The 10-Minute Take

U.S. headline inflation just posted its hottest print in nearly three years, driven by surging energy prices and sticky core inflation pressures.
At the same time, labour market data is looking solid, and growth hasn’t meaningfully slowed. We have yet to see signs of Stagflation Lite materializing, and don’t expect the oil price shock will tip the economy into a recession.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan explain:
Whether hot US inflation is purely an energy story—or if pressures are building beneath the surface.
Why the Fed stays put even as the labour market holds up.
What it would take from a jobs’ perspective to trigger a recession in the U.S.—and why it’s unlikely.

Softening in Canada’s headline labour market data this year masks a more encouraging underlying story.
Job losses remain concentrated in tariff-exposed sectors, layoffs are declining, and hiring is beginning to rebound—all signs of resilience beneath the surface.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss:
What hidden unemployment means and whether it's rising.
How "low hire, low fire" dynamics disproportionately affect younger job seekers.
Why labour supply is expected to tighten as hiring demand recovers later in 2026.

U.S. productivity growth is strong, business investment in information processing and equipment has surged, and headlines about AI replacing jobs are growing louder.
But, how much of this is actually attributable to AI and how much is noise?
Reality is nuanced. We’re still largely in the building out phase of AI investment, and it’s too soon to say whether AI has led to a structural break in productivity. Fears of widespread job displacement may dominate the narrative, but labor market data tells a different story.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC U.S. economists Carrie Freestone and Imri Haggin discuss:
Whether recent productivity gains can be attributed to adoption of AI or reflect other factors.
How AI-related capital spending is influencing business investment.
What data shows about AI's impact on jobs, and whether labor displacement is happening.

Global oil prices remain high as the Middle East conflict persists, raising questions about a potential comeback of the broad-based inflation Canada experienced during and after the pandemic.
But, this shock is fundamentally different from the past. Unlike 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war compounded systemic supply chain disruptions from pandemic lockdowns, today's commodity shock is narrowly concentrated in oil, and unfolding at a time when global supply chains are more resilient.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss:
How the scope and scale of the commodity price shock differs from the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.
What localized and contained supply chain disruptions this year could mean for global inflation.
Why Canadian consumers could be less tolerant of rising prices than they were in 2022.

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed global oil prices higher, raising questions about the impact to Canada’s oil-exporting economy.
This shock differs fundamentally from the past including 2015’s oil price collapse, which drove structural changes in Canada’s energy sector over the past decade. The result: A surprisingly neutral net effect from today’s high oil prices on real economic growth.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss:
Why domestic energy investment isn’t likely to surge despite higher oil prices.
How the price shock can benefit some sectors but hurt others, creating a fractured impact.
What to expect for Bank of Canada rate decisions as inflation pressures evolve.