Craft Politics

Alberta may be heading toward a citizen-initiated referendum on independence from Canada. Dave Cournoyer — who has covered Alberta politics for over two decades — joins Joseph and Andrew to unpack how the province's separatist movement evolved from a fringe cottage industry into an organized force embedded within the governing United Conservative Party. The conversation covers the deep historical grievances between Alberta and Ottawa, how opposition to COVID-19 public health measures became the organizing catalyst for today's separatist groups, Premier Danielle Smith's increasingly difficult balancing act, and the urgent question at the centre of it all: who is going to lead the pro-Canada campaign — and do they even have the infrastructure to win?Takeaways- Alberta separatism isn't new, but this iteration is different. The current movement organized around opposition to COVID-19 public health measures, spent years building grassroots networks in rural Alberta, and has now embedded itself within the governing UCP's riding associations and activist base.- Pollster Janet Brown identifies three groups of Albertans on separation: roughly a quarter to a third who support it, a third who are unhappy with Ottawa but don't want to leave, and a quarter to a third who are firmly pro-Canada.- The Alberta Prosperity Project needs approximately 178,000 signatures by May to trigger a referendum. The pro-Canada Forever Canadian campaign collected 456,000 signatures — but a signature campaign and a referendum campaign are very different things.- Danielle Smith's "sovereign Alberta within a united Canada" positioning has worked so far, but a binary referendum question will force her to choose a side.- Three potential pro-Canada leaders have emerged — Thomas Lukaszuk, Jason Kenney, and Naheed Nenshi — but their relationships are fraught and there is no unified campaign infrastructure.- Andrew draws direct parallels to Brexit and Scotland's independence referendum: the leave side runs an aspirational campaign, the stay side gets trapped in "project fear," and a referendum legitimizes the question regardless of outcome.- Foreign interference is a serious wildcard. Separatist leaders have claimed meetings with the US State Department, and senior US officials have publicly commented on Alberta separatism.- Dave's assessment: a referendum held today would lose decisively. A referendum held 10 months from now, in an unpredictable campaign environment, is a different story entirely.Chapters00:00 Introduction to Alberta's Political Landscape02:50 Historical Grievances and Alberta's Identity05:42 The Trudeau Legacy and Its Impact on Alberta08:10 The Rise of Alberta Separatism11:11 The Role of the Alberta Prosperity Project13:46 Current Political Dynamics and the UCP16:47 Referendums as a Political Tool19:13 Future Implications for Alberta's Governance26:56 The Dangers of Referenda30:00 Legitimizing Separatism31:47 The Pro-Canada Campaign Challenge35:46 Key Figures in the Pro-Canada Movement39:59 Foreign Interference and Its Implications44:46 The Future of Alberta's Political Landscape

Holly's out this week. Andrew claims she's started a rival podcast called "Raft Politics." We soldier on anyway.
What We Covered
UK: Starmer's crumbling premiership. The Mandelson crisis has triggered a cascade — chief of staff gone, comms director gone, cabinet secretary potentially next. Scottish Labour's leader publicly called for Starmer to resign. The leadership contest seems to be happening already; Starmer just hasn't recognized he's toast. Andrew's take from the halls of Westminster: Labour MPs are depressed. Turns out governing is hard.
Canada: Poilievre's leadership math problem. He secured 87.4% at the leadership review — no surprise. But his personal approval keeps dropping while party polling stays stable. Six in ten Canadians say they're satisfied with Carney. The question now: can Poilievre close that gap before Carney calls an election?
Chart of the week: Polymarket on election timing. 44% chance of a Canadian election by June 30th — and trending up. We debate whether the Liberals should go early while the numbers look good, or whether snap elections have a way of backfiring spectacularly. (See: UK 2017.)

Quebec represents 23% of Canada's population and 20% of GDP. If it separated — which is back on the table for the first time in a generation — it would be like the UK losing Scotland, except with a larger economy.
The last referendum in 1995? The "no" side won by 54,288 votes. Half a percent. Thirty years later, the separatist Parti Québécois is leading the polls with a commitment to hold another referendum by 2030.
We brought in Kevin Paquette, a colleague at Crestview who was president of the CAQ youth wing during the party's rise, to make sense of what's actually happening.
What We Covered
The collapse of the third way. François Legault's CAQ offered Quebec nationalists a deal: protect the French language, get more autonomy, skip the referendum drama. The party went from 90 seats in 2022 to polling at near-extinction today.
Support for the PQ doesn't mean support for sovereignty. Roughly 30% of current PQ voters would vote no in a referendum. People are parking votes with the PQ because they're fed up with everyone else.
The Montreal-regions divide. Elections aren't won in Montreal. They're won in the francophone regions where people feel increasingly disconnected from a metropolitan core that doesn't share their lived experience.
The Supreme Court wildcard. The upcoming decision on Bill 21 and the notwithstanding clause could hand the PQ a narrative that writes itself: we tried to make Canada work, and Canada said no.
Key Insight
Kevin's prediction: minority government, regardless of who wins. Both the CAQ and Liberals are picking new leaders months before the October 2026 election while the separatists cruise in the polls. A third referendum loss would end Quebec's leverage game with Ottawa permanently — which means nationalists may not actually want a referendum they might lose.
Guest
Kevin Paquette — public affairs consultant at Crestview Strategy, former CAQ youth wing president (2017–2019), and sharp observer of Quebec's regional-urban divide.

This week the team dissects Prime Minister Mark Carney's headline-grabbing Davos speech, Trump's inflammatory comments about NATO allies in Afghanistan, the Labour Party's decision to block Andy Burnham from standing in a by-election, and the continuing exodus of Conservative MPs to Reform UK.
Plus: a deep dive into Trump's collapsing poll numbers across key demographics.
Topics Covered
1. Carney's Davos Speech — A "Rupture, Not a Transition"Mark Carney delivered a major address at the World Economic Forum arguing the post-Cold War rules-based order is no longer functioning. He urged middle powers to band together, warning "if you're not at the table, you're on the menu." The speech earned a rare standing ovation and continues making headlines a week later. Andrew draws parallels to the pre-WWI environment: militarism, alliances, imperialism, nationalism, and significant individuals.
2. Trump Rewrites Afghanistan HistoryTrump claimed NATO allies "stayed a little back, a little off the front lines" in Afghanistan — a statement contradicted by the 457 British and 158 Canadian deaths in the conflict. The hosts note Article 5 has only ever been invoked once: by the United States after 9/11, with allies responding. The King reportedly reached out, and Trump has since walked back the comments.
3. Andy Burnham Blocked from By-ElectionLabour's NEC prevented Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in the Denton and Gorton by-election, citing the cost of a mayoral by-election. The hosts see it as a convenient mechanism to keep a potential Starmer rival out of Parliament — but note Labour may now lose the seat to Reform anyway.
4. Suella Braverman Defects to ReformFormer Home Secretary Suella Braverman became the third Conservative MP in a week to join Reform UK, following Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell. Holly notes her defection speech was notably polished and felt "authentic" given her long-held positions.
5. Trump's Polling CollapseJoseph shares data showing Trump losing support across nearly every demographic since 2024 — particularly among non-white voters and 18-29 year-olds. The hosts speculate whether the Minneapolis ICE retreat signals the first time Trump has recognized his base moving away from him on an issue.
Word of the Week: "Big Daddy Carns"Coined during the 2025 campaign when a woman heckled Carney with "Lead us, Big Daddy!" — now shorthand for his blend of "cheeky, charming competence."
Notable Quotes
"The rules-based order has been dead for quite a while now... we've finally accepted it."
"We're trying to rationalize something that's irrational. Disorder reigns."
"The only time Article 5 has been used was in Afghanistan — by the United States."

Plus, Carney's pivot on China, and more Tory defections in the UK.
The gang is back after a winter break—and they’re diving headfirst into the chaos that kicked off 2026. Joseph, Holly, and Andrew cover the escalating crisis over Trump’s Greenland obsession, a wave of Tory defections to Reform UK, Canada’s pivot to China, and some economic mood swings that don’t line up with the data. 🔥 In This Episode🧊 The Greenland Crisis Escalates- Trump threatens tariffs, floats military use, and posts AI images claiming US ownership- Is NATO broken beyond repair?- Why Canada and Europe may now have to act like middle powers—for real- “Trump always chickens out” or “this time it’s real”?🇨🇦 Canada’s Pivot to China- Mark Carney strikes a historic tariff deal with China- EVs and canola in, geopolitical certainty… TBD- What it signals about the new world order—and how Doug Ford feels about it🏛 UK Defections & Tory Discipline- Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell jump ship to Reform- Kemi Badenoch clamps down: decisive leadership or brand dilution?- What this means for the future of Reform—and the shape of the Conservative Party📉 Vibes vs. Reality- Consumer confidence is up among younger voters—while older voters are gloomier than ever- Is this a vibescession or just a new kind of political identity?⸻🧠 Quick HitsWord of the Week:Vibescession — The economic slowdown that exists mostly in public perception.Number of the Week:$125 million — The estimated cost of renaming the US Department of Defense to the Department of War. Because priorities.🎙 Featuring:Joseph LavoieHolly Mumby-CroftAndrew Percy

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