The 10-Minute Take

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed global oil prices higher, raising questions about the impact to Canada’s oil-exporting economy.
This shock differs fundamentally from the past including 2015’s oil price collapse, which drove structural changes in Canada’s energy sector over the past decade. The result: A surprisingly neutral net effect from today’s high oil prices on real economic growth.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss:
Why domestic energy investment isn’t likely to surge despite higher oil prices.
How the price shock can benefit some sectors but hurt others, creating a fractured impact.
What to expect for Bank of Canada rate decisions as inflation pressures evolve.

Rising oil prices and its impact on the US economy are continuously evolving, and how long the crisis lasts will be the key determinant of where headline inflation settles.
If the shock persists, higher energy prices will layer onto core inflation pressures amid the passthrough of tariffs to prices.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC’s Head of US Economics, Mike Reid, joins economist Carrie Freestone to discuss how he’s thinking about inflation and the hit to consumption in the months ahead. The episode covers:
Constructing a range of scenarios to assess potential impact of higher energy prices on headline inflation.
Signs of early tariff passthrough already showing up beneath the surface.
Whether the US labor market and consumers are well-positioned to withstand these shocks.

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision against the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad-based tariffs is far from the end of the U.S. tariff story.
The administration has already pivoted to new legislative authorities and opened investigations for future measures. For Canada, the implications are more limited than many would think.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down what the ruling means for trade policy and the economy. They discuss:
What IEEPA is, why it was struck down, and what the administration is doing instead
Four major statutory authorities the U.S. administration could use to reinstate or expand tariffs.
Why Canada’s tariff backdrop hasn’t really changed from the ruling—and what matters for the bilateral relationship going forward.

One month into 2026, U.S. inflation continues to run above 2% for a fifth consecutive year—and the reason goes beyond a single cause.
Some recent data—including easing in core services and vehicle prices—might suggest relief is near, but a closer look reveals these improvements are unlikely to persist as a trend.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore what's driving inflation and how to cut through the noise. They explore:
How a tight labor market, robust consumer demand, tariffs flowing through supply chains, and a lagging housing inflation measure are all keeping inflation elevated.
What are the critical differences between the Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures and why the Fed's preferred measure often tells a different story than headline CPI readings.
Key data challenges and what to monitor: The Producer Price Index for tariff signals, business surveys for pricing intent, and wage dynamics for inflation's floor.

Canada's extreme trade concentration—with 75% of energy exports and 77% of manufacturing exports going to the U.S. in 2024—has left the country vulnerable to protectionist trade policies.
While 2025 data shows encouraging early signs of diversification, most Canadian exporters still lack the infrastructure and trade channels needed to pivot away from U.S. markets effectively.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone are joined by colleague Salim Zanzana for conversation on:
Canada’s concentrated trade reality and how it’s evolved in the past year.
What early diversification efforts reveal about Canadian exporters adapting.
Recent developments between Canada and China and their economic impact.