Canada's housing market is showing early signs of recovery after months of trade war anxiety kept homebuyers on the sidelines.But even with three consecutive months of increasing home resales, activity remains below levels at the beginning of the year, with significant regional differences across the country.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:-How housing affordability has improved to its best level in three years, even though it’s still far from pre-pandemic levels.-The significant variations in market conditions between regions and housing segments (i.e. condos vs. detached homes).-How trade uncertainty, Bank of Canada interest rate decisions and labour market trends are influencing the housing recovery.
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11:43
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11:43
Why is the U.S. unemployment rate low amid trade uncertainty?
The U.S. unemployment rate has remained near historic lows amid massive uncertainty from trade wars.
A long-term structural trend—surging retirements—is keeping the unemployment rate from rising drastically even during short-term cyclical deterioration in the labour market.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:
• The mechanisms of how record retirements keep the unemployment rate low over the medium-term.
• Why the U.S. arguably needs more new workers than it needs new jobs.
• How these structural forces will play out with near-term cyclical forces (like a labour market deterioration).
• How immigration policy in Canada has blunted—but not fully eliminated—the cost of population aging.
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10:40
How worried should we be about spiking oil prices?
Oil prices spiked last week following escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. This has raised concerns about higher inflation against an already uncertain economic backdrop.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone unpack:
• How high inflation could hit in Canada and the U.S. if oil prices continue higher.
• How higher energy prices could impact growth.
• What this could mean for interest rates in Canada and the U.S.
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11:02
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11:02
How is large government debt in the U.S. shaping its economy?
An enormous U.S. government deficit continues to raise concerns about fiscal sustainability as Moody’s joined other rating agencies in downgrading the U.S.’s credit rating.
This raises questions about the implications for U.S. monetary policy, interest rates, and the impact on neighboring economies.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore:
• Why fiscal challenges may be limiting the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates.
• How the recent "Big Beautiful Bill" could add to the fiscal burden.
• What these trends mean for Canada’s economy and monetary policy.
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10:34
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10:34
How has the U.S.-China trade war de-escalation impacted our forecasts?
The U.S. administration reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from a staggering 145% to 30% marked a significant breakthrough in the ongoing trade war. But, the average effective U.S. tariff rate still sits at 13%— and fundamental trade headwinds haven't disappeared.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC's Economics Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone take you through how our forecasts for U.S. core inflation, consumer spending and growth have changed with the reduction of Chinese tariffs. They also tackle:
• How an unwinding of tariffs on Chinese imports will impact our outlooks for U.S. core inflation, consumer spending, and growth.
• How this policy shift factors into the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions for 2025.
• Whether Canada's economic outlook will be impacted by U.S.-China trade developments.
Macroeconomics for everybody! The (new) 10-Minute Take podcast from RBC Economics will explain (in simple terms) what the latest economic data means and why you should care. It's everything you wanted to know but were too shy to ask -- in less than 10 minutes.
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