Why is the U.S. unemployment rate low amid trade uncertainty?
The U.S. unemployment rate has remained near historic lows amid massive uncertainty from trade wars.
A long-term structural trend—surging retirements—is keeping the unemployment rate from rising drastically even during short-term cyclical deterioration in the labour market.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:
• The mechanisms of how record retirements keep the unemployment rate low over the medium-term.
• Why the U.S. arguably needs more new workers than it needs new jobs.
• How these structural forces will play out with near-term cyclical forces (like a labour market deterioration).
• How immigration policy in Canada has blunted—but not fully eliminated—the cost of population aging.
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How worried should we be about spiking oil prices?
Oil prices spiked last week following escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. This has raised concerns about higher inflation against an already uncertain economic backdrop.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone unpack:
• How high inflation could hit in Canada and the U.S. if oil prices continue higher.
• How higher energy prices could impact growth.
• What this could mean for interest rates in Canada and the U.S.
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How is large government debt in the U.S. shaping its economy?
An enormous U.S. government deficit continues to raise concerns about fiscal sustainability as Moody’s joined other rating agencies in downgrading the U.S.’s credit rating.
This raises questions about the implications for U.S. monetary policy, interest rates, and the impact on neighboring economies.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore:
• Why fiscal challenges may be limiting the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates.
• How the recent "Big Beautiful Bill" could add to the fiscal burden.
• What these trends mean for Canada’s economy and monetary policy.
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How has the U.S.-China trade war de-escalation impacted our forecasts?
The U.S. administration reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from a staggering 145% to 30% marked a significant breakthrough in the ongoing trade war. But, the average effective U.S. tariff rate still sits at 13%— and fundamental trade headwinds haven't disappeared.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC's Economics Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone take you through how our forecasts for U.S. core inflation, consumer spending and growth have changed with the reduction of Chinese tariffs. They also tackle:
• How an unwinding of tariffs on Chinese imports will impact our outlooks for U.S. core inflation, consumer spending, and growth.
• How this policy shift factors into the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions for 2025.
• Whether Canada's economic outlook will be impacted by U.S.-China trade developments.
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Trade war backlash: Where are Canadians vacationing now?
The trade war is changing travel plans. As tensions simmer, Canadians’ trips to the U.S. dropped substantially in early 2025 compared to last year.
But, vacations weren’t cancelled altogether—Canadians are just going somewhere else. And, this trend of travelling less to the U.S. isn't unique to Canada – arrivals to the U.S. from other countries have also slumped this year.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore:
• How travel patterns have changed in 2025 to reflect broader trade tensions.
• Whether tourism within Canada will rise to offset international declines.
• How these trends may impact the services sector’s outlook and trade deficits.
Macroeconomics for everybody! The (new) 10-Minute Take podcast from RBC Economics will explain (in simple terms) what the latest economic data means and why you should care. It's everything you wanted to know but were too shy to ask -- in less than 10 minutes.
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