Craft Politics

Quebec represents 23% of Canada's population and 20% of GDP. If it separated — which is back on the table for the first time in a generation — it would be like the UK losing Scotland, except with a larger economy.
The last referendum in 1995? The "no" side won by 54,288 votes. Half a percent. Thirty years later, the separatist Parti Québécois is leading the polls with a commitment to hold another referendum by 2030.
We brought in Kevin Paquette, a colleague at Crestview who was president of the CAQ youth wing during the party's rise, to make sense of what's actually happening.
What We Covered
The collapse of the third way. François Legault's CAQ offered Quebec nationalists a deal: protect the French language, get more autonomy, skip the referendum drama. The party went from 90 seats in 2022 to polling at near-extinction today.
Support for the PQ doesn't mean support for sovereignty. Roughly 30% of current PQ voters would vote no in a referendum. People are parking votes with the PQ because they're fed up with everyone else.
The Montreal-regions divide. Elections aren't won in Montreal. They're won in the francophone regions where people feel increasingly disconnected from a metropolitan core that doesn't share their lived experience.
The Supreme Court wildcard. The upcoming decision on Bill 21 and the notwithstanding clause could hand the PQ a narrative that writes itself: we tried to make Canada work, and Canada said no.
Key Insight
Kevin's prediction: minority government, regardless of who wins. Both the CAQ and Liberals are picking new leaders months before the October 2026 election while the separatists cruise in the polls. A third referendum loss would end Quebec's leverage game with Ottawa permanently — which means nationalists may not actually want a referendum they might lose.
Guest
Kevin Paquette — public affairs consultant at Crestview Strategy, former CAQ youth wing president (2017–2019), and sharp observer of Quebec's regional-urban divide.

This week the team dissects Prime Minister Mark Carney's headline-grabbing Davos speech, Trump's inflammatory comments about NATO allies in Afghanistan, the Labour Party's decision to block Andy Burnham from standing in a by-election, and the continuing exodus of Conservative MPs to Reform UK.
Plus: a deep dive into Trump's collapsing poll numbers across key demographics.
Topics Covered
1. Carney's Davos Speech — A "Rupture, Not a Transition"Mark Carney delivered a major address at the World Economic Forum arguing the post-Cold War rules-based order is no longer functioning. He urged middle powers to band together, warning "if you're not at the table, you're on the menu." The speech earned a rare standing ovation and continues making headlines a week later. Andrew draws parallels to the pre-WWI environment: militarism, alliances, imperialism, nationalism, and significant individuals.
2. Trump Rewrites Afghanistan HistoryTrump claimed NATO allies "stayed a little back, a little off the front lines" in Afghanistan — a statement contradicted by the 457 British and 158 Canadian deaths in the conflict. The hosts note Article 5 has only ever been invoked once: by the United States after 9/11, with allies responding. The King reportedly reached out, and Trump has since walked back the comments.
3. Andy Burnham Blocked from By-ElectionLabour's NEC prevented Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in the Denton and Gorton by-election, citing the cost of a mayoral by-election. The hosts see it as a convenient mechanism to keep a potential Starmer rival out of Parliament — but note Labour may now lose the seat to Reform anyway.
4. Suella Braverman Defects to ReformFormer Home Secretary Suella Braverman became the third Conservative MP in a week to join Reform UK, following Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell. Holly notes her defection speech was notably polished and felt "authentic" given her long-held positions.
5. Trump's Polling CollapseJoseph shares data showing Trump losing support across nearly every demographic since 2024 — particularly among non-white voters and 18-29 year-olds. The hosts speculate whether the Minneapolis ICE retreat signals the first time Trump has recognized his base moving away from him on an issue.
Word of the Week: "Big Daddy Carns"Coined during the 2025 campaign when a woman heckled Carney with "Lead us, Big Daddy!" — now shorthand for his blend of "cheeky, charming competence."
Notable Quotes
"The rules-based order has been dead for quite a while now... we've finally accepted it."
"We're trying to rationalize something that's irrational. Disorder reigns."
"The only time Article 5 has been used was in Afghanistan — by the United States."

Plus, Carney's pivot on China, and more Tory defections in the UK.
The gang is back after a winter break—and they’re diving headfirst into the chaos that kicked off 2026. Joseph, Holly, and Andrew cover the escalating crisis over Trump’s Greenland obsession, a wave of Tory defections to Reform UK, Canada’s pivot to China, and some economic mood swings that don’t line up with the data. 🔥 In This Episode🧊 The Greenland Crisis Escalates- Trump threatens tariffs, floats military use, and posts AI images claiming US ownership- Is NATO broken beyond repair?- Why Canada and Europe may now have to act like middle powers—for real- “Trump always chickens out” or “this time it’s real”?🇨🇦 Canada’s Pivot to China- Mark Carney strikes a historic tariff deal with China- EVs and canola in, geopolitical certainty… TBD- What it signals about the new world order—and how Doug Ford feels about it🏛 UK Defections & Tory Discipline- Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell jump ship to Reform- Kemi Badenoch clamps down: decisive leadership or brand dilution?- What this means for the future of Reform—and the shape of the Conservative Party📉 Vibes vs. Reality- Consumer confidence is up among younger voters—while older voters are gloomier than ever- Is this a vibescession or just a new kind of political identity?⸻🧠 Quick HitsWord of the Week:Vibescession — The economic slowdown that exists mostly in public perception.Number of the Week:$125 million — The estimated cost of renaming the US Department of Defense to the Department of War. Because priorities.🎙 Featuring:Joseph LavoieHolly Mumby-CroftAndrew Percy

Photo by Visit Greenland on Unsplash

It’s our final episode of 2025 — and we’re going out with a bang (and a beer). Joseph, Holly, and Andrew reunite after a winter bug-induced hiatus to bring you our first-ever year-end special. We make bold predictions (that we’ll surely regret), hand out highly scientific year-end awards, play games, roast each other’s beer tasting notes, and toast to the chaos that was.
It’s everything you’d expect from Craft Politics — unfiltered, occasionally insightful, and always a bit ridiculous.
🗳 Rapid-Fire Reflections:
One word to sum up the political year? Fruitless, chaotic… and a bit shit.

The story everyone thinks they understood?
Doug Ford’s World Series ad

Trump’s tariffs

Labour’s tax strategy — and still nobody gets it.

What we’re all pretending won’t matter in 2026, but will?
Alberta separatism

UK house prices

defence spending… and apparently, Andrew’s age.

🔹 Serious Predictions:
Canada heads to the polls — and the Conservatives win (Joseph)

Conservative leadership could change… in Canada (Andrew)

Reform UK will peak in spring… then fade (Holly)

🌶 Spicy Predictions:
The Parti Québécois doesn’t win in Quebec — CAQ makes a surprise comeback (Joseph)

Zack Polanski’s meteoric Green Party rise hits a bump (Holly)

Something very spicy happens in Labour ranks (Andrew… vaguely)

🕵️‍♀️ Quiet Shifts to Watch:
Canada’s election becomes about chaos vs. control

Doug Ford and Donald Trump become unlikely friends

Joseph steps down from the podcast due to… “an incident”

📊 Real Headline or Fake?
Doug Ford on The Amazing Race?

Signal-gate?

Andrew Percy in the Lords?
Let’s just say, trust no one — especially Grockipedia.

🗣️ Who Said It?
“I don’t particularly want to wipe someone’s bum”

“The best is yet to come… get the bungee harness ready”

“I originally saw AI as an efficiency gain. I was wrong.”
(Many of your favourites are quoted, willingly or not.)

🍺 Beer Notes or Erotic Fiction?
Andrew and Holly put Joseph’s Untappd beer reviews under the microscope.
Did he really say a beer had a “beautiful head”? Yes.
Did he really sneak one into a soccer match? Also yes.
Did any of it make sense? You be the judge
🏆 Year-End Awards
Most Predictable Surprise: Angela Rayner resigns

Best Attempt at Spin: Signal-gate

Worst Use of a Chart: Lib Dems still doing Lib Dem things

Phrase We Never Want to Hear Again: “Looks gorgeous. Tastes like a marvel.”

The team is back in London — Joseph is enjoying the rare British sunshine, while Holly and Andrew are soaking up the political chaos. This week, we unpack the Labour government’s tough week of headlines and hard truths: from a post-budget messaging mess to a controversial shake-up of the UK justice system — and a surprise pipeline agreement in Canada.
📉 Labour’s Budget Blunders: ‘Did She Mislead the Public?’
We revisit last week’s autumn budget after a week of unravelling

Rachel Reeves is under pressure over whether she misrepresented the fiscal headroom

Communications have spiralled into a defensive posture: “Did she lie?” becomes the only story

Holly shares her three-day rule: every budget turns to chaos within 72 hours — and this one delivered

⚖️ Trial Without Jury? The Justice Reform Turning Heads
David Lammy’s proposal to remove jury trials for offences under 3 years sparks a major backlash

Critics say it’s an attack on a centuries-old principle — and unlikely to solve case backlogs

Andrew questions whether judges are being politicized, while Holly warns of a “slippery slope”

Joseph notes this is another Labour announcement suffering from poor rollout and zero preconditioning

🇨🇦 Alberta’s Pipeline Deal with Ottawa: Real Progress or Political Cover?
Joseph breaks down the new MOU between Alberta and the federal government

The deal sets the stage for a new west coast pipeline — without consulting BC

Premier Eby is furious, Carney is betting big, and Danielle Smith is walking a tightrope

Andrew and Holly react to whether this kind of high-stakes, nation-building compromise could ever work in UK politics

We almost had a new entry for “Lipstick on a Gerbil” — our regular feature on political spin — but in the spirit of seasonal generosity, Andrew suggests giving UK ministers a break…for now.