U.S. tariff collection among imports are now at the highest level since the 1930s, and many are wondering how these policies are measuring up against their objectives. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Assistant Chief Economist Nathan Janzen is joined by Senior Economist Claire Fan to discuss: • Who’s bearing the costs of tariffs so far.• The current and future prospects for U.S. manufacturing amid protectionist measures.• Whether tariff revenues can make a meaningful dent in America's massive federal deficit.• What these findings mean for the sustainability of U.S. tariff policy going forward.
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Stagflation lite: What this means for the U.S. economy
Recent economic data in the U.S. reinforces our "stagflation lite" view as early signs of tariff impacts have emerged alongside unexpected labour market weakness.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down:• What stagflation lite means and why it's different from severe stagflation in the 1970s.• How producer price data are showing early impacts of tariffs before these fully reach consumer prices.• Why dramatic downward revisions to employment figures signal a concerning trend.• What this scenario in the U.S. means for Canada’s export-dependent economy.
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady for the third consecutive meeting in July despite acknowledging some softening in the Canadian economy since January.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down:What's keeping the central bank on the sidelines.How CUSMA exemptions have protected Canada from the worst of U.S. tariff impacts.The role of growing government spending plans in shaping the outlook.
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Is Canada's housing market regaining its footing?
Canada's housing market is showing early signs of recovery after months of trade war anxiety kept homebuyers on the sidelines.But even with three consecutive months of increasing home resales, activity remains below levels at the beginning of the year, with significant regional differences across the country.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:-How housing affordability has improved to its best level in three years, even though it’s still far from pre-pandemic levels.-The significant variations in market conditions between regions and housing segments (i.e. condos vs. detached homes).-How trade uncertainty, Bank of Canada interest rate decisions and labour market trends are influencing the housing recovery.
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Why is the U.S. unemployment rate low amid trade uncertainty?
The U.S. unemployment rate has remained near historic lows amid massive uncertainty from trade wars.
A long-term structural trend—surging retirements—is keeping the unemployment rate from rising drastically even during short-term cyclical deterioration in the labour market.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:
• The mechanisms of how record retirements keep the unemployment rate low over the medium-term.
• Why the U.S. arguably needs more new workers than it needs new jobs.
• How these structural forces will play out with near-term cyclical forces (like a labour market deterioration).
• How immigration policy in Canada has blunted—but not fully eliminated—the cost of population aging.
Macroeconomics for everybody! The (new) 10-Minute Take podcast from RBC Economics will explain (in simple terms) what the latest economic data means and why you should care. It's everything you wanted to know but were too shy to ask -- in less than 10 minutes.
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