There are moments in life where it seems as though everything is riding on one important decision. If only we had a crystal ball to see the future, we could make those decisions with greater confidence. Fortune-telling aside, there are actually methods to improve our predictions—and our decisions.In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at what makes some people “superforecasters.” In 2010, the United States government had been looking for Al Qaeda leader and perpetrator of the 9/11 attacks, Osama bin Laden, for nearly a decade. Years of intelligence gathering all over the world had come up short. It seemed every new tip was a dead end. But one small group of CIA analysts uncovered a tantalizing clue that led them to a compound in Pakistan. Soon, the president of the United States would be faced with a difficult choice: to approve the top-secret mission or not.We will hear this story from two perspectives. Peter Bergen is a national security commentator and author of the book The Rise and Fall of Osama bin Laden. He interviewed Osama bin Laden in 1997.Former CIA director Leon Panetta led the United States government’s hunt for bin Laden and describes the night his mission came to a dramatic conclusion.Next, Katy speaks with Barbara Mellers about research that shows how so-called superforecasters make more accurate predictions despite facing uncertainty and conflicting information. You can read more in the paper titled "Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions."Barabara Mellers is the I. George Heyman University Professor of both marketing at the Wharton School and of psychology at the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania. Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book, How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0623-3UG1)

If you ran a survey at a science fiction convention to find out which movies were most popular with the general public, chances are good that the results would lean heavily towards sci-fi films. This skewing of data is plain to see in this context, but in many others it’s less obvious and potentially more pernicious.In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at a bias that can distort information that we gather from the world around us.First, W. Joseph Campbell tells the story of the infamous Literary Digest election poll of 1936. The publication had correctly predicted several presidential elections in the 1920s and '30s and was considered the most reputable pollster of its day. They sent millions of surveys to people across the United States in advance of the 1936 election. But this time, their predictions couldn’t have been further from the results.W. Joseph Campbell is a professor of communications at American University and author of Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections.Next, Katy speaks with Emily Oster about research that shows how a bias in the way information is collected and presented can affect many decisions, especially ones related to health and parenting. You can read more in her latest book, The Family Firm: A Data-Driven Guide to Better Decision Making in the Early School Years.Emily Oster is the JJE Goldman Sachs University Professor of Economics at Brown University.Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book, How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0523-38JC) 

On this special bonus episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we highlight Ripple Effect, a new podcast from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Hosted by Dan Loney, Ripple Effect showcases research by Wharton faculty and shares what their insights mean for you.As part of a series on women and work, this episode of Ripple Effect features Choiceology host and Wharton professor Katy Milkman. After years of conducting research on gender bias in the workplace, Katy has reached a singular conclusion: Systemic change is necessary to create long-lasting progress towards diversity, equity, and inclusion. She shares some insights from her most significant studies on diversity training and hiring bias.You can listen to more episodes of Ripple Effect at whr.tn/rippleeffect or wherever you get your podcasts.Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0523-3GFY)

We all make decisions involving risk. Decisions like trying out for your school’s chess team, speaking up when you don’t agree with your boss, or going down a double-black-diamond run at the end of a long day of skiing. So how do we determine which risks are worth taking and which ones are too … risky?In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at gender differences around confidence and uncertainty, and how we can all better calibrate our bravado.Surfing waves as tall as apartment buildings takes a lot of strength and skill and preparation. It also involves risk—mistakes can lead to broken bones, concussions, or worse. But as Bianca Valenti explains, those risks can be managed, and there are big rewards in those big waves.Bianca Valenti is a world-champion surfer, speaker, activist, and entrepreneur. Watch her award-winning ride for the Mavericks Awards.Next, Katy speaks with Katherine Coffman about research that explores how gender stereotypes shape beliefs about taking risks.You can read more in the working paper she co-authored, called "A (Dynamic) Investigation of Stereotypes, Belief-Updating, and Behavior."Katherine Coffman is the Piramal Associate Professor of Business Administration in the Negotiations, Organizations & Markets unit at the Harvard Business School.Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book, How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0423-3619)

Finding a new favorite celebrity feels a little bit like falling in love. Perhaps you find their smile endearing, or you relate to their sense of humor. Maybe you see things in your everyday routine that remind you of them. You feel like you know them so well. But whether it’s a star athlete or a Hollywood type, the reality is they likely have no idea who you are. In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we explore how we can develop deep connections with complete strangers — and how that in turn makes us feel more known. BTS is the biggest boy band in the world but their popularity is not only thanks to their musical talents and highly choreographed performances. BTS has, like many other K-pop groups in South Korea, perfected the art of cultivating relationships with their fans. But when idols fail to meet fan expectations, there can be drastic consequences. Hannah Sung explains what drew her to BTS and sheds light on the power of their fandom, known as ARMY. Hannah Sung is a journalist and co-founder of the Media Girlfriends podcast company.Crystal Tai tells the story of another K-pop idol, Lee Sungmin, who went from being one of Super Junior’s most popular members to being boycotted for the last decade, due to what is known in the industry as a “dating scandal.” Crystal Tai is a senior managing editor at Jing Daily and author of the book Honjok.Next, Katy speaks with Anuj Shah about research that shows even small tidbits of information about a stranger can cause people to mistakenly think that stranger knows them, and how a neighborhood policing initiative tested this hypothesis with surprising results.You can read more in a paper he co-authored called Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity.Anuj Shah is an associate professor of behavioral science at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.Choiceology is an original podcast fromCharles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/podcast.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresAll expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(00423-3ZRB)