Trump’s War on Data and Rise of the Pricing Bots
Donald Trump’s decision to fire the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika McEntarfer, apparently in retribution for a report that showed slower job growth, was without precedent in recent US history. This week on Everybody’s Business we explore why presidents—at least since Richard Nixon—have left the BLS alone, and we hear from former BLS commissioner Erica Groshen on how exactly that data is collected. According to Groshen, the recent downward revisions in the rate of job growth (which Trump alleged without any evidence was a political hatchet job) were business as usual. She explains that such revisions happen because it takes months for the more than 100,000 businesses the government surveys every month to respond. Some fill in their data electronically; some send it by email or even fax. While the BLS waits, it puts out an estimate; those estimates are often revised later on. For the past few decades, this approach has been widely seen as a huge success. BLS data, which includes employment and inflation statistics, is relied on by researchers, economists and government policy planners—as well as by businesses. They use the data to help write budgets, plan hiring and set prices. Although Groshen optimistically contends that McEntarfer’s firing won’t immediately dent that perception, it comes amid budget cuts that have already limited the ability of BLS researchers to collect granular data and could lead to questions about reliability. Also this week, we discuss the controversy around artificial intelligence pricing, which has recently centered around the airline industry, widely seen as the undisputed leader in customer frustration. But the strategy is in fact coming for you on pretty much every type of good and service. We also debate the significance of the American Eagle “good jeans” controversy and ask how much consumers really think about culture wars when they buy dungarees. Finally: A counterintuitive approach to warding off one of America’s most feared predators.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Trump's 4D Chess, Your North Korean Coworker, and Hard Celsius
It was a packed week for the US economy: jobs numbers, an interest rate announcement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, consumer confidence data and a tariff deadline. Topping the list was gross domestic product, the sum total of goods and services the economy produces—generally considered the measure of growth. After months of tariffs (and Donald Trump’s constantly shifting positions on them), many economists were predicting the US economy would be showing signs of strain. It turns out, that wasn’t necessarily the case when it comes to GDP (though jobs numbers unveiled Friday may give some pause). After falling a bit during the first few months of the year, this quarter, economic growth clocked in at a 3% annualized rate. But there’s more to this number than meets the eye—or perhaps less. This week on Everybody’s Business, we talk GDP with Ken Rogoff, Harvard economist and author of Our Dollar, Your Problem. His take: the numbers may have been distorted by some of the panicked importing that US businesses were doing earlier in the year in anticipation of Trump’s latest (and now extended again) deadlines. However, he also leans into some chess metaphors (he is, after all, a grandmaster) to address those Trump fans who contend the president is playing four dimensional chess. His verdict? Trump is a “coffee house player.” That’s someone who’s better than you think—but not as good as he himself thinks. Later in the show, we talk with Evan Ratliff about his feature in Bloomberg Businessweek, detailing how workers in North Korea are taking US tech jobs while posing as remote-working Americans. They’ve allegedly managed to infiltrate some of the biggest and wealthiest companies in the country—and their paychecks go to fund North Korea’s nuclear program. Finally, the underrated story of the week is a canned spirit drink was mislabeled as an energy drink. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Dude! They Killed Colbert!
After 10 years, CBS announced it was cancelling Stephen Colbert’s Late Show. This coincidentally came on the heels of his humorous excoriation of parent company Paramount’s $16 million deal with President Donald Trump over what the Republican claimed was bias in the editing of an interview with then-Vice President Kamala Harris. CBS journalists denied the allegation and legal experts said Trump’s claim was dead on arrival in court. Colbert meanwhile referred to the payment as a “big fat bribe,” going on to imply that Paramount—led by Chair Shari Redstone—was paying off Trump in the hope he would green-light an $8 billion merger with SkyDance. (On Thursday evening, also the same day this episode was recorded, the FCC approved the deal). Given that Colbert had the best-rated show in its time slot, the move to cancel him was widely seen as a quid pro quo, driving yet another nail into the coffin of free expression. Add to that a GOP-controlled Congress taking back previously approved funding for public media (at Trump’s direction), and some see the end of a free press in America. Or, less pessimistically, could it just be the end of outdated business models? This week on Everybody’s Business from Bloomberg Businessweek, Felix Gillette joins Max Chafkin and me to break down the Colbert firing. Gillette contends that, despite its ratings, Colbert’s show has been losing money since the pandemic and that it may have been cancelled in the near future anyway. He also points to the most recent episode of South Park, which tackles the issue of Colbert’s cancellation while taking aim at Trump. The creators of South Park just signed a $1.5 billion deal with Paramount (which owns Comedy Central). So maybe free expression is still alive and well, only it’s not so free anymore? Then we take a look at the federal government. Max and Stacey talk with a former employee of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau about his experience getting fired by the “Department of Government Efficiency,” what he’s seen happen to the department since and some of the CFPB’s work that isn’t being done (and, in some cases, being undone). Also on this episode: Max and Stacey discuss the return of meme stocks: Kohls, GoPro, and Krispy Kreme are feeling the boost. Stacey gets reactions from Krispy Kreme customers. The underrated story of the week: Starbucks’ big plan for turning business around? Serving more coffee. Max takes issue. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Trump's Fed fight, Staycations, and Etsy Witches
On the morning of July 16, a White House official told Bloomberg News that President Donald Trump was preparing to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Such a firing would potentially be illegal (as the Supreme Court recently noted) and undermine decades of goodwill that Fed policymakers have built up with investors. Trump quickly took the threat back, while making it clear he might still try to dismiss Powell, ostensibly based on alleged overspending on a renovation of the central bank’s headquarters. On this week’s episode of Everybody’s Business, hosts Stacey Vanek Smith and Max Chafkin are joined by Martha Gimbel, director of the Budget Lab at Yale, to explore what’s at stake. Though Gimbel says there’s a case to be made that the Fed has been too slow to lower interest rates, she explains that the idea of either firing or bullying Powell into an extreme rate cut would backfire by destabilizing the economy. She says banks would probably raise mortgage rates in the short run rather than lower them if Powell were ousted, due to the uncertainty caused by such an unprecedented move. The other problem is that interest rates aren’t set by Powell, but by a committee—and the committee might react to Powell’s firing by resisting Trump’s directives. Also on the episode, Bloomberg Businessweek columnist Amanda Mull discusses why travel still hasn’t rebounded from the Covid-19 pandemic. Part of what’s happening has to do with politics: Canadian tourists in particular seem to be staying home in protest of Trump’s provocations. Plus, the pandemic may have permanently changed travel habits, discouraging vacationers from flying and pushing some business travelers to opt for Zoom when they might have previously hopped on a plane. An underappreciated factor however is that airline travel has simply gotten less comfortable. This also comes back to the pandemic, which pushed carriers to adopt pricing schemes that allowed leisure travelers to pay for perks while adding new charges for services once provided for free. That’s made the experience for those of us at the back of the plane all the more miserable. On the bright side, the New Yorkers we spoke to—which included New York Mayor Eric Adams, who is having a very bad week—are nevertheless feeling optimistic. Finally, we explore the growth of “metaphysical services” by Etsy witches who cast spells for strangers at a reasonable price. Results certainly aren’t guaranteed—and centuries of folklore would suggest that messing with spells is a dangerous game—but that isn’t slowing down this market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Pricey Copper, Bummed Consumers and a Bee Mystery Solved
On Tuesday, seemingly off the cuff, US President Donald Trump suddenly threatened a 50% tariff on copper. The reaction from markets was predictably strong, leaving metal distributors scrambling to get deliveries across the border. In this week’s episode of Everybody’s Business, Bloomberg economics reporter Joe Deaux joins hosts Max Chafkin and Stacey Vanek Smith to discuss Trump’s latest musings, how complicated a rewiring of the copper supply chain might be and the stark challenges of bringing manufacturing back to the US. (As in, it takes about 10-20 years to get a mine up and running at commercial scale.) Also on this episode, wealth reporter Ben Steverman enters the studio to discuss consumer sentiment as an economic indicator. For many academics (and consumers), the economy is largely made up of numbers to be calculated. But how do you measure how someone feels? Steverman discusses his recent profile of Joanne Hsu, the director of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, an institution that’s been measuring vibes for decades. Over the years, the survey has found that people’s perception of the economy can be a powerful indicator of where things are heading. And as you likely know, recent surveys show that Americans are very pessimistic about their finances. Prices are still considered too high and Trump’s trade war is on everyone’s mind. Lastly, Smith presents to Chafkin an underrated story of the week: scientists believe they have cracked the mystery of the big honey bee die-off. The likely culprits? Pesticide-resistant mites. This is welcome news to Chafkin, who shares his own story of a recent run-in with a beehive. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Bloomberg Businessweek brings you a smart and fun chat show about all things...business. Hosted by award-winning business and economics journalists Max Chafkin (author of The Contrarian: Peter Thiel and Silicon Valley’s Pursuit of Power) and Stacey Vanek Smith (former co-host of NPR’s Planet Money and reporter for Marketplace), Everybody's Business is powered by the unparalleled sources and reporters who bring you Businessweek magazine’s headlines and the stories behind them. The show gives listeners a window into the discussions happening in boardrooms, Zooms and group chats in power centers around the world. From interpreting Fed meetings to the business of wolf cloning, each week Max, Stacey and their friends at Bloomberg Businessweek guide listeners through what really went on during the last week from Wall Street and Main Street. Because what’s happening with money and markets is everybody’s business.
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