The 10-Minute Take

We're back for season four!
In this season premiere, join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they cut through the noise and reveal themes that matter for the Canadian and U.S. economies in 2026.
Despite a turbulent 2025, Canada's economy is starting from a surprisingly stronger position than many realize. Per-capita GDP improved for the first time in three years. The real question is: Can this improvement be sustained as international headwinds continue to grow.
South of the border, our outlook for the U.S. remains "stagflation lite"—sticky services inflation around 3% paired with growth below 2%. It's not just about tariffs. Uneven consumer spending driven by wealthy households and retirees is keeping inflation pressures alive.

Trade disruptions in 2025 took a toll on Canada-U.S. relations after decades of coordination and integration. Still, the two economies are more similar than many may appreciate.
In this season finale of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone round up three common themes shaping both economies this year. They include:
• Slowing population growth, and how it’s impacted a key labour market benchmark—breakeven employment rates.
• Resilient consumer spending holding up despite much trade uncertainty and deteriorating job market conditions.
• Big government deficits—an ongoing theme in the U.S. post-pandemic, but also emerging in Canada as well.

The U.S. government shutdown ended after 43 days—the longest in history—and, economists now have more clarity about the release of government data.
But, clarity on timing doesn't mean clarity on the state of the U.S. economy. Without key October data, the U.S. Federal Reserve faces significant fog heading into the critical December interest rate decision.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss:
When (and if) key indicators like the October jobs and inflation data will be released, and what gaps we're facing.
What September data revealed about the economy heading into the shutdown
How the shutdown will weigh on GDP growth in Q4 2025.
Why the Fed's December meeting is consequential, and whether a pause may be the most prudent move.

In response to tariff pressures and economic weakness, Budget 2025 commits big new spending to spark private investment and reignite growth – with higher deficits and debt as a result. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economist Claire Fan is joined by RBC Assistant Chief Economist Cynthia Leach to discuss:
Why fiscal policy is the right tool to address the weak growth outlook
How the growth agenda is central to the government’s fiscal plan
Whether the budget does enough to catalyze growth – and the execution risks that could derail it
If Canada can afford to spend big right now

It’s the 23rd day of the U.S. government shutdown and 750,000 federal workers are furloughed.
Significant data disruptions are clouding visibility over the economy just as the U.S. Federal Reserve restarts its rate-cutting cycle.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss:
Why data disruptions may be more concerning than immediate economic disruptions.
What alternative private sector indicators reveal about the current state of the U.S. economy.
The Fed's likely path forward amid the data blackout and trade uncertainty.