Catalyst with Shayle Kann

• A skeptic’s take on AI electricity load growth

  The predictions are coming in hot. Data centers could grow to consume more than 9% of U.S. electricity generation by 2030, according to EPRI. That’s more than double its current estimated data center load. AI will increase global data center power demand 165% by 2030, says Goldman Sachs. And billions of dollars are at stake. Utilities, megasite developers, and data center operators are all basing major decisions on predictions like these. But they’re also the kinds of predictions we’ve seen before. In 1999, when the internet was growing fast, a couple researchers claimed it would grow to consume half of all U.S. power generation within a decade — until a team at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory debunked it. Jonathan Koomey was one of those researchers. Although today’s predictions about energy usage are tamer than those in 1999, Jonathan still has questions about the current hype around AI power demand. He's is now the founder and president of Koomey Analytics, which has published multiple papers on the topic, including a recent report for the Bipartisan Policy Center: Electricity Demand Growth and Data Centers: A Guide for the Perplexed. So what are the assumptions that go into these new predictions? And how do they hold up to scrutiny? In this episode, Shayle talks to Jonathan about why he questions the hype around AI load growth predictions and why he believes energy constraints will incentivize the AI industry to focus on efficiency. Shayle and Jonathan cover topics like: The time lags and proprietary data that hinders precise data center load estimates, both in historical analyses and future predictions The difficulty of reproducing the predictions of even prominent institutions like the IEA The two basic assumptions that go into predictions: AI demand and AI power requirements Why Jonathan believes conventional wisdom relies on questionable sources, like Nvidia’s business plan The unexplored areas of AI energy efficiency, like computer architecture, software improvements, algorithms, and special purpose computers Recommended resources Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory: 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report Nature: Will AI accelerate or delay the race to net-zero emissions? Joule: To better understand AI’s growing energy use, analysts need a data revolution WSJ: Internet Hype in the ’90s Stoked a Power-Generation Bubble. Could It Happen Again With AI? Open Circuit: The data center boom: ‘All the cheap power is gone’ Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is executive editor. Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Antenna Group, the public relations and strategic marketing agency of choice for climate and energy leaders. If you're a startup, investor, or global corporation that's looking to tell your climate story, demonstrate your impact, or accelerate your growth, Antenna Group's team of industry insiders is ready to help. Learn more at antennagroup.com.

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  56:23
• Cultivated meat’s “trough of disillusionment”

  Between 2013 and 2023, cultivated meat companies raised a total of nearly $3 billion. In 2020, Singapore approved the world’s first cultivated meat products, with the U.S. and Israel following close behind.  But head to the meat department of any American grocery store today, and you won’t find cultivated meat for sale. After short-lived restaurant tasting menus in the U.S., it’s no longer available. Distribution in Singapore is growing but small, and no products have launched in Israel yet.  So what happened to the high hopes for cultivated meat? And what comes next for the industry? In this episode, Shayle talks to Isha Datar, executive director of New Harvest, a non-profit focused on developing research in the industry. She has written blog posts arguing that the industry is in the start-up hype cycle’s “trough of disillusionment.” She calls for focusing on basic research, targeting high-value products, and even adopting a different name — cellular agriculture — to signal a shift toward a broader set of biotech products and techniques. Shayle and Isha cover topics like: What went wrong with the first-generation startups focused on low-value, whole-meat products like beef and chicken Persistent challenges in the industry, like the siloing of expertise, scarcity of research funding, and lack of standardization  Why she’s hopeful about a more diverse second generation that’s focused on high-value products like sashimi and foie gras and biotech ingredients like fetal bovine serum and cell culture media The cellular agriculture cost stack and the $30,000 batch of cookies  Basic research, shared resources, and the standardization needed to bring down costs Recommended resources New Harvest: Where Are We On the Hype Cycle? Part I and Part II The Counter: Lab-grown meat is supposed to be inevitable. The science tells a different story. Biotechnology and Bioengineering: Scale-Up Economics for Cultured Meat Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is executive editor. Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Antenna Group, the public relations and strategic marketing agency of choice for climate and energy leaders. If you're a startup, investor, or global corporation that's looking to tell your climate story, demonstrate your impact, or accelerate your growth, Antenna Group's team of industry insiders is ready to help. Learn more at antennagroup.com.

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  43:48
• The promise and perils of sodium-ion batteries

  Sodium-ion could be the next big thing. Last August, Natron announced a $1.4B factory in North Carolina. Other U.S. companies like Peak Energy, Bedrock Materials, and Acculon Energy are jockeying for position in the market. Meanwhile, almost all of the world’s sodium-ion manufacturing capacity, current and planned, is in China. CATL’s CEO Robin Zeng suggested that sodium-ion could ultimately take up to half of LFP’s market share. The potential advantages are exciting: Sodium-based chemistries could be cheaper and safer. They could also use domestically sourced materials, avoiding the geopolitical headaches of minerals critical to the lithium-ion supply chain, like nickel, cobalt, and copper. So, amid all the sodium-ion hype, what's credible and what’s not? In this episode, Shayle talks to Adrian Yao, founder of Stanford’s STEER program, a battery research group specializing in techno-economic analysis. He’s also a board member of lithium-ion manufacturer EnPower, where he was once a co-founder and CTO. Shayle and Adrian talk about the findings from a recent Nature paper Adrian co-authored exploring a techno-economic analysis of sodium-ion batteries. They cover topics like: The differences between sodium-ion and lithium-ion, as illustrated by the battery sandwich  Misconceptions about sodium-ion, for example, that it’s necessarily safer  The biggest challenges: energy density and cost competitiveness How players in the lithium-ion supply chain could pivot to sodium-ion Why the technology’s success may hinge on the price of nickel, copper, and other lithium-ion materials Recommended resources Nature Energy: Critically assessing sodium-ion technology roadmaps and scenarios for techno-economic competitiveness against lithium-ion batteries Latitude Media: Peak Energy’s quest to build US sodium-ion battery dominance Heatmap: Is Sodium-Ion the Next Big Battery? WSJ: U.S. Battery Rush Spurs $1.4 Billion Sodium-Ion Factory in North Carolina Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is executive editor. Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Antenna Group, the public relations and strategic marketing agency of choice for climate and energy leaders. If you're a startup, investor, or global corporation that's looking to tell your climate story, demonstrate your impact, or accelerate your growth, Antenna Group's team of industry insiders is ready to help. Learn more at antennagroup.com.

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  46:39
• The case for colocating data centers and generation

  Sheldon Kimber says the grid is broken — at least for new data centers and other large, industrial loads that need lots of clean power, fast.  But the founder and CEO of Intersect Power believes there’s a workaround that enables larger data centers and speeds up time to power: colocating behind-the-meter generation and storage on megasites rich with renewable resources.  In short, instead of bringing clean generation to load, bring load to clean generation. Major partners are on board with the strategy. Last December Intersect announced $800M in investment from Google and private equity firm TPG, along with a goal of catalyzing $20B in projects by 2030. So how does colocation work? And how far does it go? In this episode, Shayle talks to Sheldon about how colocation can help sidestep the challenges associated with grid upgrades, transmission, and permitting. They dig into topics like: Major forces shaping the market, like AI demand, the IRA, and tariffs Optimal PPA prices and tenures The right mix of grid-connected and behind-the-meter power The extreme version of colocation: off-grid data centers Megasite developers for hydrogen and crypto and how they took advantage of the AI boom Whether DeepSeek will cause energy demand to temper or accelerate Recommended resources Latitude Media: Google’s new data center model signals a massive market shift Latitude Media: Load growth is changing how Silicon Ranch develops solar projects Latitude Media: Amazon’s data center strategy: ‘Get back to being grid-tied’ Catalyst: The US power demand surge: The electricity gauntlet has arrived Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is executive editor. Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Antenna Group, the public relations and strategic marketing agency of choice for climate and energy leaders. If you're a startup, investor, or global corporation that's looking to tell your climate story, demonstrate your impact, or accelerate your growth, Antenna Group's team of industry insiders is ready to help. Learn more at antennagroup.com.

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  46:44
• More 2025 trends: DeepSeek, plug-in hybrids, and curtailment

  Didn’t catch last week’s episode on Nat Bullard’s mega slide deck on energy transition? Start there.  This is the second half of our extended conversation with Nat, the former chief content officer at BloombergNEF and current co-founder at data insights company Halcyon.  In this episode, Shayle and Nat dig into topics like: Rising solar installations and stagnating wind Why we’re wasting so much renewable power amid skyrocketing load growth The rise of Chinese plug-in hybrids and exports Whether DeepSeek’s efficiency will temper or turbocharge load growth The woeful state of transmission buildout, despite demand for it Why one quarter of Virginia’s power demand comes from data centers Recommended resources Latitude Media: Does DeepSeek call the data center boom into question? Latitude Media: To get data centers online, one Virginia co-op is proposing a new business model Latitude Media: A dizzying year at the AI energy nexus Catalyst: Demystifying the Chinese EV market Reuters: Exclusive: Global solar capacity hits 2 TW on path to climate goal, data shows Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is executive editor. Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Antenna Group, the public relations and strategic marketing agency of choice for climate and energy leaders. If you're a startup, investor, or global corporation that's looking to tell your climate story, demonstrate your impact, or accelerate your growth, Antenna Group's team of industry insiders is ready to help. Learn more at antennagroup.com.

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  49:45

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