Tomorrow, Canadians head to the polls after a 40-day campaign that turned the political landscape upside down. In this special election preview episode of inFocus with David Coletto, David breaks down Abacus Data’s final poll results, offering insights into how the race shifted from a likely Conservative win to a competitive contest now favouring the Liberals under Mark Carney.
David explores the emotional undercurrents driving voter decisions, the key ballot questions around change and stability, the leaders' brands as the campaign ends, and what the final vote estimates suggest. He also highlights the critical role turnout could play — and why a late Conservative surge, while unlikely, can’t be entirely ruled out.
If you want a clear, data-driven snapshot of where things stand heading into Election Day, this episode will get you ready for the results to come.
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6:38
Liberals lead by 3 in the latest Abacus Data poll
With just days left before Canadians head to the polls, David Coletto breaks down the latest Abacus Data polling and what it tells us about where the 2025 federal election stands. In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto, David unpacks why the Liberals continue to hold a modest lead over the Conservatives, despite a strong public desire for change.
He explores how Mark Carney’s personal appeal, regional vote strength, and the shifting ballot question—from Trump to affordability—are shaping the campaign’s final stretch. David also shares insights on what impact, if any, the leaders’ debates had, and what to watch for in the closing days of the campaign.
If you want a quick, data-driven pulse check on the election—and what’s really motivating Canadian voters—this episode is for you.
Listen now to understand where things stand, why the Liberals remain the favourites, and what could still shift in the days ahead.
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6:33
Disruptophobia: How 2025 Flipped the Risk Equation in the Canadian election
In this episode of inFocus, David Coletto unpacks one of the most surprising shifts of the 2025 federal election: how fear of disruption—what he calls disruptophobia—has flipped the campaign narrative on its head. What began as a change election defined by frustration with the Liberals has become a search for stability in an uncertain world.
David explains how Mark Carney’s rise, Donald Trump’s return to the White House, and growing public anxiety about global chaos have reframed the ballot question. Drawing on fresh data from Abacus Data, he explores how the desire for reassurance, not revolution, is driving voter behaviour—and why Carney now leads in most polls.
If you want to understand what’s really going on beneath the surface of this campaign, and why Canadians may be choosing the lower-risk option rather than the loudest voice, this is an episode you won’t want to miss.
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7:01
The Liberal lead drops again...it's now down to 2
With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, the latest Abacus Data poll finds the federal race tightening. In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto, David unpacks the key findings from a new survey conducted just ahead of the French and English leaders’ debates.
He explores why the Liberal lead has shrunk from six to just two points, how a resurgence in the desire for change is benefiting Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, and what issues are driving voter decisions now. Cost of living is back on top, while Trump’s influence on the campaign appears to be fading.
David also breaks down regional dynamics, leadership impressions, and what tonight’s and tomorrow’s debates could mean for the trajectory of the race. With advance voting starting this weekend and Canadians paying close attention, this episode offers a timely snapshot of where things stand—and what to watch for next.
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5:51
What is happening to NDP support?
In this episode of inFocus with David Coletto, we explore the dramatic collapse in support for the NDP in the 2025 federal election. Based on our latest Abacus Data survey, the NDP has seen its committed vote plummet from around 18% to just 9%. We dive into the reasons behind this significant shift, examining the two key groups of voters—those still loyal to the NDP and those who are now voting Liberal instead.
David Coletto discusses the political context driving these changes, including the rise of Mark Carney as a stabilizing force for many progressive voters, and the role of strategic voting in this high-stakes election. With fears of a Conservative government under Pierre Poilievre and concerns about Donald Trump’s impact on Canada, many voters who once leaned NDP are now casting their ballots for the Liberals in an attempt to stop what they perceive as a greater threat.
Tune in for a data-driven analysis of this critical shift and what it means for the NDP’s chances as the 2025 election unfolds.
For the past 15 years, I’ve built one of Canada’s leading polling and public opinion research firms: Abacus Data.
And in that time, my team and I interviewed hundreds of thousands of Canadians and hosted focus groups across the country.
This podcast will feature conversations with smart, curious, and interesting people who love politics, public policy, and figuring out what makes people think and act the way they do.
If you work in polling or market research, public affairs, public relations, government relations, advocacy, or in communications – this podcast is for you.
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