in ten Canadians say they're satisfied with Carney. The question now: can Poilievre close that gap before Carney calls an election?
Chart of the week: Polymarket on election timing. 44% chance of a Canadian election by June 30th — and trending up. We debate whether the Liberals should go early while the numbers look good, or whether snap elections have a way of backfiring spectacularly. (See: UK 2017.)

Quebec represents 23% of Canada's population and 20% of GDP. If it separated — which is back on the table for the first time in a generation — it would be like the UK losing Scotland, except with a larger economy.
The last referendum in 1995? The "no" side won by 54,288 votes. Half a percent. Thirty years later, the separatist Parti Québécois is leading the polls with a commitment to hold another referendum by 2030.
We brought in Kevin Paquette, a colleague at Crestview who was president of the CAQ youth wing during the party's rise, to make sense of what's actually happening.
What We Covered
The collapse of the third way. François Legault's CAQ offered Quebec nationalists a deal: protect the French language, get more autonomy, skip the referendum drama. The party went from 90 seats in 2022 to polling at near-extinction today.
Support for the PQ doesn't mean support for sovereignty. Roughly 30% of current PQ voters would vote no in a referendum. People are parking votes with the PQ because they're fed up with everyone else.
The Montreal-regions divide. Elections aren't won in Montreal. They're won in the francophone regions where people feel increasingly disconnected from a metropolitan core that doesn't share their lived experience.
The Supreme Court wildcard. The upcoming decision on Bill 21 and the notwithstanding clause could hand the PQ a narrative that writes itself: we tried to make Canada work, and Canada said no.
Key Insight
Kevin's prediction: minority government, regardless of who wins. Both the CAQ and Liberals are picking new leaders months before the October 2026 election while the separatists cruise in the polls. A third referendum loss would end Quebec's leverage game with Ottawa permanently — which means nationalists may not actually want a referendum they might lose.
Guest
Kevin Paquette — public affairs consultant at Crestview Strategy, former CAQ youth wing president (2017–2019), and sharp observer of Quebec's regional-urban divide.